http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-11-16.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 89.00..88.00..87.00..85.00. Resistance 90.60..91.34..92.33..93.00 Subtle signs in a series of currencies that the trend to generalised US dollar weakness is about to step up a gear. Which currency will lead is unclear, though the Brazilian real and Australian dollar have so far, +33% this year. For dollar/yen we continue to favour a series of cautious downside tests of key support between 87.00 and 1995’s 85.00 (below which it spiked to a low 79.75 over a threeMon, 16 Nov 2009 10:55:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-11-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-11-09.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 89.00..88.80..88.00..87.00. Resistance 91.34..92.33..92.55..93.00 Question: if investors are piling into ‘risky’ assets, a new version of the ‘carry trade’, then why aren’t they selling the Yen? Refugees from zero interest rate policies are understandable, but the pieces do not fit the puzzle properly. Last week’s ‘doji’ candle denotes instability at current levels, while all other Technical elements suggest the dominant trend is still very much to lower pricesMon, 09 Nov 2009 12:05:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-11-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-10-20.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 90.20..89.50..88.80..88.00. Resistance 91.33..91.75..92.55..93.00 Rallying from 88.00 towards the 9-week moving average and first Fibonacci resistance, taking a few Yen crosses to new highs for this year (AUD/JPY, NOK/JPY and NZD/JPY). We still feel this latest bounce will probably be capped around 91.50, and while below 92.55 we continue to favour a series of cautious downside tests of key support between 87.00 and 1995’s 85.00 (below which it spiked to a lowTue, 20 Oct 2009 06:06:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-10-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-10-12.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 89.30..88.50..88.00..87.00. Resistance 90.50..91.65..92.55..93.00 Taking fright at 88.00, ahead of January’s low at 87.10, a level that held miraculously some might say. This latest bounce will probably be capped around 91.50 and while below 92.55 we continue to favour a series of cautious downside tests of key support between 87.00 and 1995’s 85.00 (below which it spiked to a low 79.75 over a three month period). This in the context of generalised US dollarMon, 12 Oct 2009 11:01:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-10-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-09-28.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 88.60..88.00..87.00..86.65. Resistance 89.75..90.00..91.35..92.55 One of the lowest weekly closes this year sent the dollar tumbling against the Yen in Asia this morning. This month we expect a test of the 87.00 area, a level that held miraculously in December and again in January. The bounce from today’s low at 88.23 is impressive, but unlikely to stem the flow for more than a week (and maybe not even for the rest of the day). Over the coming month we continue toMon, 28 Sep 2009 12:48:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-09-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-09-21.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 91.00..90.12..88.00..87.10. Resistance 92.30..93.00..93.55..94.65 Bouncing from 78.6% Fibonacci retracement support, quickly correcting the oversold situation. Hopefully the rally will run out of steam here, first resistance around 92.00. However, holiday-thin conditions this week mean we cannot rule out a fairly large ‘extension’ higher. Worryingly, at-the-money implied volatility has not increased, holding around the average since April at 14.00%, this despiteMon, 21 Sep 2009 12:48:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-09-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-09-14.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 90.00..89.70..88.00..87.10. Resistance 91.00..92.50..93.55..94.65 Almost the lowest weekly close of 2009, and well below the mid-point of the very broad sideways band that has held all year, suggests a series of repeated downside tests for the rest of this month and maybe the rest of this year. A baptism by fire for the new DJP government that has had to wait 50 years to be elected into power. Verbal intervention has started already, the MOF’s Tango saying todayMon, 14 Sep 2009 12:10:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-09-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-09-08.