http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-11-18.htmlComment: Two’s/ten’s Gilt spread flattened as expected, with rates oneach leg moving in opposite directions. There should be more to come led by long dated yields dropping as investors realise that ultra-low interest rates are likely to persist for a very long time. Front-month money market futures should therefore rally towards official targets, helped by the forward element dropping out of the forward forward. This March 2009 contract, having set a new record high, is consolidating in aWed, 18 Nov 2009 08:56:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-11-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-11-11.htmlComment: Hard to believe but despite another £25B of Quantative Easing Gilt yields have backed up by more than others so that two’s-ten’s spread hit a new record at 310 basis points – where the Short Sterling front March green March is trading. In fact every aspect of the UK yield curve looks too extraordinary for words: no money market funds for many yet benchmark 2-year yielding a record low 0.75%; Index-linked 2055 yielding just 0.31%; red-Dec futures priced at 2.25%; Consols at 5.00%. ThisWed, 11 Nov 2009 09:50:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-11-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-11-04.htmlComment: Whatever the Bank of England does about Quantative Easing at tomorrow’s meeting, they will probably be damned if they do and damned if they don’t. The UK taxpayer is sick and tired of the billions given to bankers and now NS&I has been roped in to raise money for the Treasury to bail out RBS. Position-trimming in this contract over the last week suggests disappointment it did not set a new record high though 3-month Libor remains stuck around 0.59%. We still feel futures contractsWed, 04 Nov 2009 10:00:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-11-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-10-28.htmlComment: The strongest daily close ever, and March 2010 Eurodollars doing something similar, as we ponder how low rates can go. Note: 50-year Index-Linked Gilts are yielding just 34 basis points. Although 3-month Libor remains stuck around 0.59%, we feel futures contracts can and will trade higher, pushed up by very large Ichimoku ‘clouds’ and bullish moving averages. Impressive volume and rising open interest last week suggests many are not prepared to ‘wait and see’. Strategy: Attempt smallWed, 28 Oct 2009 09:16:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-10-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-10-21.htmlComment: Over the last week open interest in this contract has picked up smartly suggesting many are hedging their bets. ‘Triangle’ consolidation over the last six weeks should lead to a break higher, hopefully sooner rather than later because September’s candles will give the Lagging Span a small lift. The contract is no longer overbought and might get a push from the rising 26-day moving average. While above 99.000 we shall allow for a series of very cautious rallies towards 99.500, notingWed, 21 Oct 2009 08:36:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-10-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-10-14.htmlComment: Some are suggesting that Gilts are the latest asset ‘bubble’; we disagree and feel that a case can be made for these to yield about 20 basis points less than their German and US counterparts. Short Sterling calendar spreads should continue to narrow as hopes for economic recovery fade and/or are delayed, Dec09/Dec10 possibly dropping to 100 pips from over 200 in August. ‘Triangle’ consolidation over the last four weeks should cause a break higher imminently because the contract is noWed, 14 Oct 2009 08:21:24 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-10-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-10-07.htmlComment: Ten-year Gilts are leading the way to lower yields, and with Index-Linked ones yielding between 40 and 70 basis points two-year paper at 75 looks rather poor value. Therefore we feel the yield curve should flatten significantly medium term, and then stay flat for ages. Short Sterling calendar spreads should narrow too as hopes for economic recovery fade and/or are delayed, meaning red months offer better buying opportunities. Record volume on the 29th September’s sell-off is aWed, 07 Oct 2009 09:09:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-10-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-09-30.htmlComment: Clearer signs of instability with a sudden drop following a new contract high at 99.240, as the Bank of England back-peddles on what interest it might pay on banks’ excess reserves. So far the decline is holding above the 26-day moving average at 99.040, and the Lagging Span might find support from the trendline. While above 99.000 we shall allow for a series of very cautious rallies towards 99.500, and we remind that Jun10 and especially Sep10 have greater scope to move to newWed, 30 Sep 2009 08:57:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-09-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-09-23.htmlComment: Slightly unstable as moving averages and the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ are decidedly bullish but the weekly candles show contracts trading up in a third leg of a potential ‘broadening top’. While above 99.000 we shall allow for yet more very cautious rallies, and we remind that Jun10 and especially Sep10 have greater scope to move significantly higher. The real question this week is when Libor will drop below Base – it is offered below there out to two months but as yet no one has taken theWed, 23 Sep 2009 07:57:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-09-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-09-16.htmlComment: