Mon, Jul 7 2008, 15:18 GMT
by Mária Valachyová
Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG
Food and fuels have likely continued to weigh on inflation also in June. We expect consumer price index to increase by 0.2% on the month, which should help to bring annual inflation slightly down, to 4.5% from 4.6% in May. Industrial production should continue growing at a solid pace in May; we in line with the market expect growth at around 8% y/y, while foreign trade is expected to narrow its deficit.
On Tuesday, European authorities will approve and made public the final SKK/EUR conversion rate. Last week, press agencies brought information that the European Commission will propose the current ERM-2 central parity (i.e. 30.1260 SKK/EUR) as the final conversion rate. Should this happen, the approval of the conversion rate at the parity is almost certain. Until last week, we considered the round figure of 30.0 SKK/EUR as likely alternative (the rounded conversion rate would be better for practical reasons). However, after last week news, the ERM-2 central parity level looks more probable.
On the monetary policy front, no change in the key Slovak interest rate is expected in July. The ECB hiked its interest rates to 4.25%, which is also the level of the Slovak key 2W repo rate. Before January 2009, the NBS will narrow O/N rate corridor to standard ECBs 100bp, possibly already in July (we do not expect this to have a significant impact on money market). Until the year-end, the ECB is (according to our Erste Bank colleges) expected to keep rates stable. However, should the ECB change the interest rates, the NBS will follow the suit.
Published on Mon, Jul 7 2008, 15:18 GMT
Fri, Mar 7 2008, 09:27 GMT
by Mária Valachyová
Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG
We expect annual inflation to stagnate at January levels (CPI at 3.8% and HICP at 3.2% y/y, respectively). On the monthly base, we expect only very mild increase in prices of non-energy industrial goods and services. The inflation should stay below the Maastricht limit with a wide margin of around one percentage point at least until April, when the inflation criterion will be officially evaluated.
January brought an acceleration of retail sales growth. While we expected quickening from 5% in December to 8.3% due to favourable base effect, the Eurostat suggested that the actual figure was even higher, at 15.6% y/y. The shifting sale season from the Christmas time towards the beginning of the year could also partially explain the strong January growth. Industrial production reached in January around 6% in our view. The trade balance should significantly improve as compared to December, as the imports of consumer goods likely slowed down.
Released data will have only limited impact on the market, which currently pays attention mostly to the statements of the government and NBS officials regarding the preferences for the EURSKK conversion rate. Volatility might persist as the NBS officials are split on how strong the conversion rate should be. We expect the koruna to end the month at around 32.50 SKK/EUR, while we stick to the expectations of the conversion rate at around 32.5-33.0 SKK/EUR, depending on where the spot rate will be in the time of ERM-2 parity revaluation or the setting of the conversion rate. We would expect the ERM-2 parity revaluation to happen already this month.
Published on Fri, Mar 7 2008, 09:27 GMT
Fri, Feb 8 2008, 10:50 GMT
by Erste Bank Bond Research Team
Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG
Growing fears that the economic growth in the Eurozone indeed slows down below its potential during 2008 erased the expectations for a 25bp rate hike by the ECB at end-2008. In turn, we anticipate flat European interest rates this year and a rate cut by the NBS in 2Q08 (to 4.0%). We increased our estimate of producer prices in 2008 due to revision of our expectations regarding energy prices for production sector (natural gas and heat).
Real economy
The Slovak economy likely reached the record growth rate in 2007, close to 9% after 8.5% seen in 2006. The economy benefited from established foreign direct investments, placed mainly in the automotive industry. In 2008, the growth will likely slow down slightly to 7.2% due to lower contribution of net export (the car factories will not deliver such one-off boost as was seen in 2007) and due to some slowdown of household consumption growth. The GDP growth should remain balanced (driven by both external and domestic demand).
External balance
The foreign trade deficit narrowed significantly from 4.5% of GDP in 2006 to projected 0.9% in 2007, as car exports revived strongly. Production of two newly built factories (PSA and KIA) should have increased from 80,000 cars in 2006 to almost 400,000 in 2007. Also, investmentrelated imports slowed down. Along with the trade balance, the current account deficit should have narrowed as well to around 4% of GDP. We expect the trade balance to register only a slight deficit next year.