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 92.00..91.70..90.70..89.70. Resistance 93.55..95.10..96.00..97.79 Price action in August appears to have formed a new interim high at 97.79, with a decent reversal candle (shooting star?) on the monthly chart. Last week’s bounce ahead of July’s low at 91.73 suggests we shall hold above this increasingly important chart area (down to 91.50) for another week or two. Rallies towards 96.00 are seen as selling opportunities for another downside test, hopefully soonerTue, 08 Sep 2009 09:08:58 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-09-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-08-10.htmlUSD/JPY  Chart Levels:  Support 96.60..95.60..94.00..93.55. Resistance 97.80..99.00..99.80..100.00 Not going according to plan as the Yen bursts higher on buy stops in thin market conditions, keeping to the upper half of this year’s broad trading band. Hopefully the good-sized flat-topped weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ (99.00) and retracement resistance at 97.80 will exert downward pressure and will eventually grind prices lower, here and in a series of Yen crosses. We shall allow forMon, 10 Aug 2009 10:34:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-08-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-08-03.htmlUSD/JPY  Chart Levels:  Support 94.00..93.00..92.35..91.73 Resistance 95.88..96.25..97.00..99.00 Little to add as prices continue to thrash around the ‘neckline’ of a potential ‘head-and-shoulders’ interim top where the ‘head’ marks the upper edge of this year’s broad trading band. Last week’s ‘doji’ candle denotes indecision and a market looking for direction. Hopefully the good-sized flat-topped weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ will grind prices lower for another weekly close below theMon, 03 Aug 2009 10:19:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-08-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-07-27.htmlUSD/JPY  Chart Levels:  Support 94.00..93.00..92.35..91.73. Resistance 95.35..96.25..97.00..99.00 Prices are still thrashing around the ‘neckline’ of a potential ‘head-and-shoulders’ interim top where the ‘head’ marks the upper edge of this year’s broad trading band. A good-sized flat-topped weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ should grind prices lower again to manage a second weekly close below the pivotal 94.00 area (also Fibonacci retracement support). This is the rough mid-point of thisMon, 27 Jul 2009 10:32:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-07-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-07-20.htmlUSD/JPY  Chart Levels:  Support 93.55..93.00..92.35..91.73. Resistance 94.80..95.35..96.25..97.00 Prices are thrashing around the ‘neckline’ of a potential ‘head-and-shoulders’ interim top where the ‘head’ marks the upper edge of this year’s broad trading band. A good-sized flat-topped Ichimoku ‘cloud’ should grind prices lower again to manage a second weekly close below the pivotal 94.00 area (also Fibonacci retracement support). This is the rough mid-point of this year’s broadMon, 20 Jul 2009 10:20:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-07-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-07-06.htmlUSD/JPY  Chart Levels:  Support 95.00..94.00..93.55..92.75.  Resistance 96.58..97.00..98.58..98.88 The very long term trend to lower prices is intact, the corrective bounce of Q1 2009 followed by a potential ‘head-and-shoulders’ interim top in Q2. The weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ has limited recent ranges on the upside and should now set up a test of the ‘neckline’ in the increasingly pivotal 94.00 area (also Fibonacci retracement support). This also represents the rough mid-point ofMon, 06 Jul 2009 10:02:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-07-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-06-30.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 95.00..94.00..93.55..92.75. Resistance 96.58..97.25..98.58..98.90 Somewhat to our surprise the potential ‘head-and-shoulders’ in which this pair has been trading since March is still valid. During June the top of the weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ limited the upside neatly and should now set up a test of the ‘neckline’ in the increasingly pivotal 94.00 area. This also represents the rough mid-point of trading this year where prices have held pretty much between 87.00 andTue, 30 Jun 2009 05:34:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-06-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-06-15.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 97.00..95.50..94.30..93.55. Resistance 99.00..99.80..100.75..101.45 Despite trading both up and down, admittedly in a very narrow trading range, implied volatility hasnot picked up as much as we had hoped. Prices have held roughly between 94.00 and 100.00 for the last three months and we can probably ‘look forward’ to more of the same at least until month-end. Picking intermediate tops and bottoms will not get any easier as the risk of ‘extensions’ increases theMon, 15 Jun 2009 10:24:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-06-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-06-08.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 96.60..95.50..94.40..93.55. Resistance 99.00..99.80..100.75..101.45 Last week’s strong rally from support at the 26-week moving average (which held for four consecutive weeks) has forced us to adjust our view. It signals a failed downside push and heralds yet more sideways trading in the broad band that has held since March (roughly between 94.00 and 100.50). Because the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ has become relatively narrow, and more importantly because it is now movingMon, 08 Jun 2009 14:38:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-06-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-05-11.