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Slovakia: Monthly forecast
Price development
Fri, Dec 7 2007, 08:36 GMT
by Mária Valachyová
Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG
In November, we expect consumer prices to increase by 0.4% on the month, due to higher prices of food, services and imputed rents. On annual basis, inflation should slow down by two notches to 3.1% (HICP to 2.2%). Maastricht inflation criterion will very likely be fulfilled again.
Real economy
After recovery in September, production sector likely continued in double-digit growth rates through October. Due to temporary pick-up in imports ahead of Christmas, we expect foreign trade to return to a mild deficit (after Septembers surplus). The Eurostat already released October retail sales showing low 2% annual growth, which is the second low reading in a row. However, retail sales are not a good indicator of household consumption recently (e.g. household consumption increased by real 8.2% y/y in 3Q07).
Implications for koruna and monetary policy
We remain optimistic on the koruna, which we see stronger in the coming weeks, especially should the regional sentiment remain supportive (although there are some upside risks to our long held end-year forecast of 32.50 SKK/EUR). Nevertheless, these levels might be reached at the beginning of 2008. The koruna still works in favour of tighter monetary conditions, hence, the central bank will very likely stay put in December.
Published on Fri, Dec 7 2007, 08:39 GMT
Archive
- Food and fuels have likely continued to weigh on inflation in June
Published On Mon, Jul 7 2008, 15:18 GMT - March 2008
Published On Fri, Mar 7 2008, 09:27 GMT - Changes over previous version
Published On Fri, Feb 8 2008, 10:50 GMT - Price development
Published On Fri, Dec 7 2007, 08:36 GMT - Price development
Published On Fri, Oct 5 2007, 08:11 GMT
Erste Bank
http://global.treasury.erstebank.com | Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at
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This document is intended as an additional information source, aimed towards our customers. It is based on the best resources available to the authors at press time. The information and data sources utilised are deemed reliable, however, Erste Bank Sparkassen (CR) and affiliates do not take any responsibility for accuracy nor completeness of the information contained herein. This document is neither an offer nor an invitation to buy or sell any securities.Interested in forex trading? forex brokerage firms!
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