Every week, we are publishing the Experts Forecast Currencies Poll. A pool of selected traders and analysts gives us their targets for the major currencies for the week, month and quarter to come. They also indicate the whole trend in these periods.
The report includes a visual table for each pair, as well as the comments that the experts might have added to their analysis.
Agree or disagree? Comments? Your own forecast? Post your thoughts in the Forecasts discussion group!
| USDJPY | 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Quarter | 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Quarter | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levels | Trend | |||||||
| ©FXstreet.com | Fri, Aug 03 2012, 17:00 GMT | |||||||
| A. Narczewski | 77.50 | 79.00 | 80.00 | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| ANZ FX Strategy Team | - | - | - | Sideways | Sideways | Sideways | ||
| Claudiu Cazacu | 79.50 | 80.20 | 82.00 | Bullish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| Danske Research Team | - | - | 79.00 | - | - | Sideways | ||
| Esteban Mora | 79.00 | 80.00 | 79.00 | Bullish | Bullish | Sideways | ||
| Gavin Grier-Rees | 78.40 | 78.40 | 78.40 | Bearish | Sideways | Sideways | ||
| Gonçalo Moreira, CMT | 79.00 | 77.60 | 76.70 | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| ICN.com analysis team | 79.55 | 80.50 | 84.15 | Bullish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| Joshua Martinez | 78.22 | 76.00 | 81.00 | Bearish | Bearish | Bullish | ||
| Malik Khan | 79.83 | 76.01 | 75.99 | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| Mauricio Carrillo | 79.40 | 80.00 | 79.00 | Bullish | Bullish | Sideways | ||
| Rabobank Financial Markets Research Team | 78.20 | 80.00 | 80.00 | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| RBS Team | - | - | 79.00 | - | - | Sideways | ||
| UBS FX Research Team | - | 78.00 | 78.00 | Sideways | Bearish | Sideways | ||
| UniCredit Research | - | - | 79.00 | - | - | Sideways | ||
| Valeria Bednarik | 79.10 | 78.00 | 78.00 | Bullish | Bearish | Sideways | ||
| Yohay Elam | 78.00 | 79.00 | 82.00 | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| Average | 78.81 | 78.67 | 79.45 | Bullish | Sideways | Bullish | ||
A sustained breakout above 78.50 is needed to confirm the bullish actions over short term basis.
SIDEWAYS
If Japan becomes dependent on foreigners to finance the rollover of its debt, then either the Yen will fall or sinks or interest rates rise, and interest rates at just 3% would consume all of Japan's tax revenue. Clearly then the BoJ is going to monetise some of the debt. Especially since they are now targeting 1% inflation.
The yen will likely enjoy the safe haven status in the near future.
Risk Disclosure
This forecast has just an informative meaning and cannot be treated as the guide to action, signal, recommendation or an offer to carry out certain trading operation. The experts of this poll expresses personal opinions and will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the actions of the reader.We always aim for maximum accuracy, and FXstreet.com cannot be held responsible for inaccurate information or typos.
Money continues to flow back into Japan as a haven from global problems, headed by Europe. However we cannot separate out the relative benefits of being in USDs or JPY and hence call it flat out to 3 months.