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 97.50..96.50..95.65..93.55. Resistance 99.00..99.80..100.75..101.45 Retreating again from March’s high at 99.69 in what is a potential, irregular, oversized ‘head-and-shoulders’ top. Prices should now turn their focus to cautious downside probing, starting with this morning’s test of the top of the daily Ichimoku ‘cloud’. In what is expected to be generalised US dollar selling, this month the Yen may well outperform other major currencies dragging Yen crossesMon, 11 May 2009 10:39:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-05-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-04-27.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 96.45..95.45..94.00..93.55. Resistance 97.50..98.00..99.00..99.69 Today’s brief dip below 96.50, and last week’s close below 97.00, has forced us to adjust our view and we now see April’s high at 101.45 as an interim top. It is an ‘extension’ above March’s high at 99.69 (and the 50% retracement area) which was stopped by the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and the Fibonacci 61% level. Now prices should turn their focus to cautious downside probing, in what is expected to beMon, 27 Apr 2009 10:20:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-04-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-04-20.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 98.00..97.00..96.55..95.65. Resistance 99.77..100.75..100.55..101.45 Because we predict a series of broadly sideways moves for the bulk of this year, with many interim highs and lows along the way, predicting where these lie will be a difficult problem which we will have to face again and again. This is the case with April’s high at 101.45, just as it was with March’s one at 99.69. At the moment we see the pull-back from the recent high as corrective, retracingMon, 20 Apr 2009 14:07:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-04-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-03-16.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 97.00..96.55..95.65..94.45. Resistance 98.75..99.69..100.00..100.55. It might just be possible that we have formed an interim high at 99.69, but until we start holding consistently below the 97.00 area this has yet to be confirmed. Therefore the outlook for this week and possibly for the rest of this month is unclear. As we predict a series of broadly sideways moves for the bulk of this year, it will be the sort of problem we will have to face again and again,Mon, 16 Mar 2009 11:09:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-03-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-03-09.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 97.30..96.55..95.25..94.00. Resistance 98.75..99.69..100.00..100.55 The outlook for dollar/Yen has just become an awful lot harder although many economists are glibly talking as though a rally through the psychological 100.00 mark to 110.00 was a done deal. Having retraced 50% of the previous decline, and formed a ‘doji’ candle on the weekly chart, and with the US dollar overbought, we shall allow for another week of instability probably between 96.00 and 99.00.Mon, 09 Mar 2009 12:07:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-03-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-02-24.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 93.75..92.75..92.00..91.00. Resistance 95.00..95.65..97.55..99.50 No doubt to the surprise of many, dollar/Yen has squeezed up through the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and just now through January’s high at 94.65. This might turn out to be an ‘extension’ and later it will consolidate below here for a week or two. However, depending on how much momentum is generated by the other Yen crosses we shall have to allow for a sustained burst through here some time in March. Note thatTue, 24 Feb 2009 05:54:50 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-02-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-02-16.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 89.70..88.50..88.00..87.10. Resistance 92.50..93.10..94.65..95.65 Consensus opinion for a stronger Yen, coupled with a North American holiday today, might mean that we manage a squeeze above trendline resistance in thin markets later on. This may rattle some, setting off buy stops, and allowing prices to extend their rally. We continue to allow for a lot of messy broadly sideways work, with an initial squeeze towards 94.00 later this month. Note that a briefMon, 16 Feb 2009 10:27:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-02-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-02-09.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 90.87..90.00..89.00..88.50. Resistance 92.00..92.50..93.10..94.65 Support around 88.50 has given the dollar a boost, turning momentum bullish and pushing prices above the 26-day moving average at 90.87. If we can hold above here today upside pressure should increase further for a squeeze up towards 94.00 around month-end. Note that a brief squeeze to 98.00 some time in H1 2009 cannot be ruled out. While this takes place the tendency will be for the Yen to looseMon, 09 Feb 2009 10:25:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-02-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-02-03.