Published on Fri, Feb 8 2008, 10:50 GMT
Fri, Dec 7 2007, 08:36 GMT
by Mária Valachyová
Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG
In November, we expect consumer prices to increase by 0.4% on the month, due to higher prices of food, services and imputed rents. On annual basis, inflation should slow down by two notches to 3.1% (HICP to 2.2%). Maastricht inflation criterion will very likely be fulfilled again.
Real economy
After recovery in September, production sector likely continued in double-digit growth rates through October. Due to temporary pick-up in imports ahead of Christmas, we expect foreign trade to return to a mild deficit (after Septembers surplus). The Eurostat already released October retail sales showing low 2% annual growth, which is the second low reading in a row. However, retail sales are not a good indicator of household consumption recently (e.g. household consumption increased by real 8.2% y/y in 3Q07).
Implications for koruna and monetary policy
We remain optimistic on the koruna, which we see stronger in the coming weeks, especially should the regional sentiment remain supportive (although there are some upside risks to our long held end-year forecast of 32.50 SKK/EUR). Nevertheless, these levels might be reached at the beginning of 2008. The koruna still works in favour of tighter monetary conditions, hence, the central bank will very likely stay put in December.
Published on Fri, Dec 7 2007, 08:36 GMT
Fri, Oct 5 2007, 08:11 GMT
by Mária Valachyová
Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG
Price development
In September, we expect consumer prices to increase by 0.2% on the month, reflecting higher prices of food (namely of milk products) and services. That is a notch higher than the consensus of the market. Due to the lower base from year ago the annual inflation will jump to 2.8% from 2.3% in August. Harmonised inflation will likewise increase to 1.6% y/y, up from 1.2% seen in August. However, positive inflation outlook remains unaltered; we expect Slovakia to keep on meeting the Maastricht inflation criterion until the time of euro preparedness evaluation (i.e. till spring 2008).
Real economy
August production figures will likely be distorted by the summer holidays in car factories. We expect industrial production to slow down to 10% in August from extraordinary 19% growth seen in July (temporary increase in production of energy stood behind the Julys rise). Foreign trade should mimic lower industrial production in August, resulting in a deficit of SKK 2.4bn. Consumer spending should remain strong (the Eurostat already published retail sales growth at 5.2% y/y, though using different methodology than the Slovak Stat Office).
Implications for koruna and monetary policy
The koruna eased in past weeks due to increased risk to the timely euro adoption, connected to the Eurostat request to include debt of highway and railway companies and public media to fiscal balances (increasing deficit for 2006 and to lesser extent for the following years). The exact extent of the revision is still not known, making the markets jittery at the moment, although MinFin officials suggested the revision for the 2007 (relevant for euro adoption) at 0.2-0.3% of GDP, which would not be significant threat to the meeting of the fiscal criteria. Once the final verdict of the Eurostat will be known, we would expect renewed appreciation of the koruna. Official interest rates should stay unchanged in October for the sixth month in a row. Despite positive inflation outlook, there exist inflation risks for 2008, keeping the NBS in cautious stance. Hence, we pinpoint stable interest rates at the end of October.
Published on Fri, Oct 5 2007, 08:11 GMT
Wed, Aug 8 2007, 15:56 GMT
by Mária Valachyová
Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG
In July, we expect consumer prices to stagnate at the level from June, as lower prices of seasonal food should have outweighed the more expensive services. On annual basis, we expect deceleration of the inflation rate to 2.4% from 2.5% in June. HICP index should decline even more in our view, to 1.3% y/y, putting the 12-month average at 2.7%, which should be still slightly above Maastricht reference limit (in August, the inflation could already fall below the Maastricht limit).
This month we will see a flash estimate of the second quarter GDP. Economy maintained strong growth momentum, judging by available monthly indicators and economic sentiment data. The economic growth was likely again driven by both domestic and foreign demand, similarly as in the first quarter. The market expects figure between 9-10%, we pinpoint 9.1%. Monthly data for June will confirm ongoing strong activity in industry, supporting also external balances (foreign trade deficit should narrow further on 12-month cumulative basis to 3.2% of GDP from 3.4% seen month ago). May current account balance surprised with a smaller-than-expected deficit, we read this as a partial inter-temporal shift of the dividend outflow from May to June.
