http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-11-17.htmlComment: At last the penny seems to be dropping for some investors: as yields on short-dated Treasuries approach zero, one is forced out along the curve. With 12-month TBills yielding 0.28%, 2-year TNotes 0.77%, and the Fed Funds target likely to stay where it is for a very long time, suddenly 10-year TNotes at 3.35% look attractive (to bankers and the Chinese if no one else). Technically the rising Ichimoku ‘cloud’ has allowed a re-test of contract high, just ahead of a cluster of pivotalTue, 17 Nov 2009 09:13:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-11-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-11-10.htmlComment: The rising Ichimoku ‘cloud’ has pushed this contract slightly higher but progress is alarmingly slow. A daily close above 119.00, and ten-year benchmark yields through the pivotal level at 3.28% should speed things up. We expect this to give way this month so that this futures contract rallies to a new contract high prior to delivery. Bullish pressure should increase if prices now hold above 118.00. Strategy: Strategy remains unchanged: buy at 118.20/118.10; stop below 116.16. Add toTue, 10 Nov 2009 08:41:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-11-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-11-03.htmlComment: October’s correction lower was eventually stemmed by Fibonacci support and the rising Ichimoku ‘cloud’. This has put ten-year benchmark yields within a whisker of tackling the pivotal level at 3.28% (though five-year will probably lead on a break below 2.15%). We expect this to give way this month so that this futures contract rallies to a new contract high prior to delivery. Bullish pressure should increase if prices now hold above 118.00. Strategy: Buy at 118.20/118.10; stop belowTue, 03 Nov 2009 08:56:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-11-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-10-27.htmlComment: Correction over the last three weeks has taken futures prices below what we had allowed for and turned moving averages bearish. Nevertheless we still see this move as countertrend and shall therefore look for signs of forming an interim base this week, hopefully the rising Ichimoku ‘cloud’ nudging prices up through to delivery. The contract is oversold but then momentum is bearish. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 117.04; stop below 116.16. Add to longs on a daily close above 118.08Tue, 27 Oct 2009 09:39:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-10-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-10-20.htmlComment: Indecision again this month as benchmark ten-year yields hover between 3.00% and 3.50% (and thirty-year between 4.00% and 4.50%). The corrective decline in this futures contract extended just beyond what we had allowed for despite zero momentum. However, the Lagging Span appears to have found some support from September’s candlesticks helping the contract to base close to short term Fibonacci 61% retracement support. The rising Ichimoku ‘cloud’ should eventually help nudge prices upTue, 20 Oct 2009 08:26:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-10-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-10-13.htmlComment: Yields on long-dated US Treasuries backed up by more than many others, ten-year benchmark ones struggling with the 3.00% level (2003’s low) while thirty-year toys with the psychological 4.00% (low 2003 and again in 2005). Price action in this futures contract has been very neat and looks like a classic version of stepping higher followed by consolidation. Trendline support and the 26-day moving average might help it up today, and the Lagging Span ought to get some support fromTue, 13 Oct 2009 07:45:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-10-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-10-06.htmlComment: Last week’s close above fairly pivotal resistance around 118.16 has seen bullish momentum increase slightly, as expected, though the contract is currently a little overbought. Allow for a little more consolidation today with dips to 119.00 (and probably no lower than 118.16) seen as good buying opportunities for the next leg of the rally which should take the contract up to the 121.24 area. Strategy: Buy at 119.08/119.00; stop below 118.06. Add to longs on a daily close above 120.00Tue, 06 Oct 2009 08:25:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-10-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-09-29.htmlComment: The US Treasury curve has flattened slightly, twos/tens at 230 narrowest since early May, as long-dated yields drop a little faster than short-dates which are struggling as they approach zero (one-month TBill yielding just one basis point!) No wonder US savers have withdrawn $350B from money market funds so far this year. Charts suggest there is a chance that the TNote’s spread over JGB’s and Bunds might narrow and invert imminently. This futures contract is set to re-testTue, 29 Sep 2009 07:55:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-09-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-09-22.htmlComment: Interesting that open interest is about one third of 2007’s peak despite record new issuing. Hard to get enthusiastic as prices move randomly around benchmark yields of 3.50% for a fifth consecutive month. Little point gearing up while futures continue to struggle below 118.16. Expect prices to stabilise around current levels and then rally late this month and in October for an eventual re-test of contract high. Strategy: Buy at 116.24; stop well below 116.00. Add to longs on a dailyTue, 22 Sep 2009 08:17:32 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-09-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-09-15.htmlComment: Still struggling at the 118.00 area and likely to continue to do so until we get a daily close above 118.16. It is not in the least bit overbought and bullish momentum is stronger than many might imagine. Expect prices to stabilise around current levels and then rally later this month for an eventual re-test of contract high. Strategy: Buy at 117.16; stop well below 116.16. Add to longs on a daily close above 118.16 for 119.16/120.00 short term and 123.00 further out.Tue, 15 Sep 2009 10:01:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-09-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-09-08.htmlComment: Over the last four weeks many have rushed into two-year TNotes despite trading close to record low yields. This has seen longer dates’ yields edge lower, and this futures contract become overbought at 118.00. The pullback of the last week has corrected this though bullish momentum has eased very considerably. Expect prices to stabilise around current levels and then rally later this month for an eventual re-test of contract high. Strategy: Buy at 117.03, adding to 116.08; stop belowTue, 08 Sep 2009 08:51:22 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-09-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-09-01.htmlComment: Repeated rejection from the 4.00% area over the last four months suggests a test of the psychological 3.00% level next. A break below trendline support on the yield chart should lead to a sudden drop, hopefully this month. Though overbought, momentum for the futures contract is decidedly bullish which should allow it to break above July’s high at 117.19 where a round of short-covering is likely. Strategy: Buy at 117.08; stop below 115.10. Add to longs on a daily close above 117.16 forTue, 01 Sep 2009 11:29:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-09-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-08-11.htmlComment: Thirty-year Treasuries doing better than other maturities, here and in Europe too, as prices thrash around looking for direction for a third month in a row. Sharp intra-day price moves caused the latest dip below 115.00 and continue to suggest we are preparing to break out of the 114.00-119.00 big range. Trendline resistance remains a serious obstacle to any rally, but note that Ichimoku ‘cloud’ narrows considerably as of today. Expect another attempt at forming an interim base thisTue, 11 Aug 2009 08:00:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-08-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-08-04.htmlComment: Like the US dollar in some FX pairs, TNote futures have been thrashing around rather unhappily for ten weeks. Intra-day price moves have, if anything, become sharper of late suggesting it is preparing to break out of this range. TBond futures have held up better recently a the US curve flattens (admittedly from extremely steep level) suddenly. We feel this has a lot further to go though moves are likely to lag those of the Bund. This contract dropped once again from trendlineTue, 04 Aug 2009 09:15:08 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-08-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-07-28.htmlComment: Little to add as this contract continues to stumble around under trendline resistance and a very wide Ichimoku ‘cloud’. No sign of bullish momentum and open interest is one third of 2007’s peak – obviously little hedging of vast new issuance and little speculative appetite. Expect another attempt at forming an interim base this week followed by a slow squeeze back up to 119.00 and probably 121.00 in thin summer conditions. Strategy: Attempt longs at 115.16; stop below 114.16. Add toTue, 28 Jul 2009 07:57:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-07-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-07-21.htmlComment: Five-year TNote futures doing best again though they are expected to lag German counterparts. This ten-year contract formed a ‘bullish engulfing’ candle yesterday with a ‘spike low’ against retracement support, suggesting a new interim low is in place. On a break above the lower edge of a very wide Ichimoku ‘cloud’ bullish momentum should increase allowing prices to rally quickly back up to 119.00. Allow for a little hesitation again at this point prior to a second leg higher toTue, 21 Jul 2009 07:53:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-07-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-07-14.htmlComment: Five-year TNotes doing best as investors move out along the yield curve with a tendency to reduce exposure to riskier names. The ten-year contract has rallied faster than we had hoped because momentum is now decidedly bullish. This week we shall allow for some hesitation under our short term target at 119.00, benchmark yield of 3.25%, with dips unlikely to extend below the 116.00 area at worst. These are seen as buying opportunities for a break higher later this month. Strategy: BuyTue, 14 Jul 2009 08:59:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-07-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-07-07.htmlComment: Lagging behind British, German and Japanese Treasuries but generally moving to higher prices and lower yields. Momentum has yet to turn decidedly bullish, and might do on a sustained break above 117.08, and the contract is not overbought. We shall continue to allow for some nervous sharp swings in benchmark yields between 3.25% and 3.85% for much of this month, then another drop in yields so that the futures contract trades up to 118.16/119.00, then 122.00 and eventually 127.00.Tue, 07 Jul 2009 08:16:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-07-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-06-30.htmlComment: Five and ten-year US TNotes are leading the re-think, flattening the yield curve as expected. More importantly, June’s price action in benchmark yields can be seen as an ‘extension’ to the corrective bounce of this year which has ended with a dramatic ‘shooting star’ candle on the monthly chart. This underlines the case where yields of between 4.00% and 5.00% are the ‘norm’ of the last eight years and that what is needed now are lower yields. Therefore we shall expect a new lowerTue, 30 Jun 2009 08:00:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-06-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-06-23.htmlComment: US Treasuries are recovering from the drubbing of the last three months though five-year paper is struggling more than other maturities. We continue to expect a flatter yield-curve and that US dollar denominated paper will lag Bunds and Gilts. Benchmark ten-year yields balked and reversed from the psychological 4.00% area, which is also one standard deviation from the mean since 2001. These should continue to move lower this month and next, taking the futures contract back up toTue, 23 Jun 2009 09:08:37 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-06-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-06-16.htmlComment: Yield curves should continue to flatten from what are currently some of their steepest ever, with Bunds outperforming US Treasuries (marginally) while the Eurozone and the US slug it out as to which has the bigger banking problem. Meanwhile equity investors are belatedly reacting to high yields and expensive energy, indices toppling suddenly from this year’s highest levels. Joined-up thinking for a change so that fixed income futures rally from very oversold positions, the TNoteTue, 16 Jun 2009 08:17:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-06-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-06-09.htmlComment: Having lost the ability to set interest rates for the corporate and interbank markets, as well as long-dated Treasuries, the Fed now appears to have let short-dated TNotes slip from its grasp. The yield on these, having been trapped like a fish on a hook around 0.95% all year, burst to 1.45% in just two days. This has helped the US yield curve flatten suddenly, and the spread over Bunds increase; both these tendencies should continue at a smart pace this month so that US paper yieldsTue, 09 Jun 2009 07:54:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-06-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-06-02.htmlComment: The US yield curve is as steep as it was in 1992 and 2003, so that the expression ‘be careful what you wish for’ springs to mind. Futures have pulled back much more than expected, retracing 50% of the move that started in July 2007. The contract is very oversold and good volume last week suggests distress selling as well as switching months. We feel the whole move is overdone and continue to watch for an interim base to form. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 115.24; stop below 115.00.Tue, 02 Jun 2009 08:52:37 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-06-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-05-26.htmlComment: US benchmark ten-year TNotes yield 200 basis points over JGB’s, the widest this year and in turn the lowest the spread touched on 2008; we feel it ought to cap here. We also expect this year’s corrective bounce in yields to top against the 3.40% area (two standard deviations from the mean since 2001), the move above 3.30% some sort of ‘extension’. We continue to favour an eventual squeeze back up in the futures price to 125.00, maybe not by the end of June but some time in July.Tue, 26 May 2009 09:18:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-05-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-05-19.htmlComment: Trapped between a rock and a hard place as the contract pushes into the apex of this year’s ‘wedge’ formation (as are Five-year and TBond futures). This cannot go on for much longer and, wary of an initial ‘false break’, we expect the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ to provide support. We continue to favour a squeeze back up to 125.00 and then more slowly to contract high at 126.24. Strategy: Buy at 120.16; stop well below 120.00. Add to longs above 122.08 and again above 125.00 for 126.00/126.24.Tue, 19 May 2009 07:57:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-05-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-05-12.htmlComment: Despite Quantitative Easing the US yield curve is now almost as steep as it has ever been since the ultra-long term trend to lower bond yields started in 1981. Some might argue that this is caused by exceptionally low two-year TNote yields which are trading below 1.00% for the first time post-WWII; but then five-year at 2.00% is also terribly low. TNote futures are at their lowest this year, yields backing up by a little more than we had allowed for, a move which is seen as anTue, 12 May 2009 08:53:24 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-05-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-05-05.htmlComment: TNote prices are at their lowest this year, yet still well within normal retracement parameters. This has steepened the yield curve by more than we had allowed for though simultaneously narrowing the yield gap over German paper as expected. Price action this year is seen as a ‘flag’ and another rush higher ought to be imminent. We continue to favour a squeeze back up to 125.00 and then more slowly to contract high at 126.24. Strategy: Buy at 120.24; stop below 120.00. Add to longs onTue, 05 May 2009 07:57:44 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-05-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-04-28.htmlComment: Is it any wonder that volumes are roughly half the mean of the last two years as we trade for a fifth consecutive month in the same range. One would have thought that investors had had enough time to get used to benchmark ten-year yields at their lowest levels since WWII. Price action this year is seen as a ‘pennant’ and another rush higher ought to be imminent. This week five-year is leading and momentum has turned bullish for this futures contract. We continue to favour a squeezeTue, 28 Apr 2009 07:40:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-04-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-04-21.htmlComment: Bunds and Gilts have room to rally as they yield considerably more than US Treasuries (even though all are at or close to record low interest rates). This in turn helps explain continued demand for index-linked issues. TNote futures balked at the 2.00% level in December last year, understandably as only during WW II have they yielded so little. Price action since then, with sharp weekly swings, is seen as a ‘pennant’ and another rush higher is imminent. A weekly close above the 9-weekTue, 21 Apr 2009 10:42:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-04-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-04-14.htmlComment: Many may have become frustrated by the lack of progress so far this year. We view this as a market a) getting used to these extreme levels and b) setting up for a break outside the recent consolidation band. The latest decline can be seen as an A, B, C-type correction where C is just under 0.6 times A. Yesterday’s close above 123.00 should soon turn momentum bullish, setting off another rally to 125.00 and then more slowly to contract high at 126.24. Strategy: Buy at 123.00; stop wellTue, 14 Apr 2009 08:19:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-04-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-04-07.htmlComment: Bursting higher from retracement support around 119.00/120.00, then giving up most of these gains over the last two weeks. Rather than make too much of these sharp moves, we view this as a market a) getting used to these extreme levels and b) setting up for a break outside this year’s consolidation band. The latest decline can be seen as an A, B, C-type correction where C is just over 0.6 times A. A daily close above 123.00 should turn momentum bullish again setting off another rallyTue, 07 Apr 2009 10:46:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-04-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-03-17.htmlComment: US Democrats, with quite a few Treasury and other positions still to fill, appear to be orchestrating a ‘feel good’ PR campaign to reassure Joe Public that they know what they are doing and that it will work. Why else would you haul Mr. Bernanke onto commercial television to say that things should improve by year-end, encourage prominent investors to say that equities are a good long term buy, and allow bankers to say they are well capitalised? This futures contract has been workingTue, 17 Mar 2009 09:50:12 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-03-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-03-10.htmlComment: