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Weekly Forex Outlook

46b6638e-629e-45ea-88c2-90ba099302bd

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Focus Turns to Bailout of Citibank and US Automakers

Wed, Nov 26 2008, 06:36 GMT
by Easy Forex Team

Easy Forex

Last week’s currency trading review

The Dollar had a mixed week gaining on the back of Oil falling below $50 a barrel but losing ground against the Yen as stocks hit multi year lows. New York Fed Chief Tim Geithner was names as Obama’s Treasury. The FOMC meeting showed an increasingly weak economic picture. The Fed also showed concern that it must act to stop deflationary pressure emerging. CPI fell 1% in October and PPI dropped 2.8%. Weekly Jobless claims jumped to 542K the highest level since 1992. The Euro ended unchanged but was under sever pressure during the week as economic data darkened and stocks were sold off. EUR/JPY selling was the biggest sources of pressure as 1.2500 propped up the major. November Services PMI fell to 43.3 and Manufacturing dropped to 36.2. The EUR/USD lost 0.1% closing at 1.2589, after opening the week at 1.2602. The Japanese Yen strengthened for the 3rd week as US stock once again tested the downside with the S&P hitting 11 year lows. The BoJ kept rates at 0.3% even as the GDP fell to -0.1% in Q3. The USD/JPY lost -1.22% closing at 95.91 after opening at 97.08. The GBP staged a solid recovery as the market was seen short. Helping was the Proactive government response to stimulate the economy. The GBP/USD gained 1.25% closing at 1.4920 after opening at 1.4734. The AUD weakened considerable as the carry trade currency was sold as stocks continued to track lower. Retail Sales were worse than expected rising 0.1% vs. 0.6% previously. Falling commodities also weighed. The AUD/USD closed down 2.47% at 0.6320 after opening at 0.6476.

The forex trading week preview

In the States; GDP on Tuesday will be the Highlight expected to fall to -0.5% vs. -0.3% in Q2. Also released CB Consumer Confidence seen unchanged at 38 in November. On Wednesday we have weekly Jobless claims seen at 530K vs. 542K. Also released Durable Orders in October seen at -3.0% vs. 0.8% previously. No Data released on Thursday or Friday as this is the Thanks Giving Holiday. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.

In the Eurozone; On Wednesday the market expects CPI in Nov to ease to 1.7% vs. 2.4% previously. On Thursday the ILO October Unemployment rate is expected unchanged at 7.1%. On Friday we have November Eurozone CPI seen at 2.5% vs. 3.2% previously. With an Unemployment rate to increase 7.6%. In the UK; light data week with the Q3 GDP the highlight expected at -0.5%. On Friday Consumer confidence is seen unchanged at -36. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.

In Japan; On Friday we have October Unemployment seen at 4.2% vs. 4.0% previously. Also released the October CPI seen at 1.7% vs. 2.1% previously. Industrial production for October seen falling 2.5% vs. +1.1% previously. October Retail Sales are seen -1.0% vs. -0.3%. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.

In Australia; no data this week with the market waiting for the RBA meeting next month on the 2nd of December. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

• Euro – 1.2615
  
  Initial support at 1.2425 (Nov 21 low) followed by 1.2389 (Nov 13 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2638 (Nov 21 low) at followed by 1.2814 (Nov 19 high)

• Yen – 95.20
  
  Initial support is located at 93.62 (Nov 20 low) followed by 93.20 (Nov 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 96.23 (Nov 20 high) followed by 97.55 (Nov 13 high).

• Pound – 1.4895
  
  nitial support at 1.4713 (Nov 20 low) followed by 1.4647 (Nov 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5060 (Nov 21 high) followed by 1.5249 (Nov 19).

• Australian Dollar – 0.6260
  
  Initial support at 0.6077 (Nov 20 low) followed by the 0.6009 (Oct 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6315 (Nov 21 high) followed by 0.6416 (Nov 20 high).

• Gold – 795
  
  Initial support at 725.40 (Nov 14 low) followed by 700 (Nov 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 801 (Nov 21 high) followed by 810 (Key level).

Published on  Wed, Nov 26 2008, 06:46 GMT