In short-term, the Slovak market will be further determined by global risk appetite, hence occasional swings of the exchange rate might persist. In longer time span, we expect gradual appreciation of the koruna (to 32.50 SKK/EUR till the year-end). For monetary policy, market including us is unified in expectations for the rates to remain on hold in August. Currently, the koruna is not under strong appreciation pressure to necessitate central banks action. Should the koruna firm to around 32.8 SKK/EUR, we would rather expect interventions and repo under acceptance than the interest rate reduction. Also, with the ECB expected to hike rates by 25bp already in September to 4.25%, we think that the Slovak central bank would not want to lower interest rates below the level prevailing in the Euro zone.
Published on Wed, Aug 8 2007, 15:56 GMT
Thu, Jun 7 2007, 07:24 GMT
by Mária Valachyová
Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG
Inflation is expected to slow down in May by both the market and us. We expect national CPI to have increased by 0.2% on the month reflecting higher prices of seasonal food, services and fuels. That should still bring the annual inflation rate down to 2.5% from 2.7% month ago. EU-norm inflation (HICP index) is likely to have decreased to 1.8% y/y, also two notches down from the April level. Favourable inflation trend should continue, while inflation would likely fall within Maastricht limits already since July/August (criteria will be evaluated only next spring). Demand driven inflation pressures should remain muted. Core CPI ex food, fuels and imputed rents (our preferred proxy for demand driven inflation pressures) have likely reached relatively low level of 1.4% y/y.
Supply side of economy remains strong, supported by vivid external demand. We expect industrial production to post around 15% annual growth rate (mainly thanks to cars), resulting in more favourable foreign trade balance than year ago. From demand side, the Eurostat has already released Slovak April retail sales growth (though using different methodology than the Slovak Stats Office does). The figure points at growth at around 5.8% y/y (above our original estimate of 5%) which is in line with growth seen in the previous month.
We expect the central bank to remain in a wait-and-see mode due to weaker koruna, which tightens monetary condition less than it did in the first quarter. As the dividend outflow reaches currently its peak and region sentiment is somewhat weaker, koruna weakened above 34.0 SKK/EUR as we expected. We think that the currency should return on the appreciation path again in the second half of the year, hence, the current levels of SKK might be a good opportunity for buy. We changed our monetary policy outlook as compared to month ago, as the expectations for the European rates to increase above 4% picked up substantially. Accordingly, we see the Slovak interest rates on hold till the year-end, while the European rates should converge to the Slovak interest rates by the autumn.
Published on Thu, Jun 7 2007, 07:24 GMT
Mon, May 7 2007, 14:07 GMT
by Mária Valachyová
Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG
Consumer inflation should have stayed during April on a track of gradual deceleration and confirm positive inflationary picture. April CPI index is expected to grow by a modest 0.1% m/m, due to more expensive fuels, which should put the headline figure at 2.6%, a notch down from the 2.7% seen in March. EU-norm inflation (HICP index) is likely to have decelerated to 1.8% in our view.
We will see a flash GDP growth for the first quarter, which is expected to exceed 10 % y/y both by the market and us (the main driver were likely exports due to launch of production at car and electronics plants). The annual pace of industrial production growth in March (to be released ahead of flash GDP growth) should have slowed down to below 13%, due to the stronger base. The Eurostat has already released Slovak March retail sales growth (though using different methodology than the Slovak Stats Office does). The figure points at somewhat higher sales growth pace than we assumed (at around 6% y/y instead of 4% expected by us).
After two consequtive interest rate cuts in the past two months, we expect the central bank to take a pause in the cutting cycle, mainly due ot stabilized koruna exchange rate. We expect the koruna to weaken in the coming month due to dividend outflows to 34.0 SKK/EUR. The Slovak currency should return on the appreciation path again in the third quarter, when the central bank would finish harmonization of the Slovak interest rates to the level of European ones with the final 25bp rate cut (we expect a 25bp hike in European rates in June). Risk to this scenario might be the better-than-expected data (especially GDP growth), triggering renewed appreciation pressure on the koruna.
