Monthly Forecasts
This report has been deactivated
0
0
Slovakia: October 2008
Wed, Oct 8 2008, 08:30 GMT
by Mária Valachyová
Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG
Price development and real economy
After following an upward trend for the past eight months, the inflation rate will likely decline in September to an annual rate of 4.8%, down from 5.0% in August. The seasonally lower prices of vegetables and lower prices of oil should help to contain growth in cigarette prices in September. Outlook for the final quarter of the year depends on whether the regulatory body okays the hike in energy prices for households (demanded by the gas distributor) or not. Although the oil price development justifies a hike (the gas prices have not been changed since January 2007) the political preference for zero growth in energy prices for households might win. In later case, the inflation rate would gradually decline to 4.6% at the year-end. In former case, which remains our main call (gas +10%, heat +6% before the yearend), the inflation would increase to 5.1% in December.
August industrial production will be interesting to watch for any signs of slowing external demand in hard data. After slow growth in June, which was into large extent caused by unfavorable base effect, we expect the industry to pick up in August and grow by solid 7 % y/y. In line with that we assume relatively small trade deficit in August, at SKK -1.6bn.
Koruna and monetary policy
The koruna stayed near the level of 30.35 SKK/EUR during September and will gradually converge towards its predefined conversion rate of 30.1260 SKK/EUR by the end of the year. Monetary policy takes direction from the ECB steps now. In the light of slowing growth in the Eurozone and declining inflation risks (due to lower oil prices) the ECB might cut its key interest rates earlier than we expected before, at the end of this year or at the beginning of 2009. That would not necessarily mean lower market rates in Slovakia as the Slovak money market rates will have to converge to the European rates by the year-end. Currently, the Slovak rates are well below the European rates due to liquidity strains in Europe (3M Bribor stands at 4.3% while European 3M Euribor at 5.4%).
Published on Wed, Oct 8 2008, 08:41 GMT
Archive
- Slovakia: May 2009
Published On Thu, May 7 2009, 16:56 GMT - Slovakia: April 2009
Published On Thu, Apr 16 2009, 09:08 GMT - Slovakia: March 2009
Published On Wed, Mar 4 2009, 17:38 GMT - Slovakia: February 2009
Published On Mon, Feb 9 2009, 10:00 GMT - Slovakia: January 2009
Published On Fri, Jan 9 2009, 09:33 GMT
Erste Bank
http://global.treasury.erstebank.com | Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
This document is intended as an additional information source, aimed towards our customers. It is based on the best resources available to the authors at press time. The information and data sources utilised are deemed reliable, however, Erste Bank Sparkassen (CR) and affiliates do not take any responsibility for accuracy nor completeness of the information contained herein. This document is neither an offer nor an invitation to buy or sell any securities.Related reports
Weekly Focus - Is it strong enough? by Danske Bank A/S
Fri, Jul 3 2009, 15:00 GMT
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary - A Double Dose of Reality by Wachovia
Fri, Jul 3 2009, 07:31 GMT
Daily Global Commentary - June Labor Market Report – Details Less Bearish than Headlines by Northern Trust
Thu, Jul 2 2009, 22:33 GMT
Forex Trading Strategies - US Employment Report a slightly disappointing mixed bag by Saxo Bank
Thu, Jul 2 2009, 13:41 GMT
London Gold Market Report by BullionVault.com
Wed, Jul 1 2009, 12:56 GMT
Related content
Swiss Jun CPI rises 0.2% MoM and falls 1% YoY
FXstreet.com | Fri, Jul 3 2009, 07:24 GMT
DATA SNAP: Cyprus June CPI +0.2% On Year; -0.14% On Month
Dow Jones | Thu, Jul 2 2009, 10:21 GMT
Brazil Fipe's Index Up 0.13% In June Vs 0.33% In May
Dow Jones | Thu, Jul 2 2009, 10:18 GMT
UPDATE:Italy June Inflation Slows To Lowest Rate Since 1968
Dow Jones | Tue, Jun 30 2009, 11:38 GMT
DATA SNAP: OECD Annual Inflation Rate Hits Record Low In May
Dow Jones | Tue, Jun 30 2009, 10:00 GMT
Interested in forex trading? forex brokerage firms!
GET CASH BACK FOR YOUR TRADES! Learn more about the Pip Rebate Program
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. FXstreet.com has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXstreet.com, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXstreet.com will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
©2009 "FXstreet.com. The Forex Market" All Rights Reserved.