Dollar to move lower

The Dollar continued higher in a very slow manner and has not yet reached the upwards target from the previous analysis.

We provide a main and alternate hourly count today.

Hourly Count: Main

- Invalidation Point: 79.98
- Confirmation Point: 79.48
- Downside Target: 79.40

Hourly Count: Alternate

- Invalidation Point: 79.48
- Confirmation Point: 79.98
- Upside Target: 80.08

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the USD Index for 03 October 2012. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count

Within wave 3 blue waves i and ii pink are seen as complete. Wave iii pink is expected to be subdividing into green degree with waves (i) and (ii) green complete. Within wave (iii) green we expect waves i and ii orange are complete.

Upwards movement is now expected within a five wave impulse for wave iii orange that has to show an increase in upwards momentum.

Movement below 78.10 would invalidate this wave count as wave ii orange may not move beyond the start of wave i orange.

The hourly counts see the slow sideways and upwards movement as a leading diagonal for wave (1) aqua within wave 1 purple of wave iii orange.

This main hourly count sees the Dollar within a zigzag for wave (2) aqua with waves A and B red complete.

A ratio within wave B red of wave (2) aqua is: wave c plum is .03 longer than 1.618 the length of wave a plum.

Downwards movement is now expected within wave C red to complete wave (2) aqua.

Movement below 79.48 would confirm this wave count as the alternate hourly would then be invalidated.

At 79.40 wave C red would reach equality with wave A red.

Short term invalidation is with movement above 79.98 as no second wave correction within wave C red may move beyond the start of the first wave.

Movement below 78.60 would invalidate this wave count as wave (2) aqua may not move beyond the start of wave (1) aqua.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

This alternate expects wave (2) aqua is a flat with wave A red complete.

Upwards movement is expected within wave B red before downwards movement for wave C red to complete wave (2) aqua.

Confirmation for this wave count is with movement above 79.98 as the main hourly would then be invalidated.

The minimum upwards target for wave B red is 80.08 as the B wave within a flat correction has to retrace at least 90% the length of the A wave.

Short term invalidation is with movement below 79.48 as wave b plum may not move beyond the start of wave a plum.

There is no invalidation to the upside as wave B red may move beyond the start of wave A red within a flat correction.