Published on Mon, May 7 2007, 14:07 GMT
Fri, Apr 6 2007, 07:31 GMT
by Mária Valachyová
Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG
Overall consumer price index was likely to have increased in March by the same 0.2% as in the previous month (the main culprits being fuels and services), bringing annual inflation up a notch to 2.8%, from 2.7% in February. EU-norm prices (HICP index) are likely to have increased to 2.1% in our view. The positive inflation outlook should remain unchanged (we see HICP inflation at 1.6% by the year-end).
Real data will provide a picture of diverging dynamics of production and consumption. While industrial production should have put in yet another strong performance, resulting in a favorable trade balance (likely with a surplus for the second month running), domestic consumption should show signs of cooling; we expect a low reading for retail sales growth for the second month in a row, although stronger than in January. The data would be in line with the expected switch in the driving forces of the GDP growth (with external demand taking over the lead).
Real data as well as inflation numbers will stay aside of the markets interest (the story of strong economic growth and the euro adoption in 2009 is broadly expected). Unless the regional sentiment worsens, we can expect further strengthening of the koruna in a near term (motivated by speculative rather than real flows). The central banks action against firming koruna might continue, although interventions at weaker levels than the CB intervened before were a bit surprising.
Massive interventions (estimated at EUR 2.6bn in March and April combined) make the currency more vulnerable in the case of a sudden sentiment change. Hence, it could happen that the CB would appear later on, intervening on the weaker side of the parity (35.44 EUR/SKK +2.25%, i.e. 36.24 EUR/SKK). After March interest rate cut (when the CB lowered the key 2W repo rate by 25bp, overnight sterilization rate by 75bp to 2.5% and overnight refinancing rate by 25bp to 6.0%), the CB renewed acceptance in a 2W repo tender. Last Tuesday, maximum accepted yield stood at 4.0%, below the official 2W repo rate of 4.5%. We think that the central bank might want to normalize the situation on the money market and lower official interest rates by 25bp as soon as in April (especially if O/N sterilization rate stays on hold). The rate cut would also be in line with the strong koruna, which has repeatedly been objected to by central bank officials.
Published on Fri, Apr 6 2007, 07:31 GMT
Thu, Jan 11 2007, 08:07 GMT
by Mária Valachyová
Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG
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Published on Thu, Jan 11 2007, 08:07 GMT
Thu, Dec 7 2006, 11:41 GMT
by Mária Valachyová
Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG
| Date | Indicator | Period | Our estimate | Min | Market Average | Max | Previous | Year ago | |
| 7-Dec | GDP estimate | % y/y | 3Q 2006 | 9.8 | - | - | - | 6.7 | 6.3 |
| 8-Dec | Industrial production | % y/y | Oct-06 | 11.4 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 14.4 | 9.7 | 4.9 |
| 11-Dec | CPI inflation | % m/m | Nov-06 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 11-Dec | CPI inflation | % y/y | Nov-06 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| 11-Dec | Core inflation | % m/m | Nov-06 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| 11-Dec | Core inflation | % y/y | Nov-06 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 12-Dec | Foreign trade | SKK bn | Oct-06 | -4.1 | 0.2 | -3.9 | -8.5 | -9.5 | -6.8 |
| 13-Dec | Retail sales | % y/y | Oct-06 | 11.0 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 12.0 | 10.6 | 14.4 |
| 15-Dec | EU-harmonised inflation | % y/y | Nov-06 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 3.6 |
| 19-Dec | 2W repo rate | % | Dec-06 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.85 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 3.00 |
| 19-Dec | Current account | SKK bn | Oct-06 | -4.6 | -3.5 | -4.6 | -5.5 | -14.4 | -6.1 |
| 27-Dec | PPI | % y/y | Nov-06 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 7.4 |
| 31-Dec | EURSKK | Dec-06 | 35.90 | 35.5 | 35.8 | 36.0 | 35.49 | 37.85 |
Economic growth for 3Q will be very likely confirmed near 10%, at the level close to previous flash estimate of the Stats Office. Released structure will show dominant contribution of investments especially of inventories, next to the steady household consumption growth and accelerating external demand. Strong economic activity has likely sustained also through the final quarter of the year we expect strong October data from selected sectors (industrial production, retail and industrial sales).