Long-dated TNotes have held up slightly better than shorter maturities, flattening the yield curve a little – a process we feel has a lot further to go. This futures contract has a potential ‘double bottom’ against retracement support around 119.00/120.00, a daily close above 123.00 completing the formation and hopefully adding some much-needed bullish momentum. With TED spreads widening out a little again, three month at 111 basis points today, safe-haven seekers might be willing toTue, 10 Mar 2009 08:55:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-03-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-03-03.htmlComment: The headlong rush into two-year Treasuries has resumed as stock indices slide quickly to their lowest levels in several years. TNote prices and yields have been working in corrective ‘flag’ formations since December, futures bullish momentum shrinking dramatically over the last six weeks. This futures contract has a potential ‘double bottom’ against retracement support around 119.00/120.00. We now expect a test of the top of the ‘flag’ at 122.11, a daily close above 123.00 setting offTue, 03 Mar 2009 08:44:22 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-03-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-02-24.htmlComment: The US yield curve is expected to flatten, as longer ones drop, so that two’s/ten’s should shrink closer to 120 basis points. Open interest in this contract is smaller than it has been in six years, underlining the massive de-leveraging that has gone on and continues, albeit more slowly. Prices and yields have been working in a corrective ‘flag’ formation since December, understandable as they balk at some of the lowest ever yields in American history. Note: the all-time low yield onTue, 24 Feb 2009 09:59:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-02-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-02-17.htmlComment: German and US thirty-year benchmark Treasuries now yield the same, as expected, though two and five-year maturities still need to catch up. This futures contract has bounced from retracement support at the bottom of a ‘flag’ formation in the middle of a massive Ichimoku ‘cloud’. Having tested the 26-day average and stalled, we now favour a test of the top of the ‘cloud’. An eventual re-test of contract high at 128.13 should help see the US curve flatten again. Strategy: Buy at 123.21,Tue, 17 Feb 2009 10:10:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-02-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-02-10.htmlComment: January’s correction continues, longer and taking prices lower than we expected. Nevertheless it takes the shape of a ‘flag’ and prices should try to base against retracement support in the middle of a massive Ichimoku ‘cloud’. We now favour a rally back up towards the top of the ‘cloud’ and the 26-day average where some hesitation might occur. An eventual re-test of contract high at 128.13 should help see the US curve flatten again. Strategy: Buy at 121.30; stop below 118.31. Add toTue, 10 Feb 2009 09:15:44 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-02-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-02-03.htmlComment: January’s correction takes the shape of a ‘flag’ and prices appear to be basing against retracement support after an A, C, C-type move where C=A. We now favour a rally back up to the top of the ‘cloud’ and the 26-day average at 125.10 where some hesitation might occur. An eventual re-test of contract high at 128.13 should help see the US curve flatten again. Medium term we expect benchmark ten-year yields to drop through 2.00% to 1.60%, thirty-year ones to 2.00% eventually. Strategy:Tue, 03 Feb 2009 09:16:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-02-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-01-27.htmlComment: Benchmark ten-year TNotes continue to shy away from the 2.00% level, probably because the only other time this instrument’s yield was this low was during World War II, so no wonder we are struggling. Meanwhile two-year TNotes are taking their lead from interbank rates and thirty-year is suddenly so unfashionable it isn’t even funny. We feel this consolidation is an opportunity for investors to get used to these very low yields and we still favour a re-test of contract high at 128.13.Tue, 27 Jan 2009 08:49:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-01-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-01-20.htmlComment: Open interest and daily volume almost a third of last year’s peak have encouraged some to describe Treasuries as an asset bubble in the making. We disagree and feel that the terrifying state of global finance has led to a Japanese-style rush for risk-free investments. Well, would you really want to own bank shares? Benchmark ten-year TNotes continue to shy away from the 2.00% level where twenty-year TIPS currently trade. The only other time this instrument’s yield was this low wasTue, 20 Jan 2009 09:40:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-us-ten-year-note-future/2009-01-20.html