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S&P and NASDAQ Post Weekly Reversal Tops

Sat, Nov 21 2009, 00:02 GMT
by James Hyerczyk

ForexHound.com

Investors continued to dump higher risk assets today triggering weekly closing price reversal tops in the December E-mini S&P 500 and the December E-mini NASDAQ.  A follow-through break to the downside in both of these markets next week will confirm the reversal top and lead to the start of a 2 to 3 week break. 

The trend may turn down on the daily chart, but the weekly charts still indicate that the main uptrend is still intact.  A break though 1026.00 will turn the main trend down on the S&P weekly chart.  The current pattern suggests that a break to 1069.00 is likely this week.  A trade through 1650.25 will turn the NASDAQ contract lower on the weekly chart.  The current set up points toward a test of 1732.00.

Despite the lower equity markets, Treasury Bonds couldn’t hold on to earlier gains and fell on profit-taking.  Bernanke gave the green light for Treasury traders to continue to get long as he cited a weak economic picture as the main reason for the Fed to keep pressure on interest rates.  Money leaving the equity markets and seeking safety also gave December T-Bonds and T-Notes support.

After reaching a 15 month low early in the week, the U.S. Dollar closed higher for the week against a trade-weighted basket of currencies.  Technically, this closing price reversal, once confirmed, often leads to a 2 to 3 week retracement.  The daily chart suggests that a move through 77.50 is necessary to turn the main trend to up.

The low for the week for the Dollar was posted shortly after Fed Chairman Bernanke mentioned his concern for the Dollar in a speech.  Although he never said the Dollar was too weak, he did say that the Fed would monitor its value to make sure that it did not interfere with its mandate to shore up employment and maintain price stability. 

At first this statement seemed like the similar lip-service the Treasury usually produces when asked about the Dollar. Traders definitely reacted this way when they sent the Dollar lower and stocks higher.  The next day, however, European Central Bank President Trichet stated he agreed with Bernanke then proceeded to talk up the Dollar.  In my opinion, it was the statement by Trichet which had the most impact on the Dollar as it put an end to the rally in the Euro.

Attempts were made this week to drive December Gold lower, but aggressive longs would not let this happen.  Gold surged higher from the get-go this week to post a new all-time high.  The strengthening Dollar had some impact on the gold market on Thursday when it triggered a break from $1151 to $1130.  Buyers quickly stepped in on the lows to drive the market higher, setting up a finish slightly below the high for the week.  With a bullish pattern developing in the Dollar Index, gold may have a hard time rallying next week.  Those considering shorting gold should be careful however until the market posts a clear and decisive topping signal. 

January Crude Oil made its fourth consecutive lower high on the weekly chart.  The close near the low for the week suggests that an acceleration to the downside is imminent.  Also glaring is the divergence crude oil has had with the Dollar, gold and equity markets.  The weekly chart suggests that a break though 76.27 will trigger this sell-off.  Speculators are starting to realize that demand will continue to drop as long as the economy remains week.

Published on  Sat, Nov 21 2009, 00:02 GMT