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The Daily Forecaster

Thu, Aug 28 2008, 03:23 GMT
by Ian Copsey

FX-Forecaster.com

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Bias:  While 1.0455 caps I feel the larger risk remains lower for 1.0345-50

Daily Bullish

Price did see losses yesterday but without following-through. However, I feel this will happen today. Thus any stronger bullish stance is going to require a break back above the 1.0455 pivot resistance and this should signal a retest at 1.0495-10. Even within a bearish structure this resistance should cap. Thus only look for stronger gains on a break above 1.0510 and if seen price should then see follow-through to 1.0560 and probably above 1.0590 into the congestion area around 1.0620-50.      

Medium Term Bullish
27th August:   The break above 1.0533 saw a cap at 1.0560 from where a new low has been seen. It does tend to suggest that a buying opportunity will now arise around 1.0350. Only an earlier break above 1.0560 sees follow-through for 1.0726 again. 

Daily Bearish

Yesterday's price action was a bit of a mess but with the 1.0495 area remaining untouched the bias does still seem lower. This morning has seen a break below the 1.0455 pivot area which should now provide resistance. A break below 1.0425 will allow extension to 1.0397. This should see a minor correction before losses to the favored target at 1.0345-50.

27th August: While I was caught out yesterday, the way it ended up seems to imply we have one final decline to come and to the ideal 1.0345-50 support which should hold. Only below extends to 1.0260-88 and that will need to break to maintain losses further.  

Elliott Wave Comments

27th August:

I have had to revert to a triple three count following yesterday's disappointing break above 1.0533 which then saw 1.0560 cap for losses to a marginal new low. It seems therefore that 1.0560 was the second Wave x and 1.0410 the final Wave a. This should mean that we have probably seen the Wave b end at 1.0495 (only above the 66.7% retracement at 1.0510 would concern) and thus Wave c should target the wave equality target at 1.0345 which is just 5 points below the 50% retracement in Wave -iv- at 1.0350.

Any earlier break above 1.0503 & 1.0560 suggests we have seen the Wave (b) at 1.0410 and thus the main direction has reversed higher.

28th August:

In spite of yesterday’s flat type structure it does still seem to point to direct losses to the 138.2% projection of the 1.0495-1.0425 decline in a minor Wave iii to 1.0397. Expect a very shallow Wave iv before losses to the 1.0345-50 target.

• The Brief Daily Forecaster

Published on  Thu, Aug 28 2008, 03:27 GMT