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 88.00..87.10..86.10..85.00. Resistance 90.79..91.33..92.00..94.65 Hovering unsteadily between 88.00 and 91.00, above a potential ‘double bottom’ at 87.10, and below a fairly thick Ichimoku ‘cloud’. During February we shall continue to allow for another cautious downside probe towards 85.00. Nervous authorities will probably be tempted to talk the Yen weaker as we approach this point. They might actually intervene as the Yen is very strong against a raft of otherTue, 03 Feb 2009 05:45:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-02-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-01-27.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 88.00..87.10..86.10..85.00. Resistance 90.00..91.33..92.00..94.65 A potential ‘double bottom’ at 87.10, complete with a massive ‘hammer’ on the 21st, yet momentum remains decidedly bearish. Therefore we shall during February allow for another cautious downside probe towards 85.00. Nervous authorities will probably be tempted to talk the Yen weaker as we approach this point. They might actually intervene as the Yen is very strong against a raft of other currencies.Tue, 27 Jan 2009 05:55:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-01-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-01-12.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 90.00..89.00..88.00..85.00. Resistance 91.00..92.00..93.00..94.65 The rally in the first three days of this year is seen as a corrective bounce which ended with a ‘spike high’/reversal-type weekly candle. The US dollar is no longer oversold and medium term momentum is still bearish. During Q1 2009 we expect further concerted downside testing, grinding lower slowly. Nervous authorities tempted to talk the Yen weaker, especially as we approach the fairly pivotalMon, 12 Jan 2009 11:43:35 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2009-01-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-12-15.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 90.00..89.00..88.10..85.00. Resistance 92.00..93.00..94.00..96.00 Sliding dramatically to the lowest price since 1995 at 88.10. Subsequent price action, with gaps and a tremendous bounce, hint at potential intervention (or at least the very real worry that they might step in). Therefore we feel that we shall hold above 89.00 until year-end. Note that the all-time low was 79.70 in April 1995 but for most of that month and the next two JPY held above 85.00 much ofMon, 15 Dec 2008 11:07:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-12-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-12-01.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 93.93..93.53..92.48..91.88. Resistance 96.00..97.44..98.70..99.50 Testing the lower edge of the ‘triangle’ though above November’s low at 93.53. Hopefully we will get a successful break this week and we continue to feel there is another downside move due by the end of this year as the ‘carry trade’ unwinds further and the credit crunch affects more areas of business. As for rallies, these will now hopefully be capped by the large Ichimoku ‘cloud’. These are seenMon, 01 Dec 2008 11:35:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-12-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-11-24.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 94.48..93.53..92.48..91.88. Resistance 97.00..98.50..99.50..100.55 Little to add as we continue in a holding pattern, ‘triangle’ consolidation below retracement resistance. We continue to feel there is another downside move due by the end of this year as the ‘carry trade’ unwinds further and the credit crunch affects more areas of business. As for rallies, these now will hopefully be capped between 98.00 and 100.00, although a brief but dramatic squeeze to 103.00Mon, 24 Nov 2008 12:03:50 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-11-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-11-17.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 95.87..94.48..92.48..91.88. Resistance 98.45..99.79..100.56..101.55 Still in a holding pattern, ‘triangle’ consolidation below retracement resistance. We continue to feel there is another downside move due by the end of this year as the ‘carry trade’ unwinds further and the credit crunch affects more areas of business and daily life. As for rallies, these ought to be capped between 99.00 and 101.00, although a brief but dramatic squeeze to 103.00 cannot be ruledMon, 17 Nov 2008 11:14:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-11-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-11-11.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 97.90..96.75..95.95..94.25. Resistance 99.79..100.56..101.55..102.15 Little to add as we continue in correction and consolidation mode, here and in all variants of the ‘carry trade’. This may continue for another week and possibly for most of November. However, we warn against complacency because we feel there is another downside move due by the end of this year. As for rallies, these ought to be capped between 102.00 and 103.00 and are seen as good sellingTue, 11 Nov 2008 05:59:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-11-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-11-03.