After declining to 3.7% in October, inflation will nose higher for the next two months, to 3.9% y/y, in our estimates. The main reason will be increase in the prices of gas for households (last year, gas prices rose a month earlier, in October, so base effects will cause slight annual acceleration this November). In January, prices of gas will decline by 4% again, erasing substantial part of the November rise. In addition, prices of other energies will rise only marginally in January (if at all), paving the way for disinflation to less than 3% in January and to around 2% in December 2007. Nevertheless, the central bank continues to identify up-side risks to inflation from demand pressures (given wage and employment growths), especially in an environment of fast economic growth. Therefore, we still keep expectations for one interest rate hike in near-term. Also, it remains unclear how the European authorities would tackle recent development of Slovak prices of energies when judging Maastricht inflation criterion - as possible zero growth in energy prices might be partially ascribed to political pressure of the current government rather than to market conditions (favourable oil price development).
The NBS stayed on hold in November after raising rates in September, as the stronger koruna helped to tighten monetary conditions. Improved inflation outlook diminishes need for interest rate hike, however, risks from strong demand and possible correction of the koruna might lead the central bank to raising the interest rates once more in near term. That would be the last hike before a period of stable rates in our view. After steep strengthening in the past months, we expect profit taking to take place on the FX market and see the unit at 35.90 SKK/EUR at year-end. Appreciation of the koruna should resume in 1Q07 when we expect the exchange rate at 35.2 SKK/EUR.
Published on Thu, Dec 7 2006, 11:41 GMT
Wed, Nov 8 2006, 15:29 GMT
by Mária Valachyová
Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG
October inflation saw a significant decline to 3.6% in our view, down from 4.6 % in September (in national CPI measure), due to base effects (energy prices increased by 4.4% in October last year adding 1pp to inflation, while this October only prices of heat will go up adding only 0.1pp to CPI). In addition, prices of fuel declined by 5% in October. Core inflation (ex regulated prices, food and fuels) should slightly decline to 2.6% y/y from 2.7% seen in September. While prices of gas will increase in November by 4%, they should according to the recent local news decline again in January by 3%, which makes outlook for the next-year inflation brighter (we and the NBS counted with an increase of gas prices in January 2007). End- 2007 inflation should thus reach 2.2% instead of our earlier estimate of 2.5%, coming closer to the target of the NBS defined as 2%. Nevertheless, the central bank continues to identify up-side risks to inflation from demand pressures (given wage and employment growths), which justifies our expectations of one more small interest rate hike till the end of the year.
Real economy
On supply side, industrial production sustained a strong double-digit growth pace at the end of the third quarter (we estimate 13.2% y/y pace), fuelled by strong external demand from the Euro zone, which should also transfer into the narrowing trade deficit in September (over the previous month). Domestic demand likely posted another strong growth in September. While we estimated 8.3% y/y real retail sales growth, actual number might be higher, as hinted by the Eurostat's release at 10.8% y/y).
Implications for koruna and monetary policy
The NBS stayed on hold in October after raising rates in September, and at the same time has slightly “eased” its previous hawkish rhetoric. Nevertheless, monetary conditions seem to be still loose at the moment, therefore unless the koruna continues to appreciate strongly, we see the central bank as raising the interest rates once more till the end of the year. That would be the last hike before a period of stable rates in our view. After steep strengthening in the past month, when the koruna advanced by 3%, we expect profit taking to take place on the FX market and see the unit to ease back to 36.50 SKK/EUR till the end of November.
Published on Wed, Nov 8 2006, 15:29 GMT
Mon, Oct 9 2006, 14:47 GMT
by Mária Valachyová
Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG
Steep decline in oil and fuel prices will dominate September inflation numbers. We expect headline CPI to dip by 0.1% on the month (thanks to fuels), bringing the headline year-on-year inflation down to 4.8% from 5.1% seen in August. CPI ex regulated prices and changes in indirect taxes (core CPI) likely dipped slightly more, while CPI further adjusted for prices of fuel likely continued in a growing tendency seen in the previous months. Looking ahead, inflation should gradually decline on favourable base effects as increase in regulated prices of energies will be lower than year ago (hike in prices of heat in October and of gas in November should add together 0.6pp to the CPI). We see national CPI at 4.0% and 2.5% in December 06 and December 07, respectively.
Published on Mon, Oct 9 2006, 14:47 GMT
Fri, Jun 16 2006, 09:31 GMT
by Michal Musâk
Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG
Published on Fri, Jun 16 2006, 09:34 GMT
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