EUR/USD

Pausing after sharp rise.

  • EUR/USD has moved sideways after breaking the strong resistance at 1.3004. The current mild correction suggests a continued weak selling pressure. Short-term support is at 1.3022. The next strong horizontal resistance is at 1.3284 (see also down trendline).

  • The lack of base formation or sell-off suggests that the current strength in EUR is a rebound within an underlying downtrend. Given the resistances area between 1.3150 and 1.3491 (38.2% and 50% retracements of the decline from May 2011 to July 2012), we are waiting for signs of weakness to initiate a short EUR position.

Await fresh signal.


GBP/USD

Grinding higher towards the strong resistance at 1.6302.

  • GBP/USD continues to grind higher. A test of the strong horizontal resistance at 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high) is likely. Hourly support is at 1.6185.

  • GBP/USD is likely moving in a long-term horizontal range. Still, the resistances given by 1.6302 and by the down trendline (linking the August 2009 top with the April 2011 top), coupled with short-term overbought conditions, suggest a short-term limited upside potential.

Long 1 at 1.5810, Obj: 1.6302, Stop: 1.6150 (Entered: 2012-08-24).


USD/JPY

Moving higher towards resistance at 79.03.

  • USD/JPY's upside reversal after breaking the key support at 77.66 suggests a bear trap. Further short-term strength is favoured. Monitor the resistance at 79.03. Hourly support at 78.16.

  • USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process and is oversold both on a short-term and medium-term time frame. The weekly reversal near the support at 77.66 suggests a short-term exhaustion of the selling pressure. Medium-term resistance is at 80.62.

Buy limit 3 at 77.96, Objs: 79.03/79.66/80.62, Stop: 76.89.


USD/CHF

Pause within short-term downtrend.

  • USD/CHF has moved sideways yesterday. A break above the hourly resistance at 0.9302 would favour a bounce. Still, as long as the resistance at 0.9420 (13/09/2012) holds, the short-term technical configuration is negative.

  • The break of the support at 0.9423 opens the way for a move towards the next horizontal support at 0.9043. It also strengthens the resistance area between 0.9951 (61.8% retracement of the decline from June 2010 to August 2011) and 1.0067 (01/12/2010 high).

Our strategy has been stopped.


USD/CAD

Short-term bounce underway.

  • USD/CAD has broken its support at 0.9725. Still, the intraday bullish reversal on 14 September suggests a short-term exhaustion of the selling pressure. Short-term resistance is at 0.9774 (13/09/2012 high). Strong resistance is at 0.9843 (21/08/2012 low).

  • Succession of lower highs since March 2009. The break of the support at 0.9725 opens the way for a medium-term move towards the strong support at 0.9407.

Await fresh signal.


AUD/USD

Weakening after successful test of the strong resistance at 1.0613.

  • AUD/USD is weakening after failing to break its resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high, see also down trendline). The short-term support at 1.0427 (12/09/2012 low) is now challenged.

  • The proximity of the down trendline favours a significant phase of weakness. Still, should a break to the upside out of the symmetrical triangle occur, it would force us to review our strategy.

Short 3 at 1.0430, Objs: 1.0230/0.9980/0.9820, Stop: 1.0630 (Entered: 2012-09-11).


GBP/JPY

Bullish breakout at 127.11.

  • GBP/JPY has broken the resistance at 127.11. The next resistance is given by the down trendline. Short-term support is at 126.84 (17/09/2012 low).

  • GBP/JPY is moving within a long-term declining channel since April 2010. Still, the recent higher lows above the key support at 116.84 favour a new test of the long-term down trendline (near 130.00).

Await fresh signal.


EUR/JPY

Grinding higher.

  • EUR/JPY has moved higher yesterday. The next resistance is given by 104.63 (16/04/2012 low, see also down trendline). Hourly support is at 102.52.

  • We remain focused on the long-term downtrend, which favours a return to the 94.00 region. We would like to initiate a short position when the current uptrend will show significant signs of weakness.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/GBP

Weakening close to strong resistance area.

  • EUR/GBP is weakening close to its strong resistance area between 0.8095 (29/06/2012 high) and 0.8169 (see also down trendline). Monitor the short-term support at 0.8037 (14/09/2012 low).

  • We still view the current strength as a countertrend move within a long-term downtrend. We are therefore waiting for signs of exhaustion in the current uptrend, especially near the aforementioned resistance area.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/CHF

Short-term weakness.

  • EUR/CHF has moved higher than its resistance at 1.2147, increasing the likelihood of further strength. The next resistance is at 1.2243.

  • The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF which is expected to hold on the medium-term.

  • In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.

Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.9998 (Entered: 2012-09-18).


GOLD

Weakening close to strong resistance area.

  • Gold has moved lower yesterday, breaking its hourly support at 1761. Next support is at 1721. Strong resistance area between 1791 (29/02/2012) and 1803.

  • Gold is in a secular uptrend with a strong support at 1523. Still, given the proximity of the aforementioned resistances and the current overextended rise, a phase of weakness is likely.

Await fresh signal.


SILVER

Weakening within steep uptrend.

  • Silver has moved lower yesterday, breaking its hourly support at 34.33 (14/09/2012 low). Next support is at 35.51.

  • Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its long-term key support. The break of the longterm down trendline favours a long-term sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance at 37.48.

Await fresh signal.