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 97.90..95.95..94.25..92.50. Resistance 99.79..101.55..102.15..103.00 Many breathing a sigh of relief as markets move into correction and consolidation mode, here and in all variants of the ‘carry trade’. This should continue this week, maybe for most of November. However, we warn against complacency because we feel there is another downside move due by the end of this year. As for rallies, these ought to be capped between 102.00 and 103.00 and are seen as goodMon, 03 Nov 2008 11:16:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-11-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-10-28.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 91.88..90.87..89.20..87.75. Resistance 95.00..97.00..101.00..103.00 The biggest weekly and monthly move in this currency pair since October 1998, again caused by de-leveraging; record one-month volatility at 38.90%. Surprisingly little said by Japanese authorities, in contrast to aggressive intervention in 2000/2001. Bearish momentum is stronger than anything since July 2002 as we approach the strongest ever level for the Yen against the dollar set in April 1995Tue, 28 Oct 2008 06:07:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-10-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-10-21.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 100.60..99.25..98.60..95.77. Resistance 102.50..103.30..104.50..105.00 Price action last week is seen as consolidation at some of the lowest levels this year, below the fairly pivotal 102.50 area, as we get to grips with the rather scary concept of the US dollar being worth less than 100 Yen. This process should continue this week, maybe until the end of this month, prior to a re-test of March’s low at 95.77. Therefore rallies to 103.00/104.50 are seen as sellingTue, 21 Oct 2008 06:06:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-10-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-10-06.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 102.50..101.45..100.00..98.00. Resistance 104.00..105.15..106.00..107.15 The Yen, and Japan plc generally, are seen as a safe-haven in the gathering storm. Counterparty risk is key as we become ever more reluctant to do any type of business with anybody. Wider bid-offer spreads and implied volatility close to record highs make doing business more expensive and difficult. The disjointed and slow response by the authorities is adding to woes. The implosion ofMon, 06 Oct 2008 12:29:12 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-10-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-09-29.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 105.50..105.00..104.50..103.50. Resistance 106.50..107.00..107.75..108.60 The finance industry is the eye of the storm, making front page news as one after another institutions fail or are rumoured to be failing. This morning we have not had even the tiniest relief rally as US politicians plan a $700B rescue package. Instead sellers are out in force, taking stock indices down to recent lows, and interbank money is non-existent as Q3 ends. Bid/offer spreads in allMon, 29 Sep 2008 10:48:12 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-09-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-09-08.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 108.00..107.20..106.40..105.50. Resistance 109.19..110.67..111.00..111.80 Once again the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ has done a splendid job in limiting sudden collapses. Because it is getting fatter over the coming month, and because the US dollar is fractionally oversold, we feel it should consolidate above 107.00 for another week or two. However, if at-the-money implied volatility remains high, we could find that ranges are riddled with ‘spikes’ and ‘extensions’ making itMon, 08 Sep 2008 13:32:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-09-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-09-02.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 107.20..106.40..105.75..105.00. Resistance 109.90..110.67..111.00..111.80 August’s candle is an ‘evening/shooting star’ with the move above 110.00, an important long term pivotal area, being an ‘extension’. Over the next month or three we expect the Yen to gain against the US dollar, and for the Yen to gain against most if not all major currencies. Whether this is because of unwinding of the carry trade, or whether it is a flight to safety, we feel that the SwissTue, 02 Sep 2008 08:22:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-09-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-08-18.htmlUSD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 109.00..108.35..108.00..107.00. Resistance 110.50..110.67..111.00..111.80 A ‘hanging man’ on the weekly chart, half-way between last June’s high and the low of March this year, just under the weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’. This is the first sign of stalling at this important long term pivotal area, and we shall be watching for more signs of topping until month-end. Here, and in a series of other major currencies against the USD, we shall be watching weekly and monthlyMon, 18 Aug 2008 11:06:37 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/weekly-technical-commentary/2008-08-18.html