Base Rate is no longer what it used to be as Mervyn King ponders reducing ‘the rate of remuneration on a certain level of reserves’. Frenzied activity with the Gilt yield curve steeper than it has been in decades, benchmark two-year a record low 0.699%, massive volume in Short Sterling as calendar spreads narrow because he also reckoned economic recovery was a long way off. Front month contracts rallied to new highs, red ones doing even better, Jun10 and Sep10 having the potential toWed, 16 Sep 2009 09:22:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-09-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-09-09.htmlComment: Front month contracts rallied to new highs, and red ones have done even better, so that calendar spreads narrowed at last. Rising open interest, though still 33% down on June 2007’s peak, suggests hedging continues while Libor rates remain fairly steady. This contract is very overbought and low bullish momentum may cause a sudden brief slide. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 99.010 but only if prepared to add to 98.900; stop below 98.750. Target 99.350/99.450.Wed, 09 Sep 2009 08:31:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-09-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-09-02.htmlComment : Benchmark two-year Gilt yields are holding comfortably below 1.00%, a record low of 0.785%, for a third week in a row as investors realise the authorities are likely to keep rates ultra-low for quite some time. Short Sterling calendar spreads have therefore narrowed and have a lot further to go. Rising futures prices and rising open interest suggest hedging close to all-time highs. Slightly overbought and collapsing bullish momentum hint at another imminent shakeout. Be very careful.Wed, 02 Sep 2009 09:38:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-09-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-08-12.htmlComment: A nasty week in the Gilt and money markets with big gyrations on good volume as many were taken by surprise. While very long-dated Gilts outperformed, flattening the curve and gaining on their German and US equivalents, Short Sterling calendar spreads widened towards records as the front month contract set a new record high at 99.330 while red months remain at their lowest prices of the last eight months. We continue to feel these spreads are not sustainable and ought to reverseWed, 12 Aug 2009 08:56:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-08-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-08-05.v02.htmlComment: Signs of instability in front month Short Sterling futures, though calendar spreads have widened further and are at their steepest since 1994. Nevertheless we continue to feel that the UK Treasury yield curve should flatten and that futures calendar spreads at current levels are not sustainable. In fact we are tempted to say that the futures market has ‘decoupled’ from cash and the two currently bear little resemblance to each other. Rising open interest in this March 2010 futureWed, 05 Aug 2009 08:05:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-08-05.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-08-05.htmlComment: Signs of instability in front month Short Sterling futures, though calendar spreads have widened further and are at their steepest since 1994. Nevertheless we continue to feel that the UK Treasury yield curve should flatten and that futures calendar spreads at current levels are not sustainable. In fact we are tempted to say that the futures market has ‘decoupled’ from cash and the two currently bear little resemblance to each other. Rising open interest in this March 2010 futureWed, 05 Aug 2009 08:05:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-08-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-07-29.htmlComment: Short Sterling calendar spreads are at some of the steepest ever and should narrow, this time caused by a potential shake-out in front month contracts. Though this March 2010 future is still holding in a slightly unstable ‘channel’, a drop to its lower edge some time in the next three weeks is possible, as the general feeling is that interbank rates have probably gone as low as they can. Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny shorts at 98.550; stop above 98.750. Add to shorts on a dailyWed, 29 Jul 2009 08:26:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-07-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-07-22.htmlComment: Short Sterling calendar spreads are at some of the steepest ever, and should narrow as red months catch up with what has been happening in the front ones; the Gilt yield curve should flatten too. This March 2010 future is holding in a slightly unstable ‘channel’, testing contract high at 98.690/98.730, and because of steady bullish momentum and a massive rapidly rising weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ we feel a break higher is imminent. As with all money market futures which are trading atWed, 22 Jul 2009 08:27:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-07-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-07-15.htmlComment: Short Sterling futures have rallied, front contracts to new record highs, overbought and bullish momentum easing slightly. The Ichimoku ‘cloud’, which has done such a good job for the bulls, is now very thin suggesting increased instability – though no hint of a turn in trend yet. The closer Libor gets to Base Rate, the question will be: what next? Allow for at least another week’s worth of cautious rallying but buy downside protection as a sudden drop to 98.900/98.800 is aWed, 15 Jul 2009 08:44:46 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-07-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-07-08.htmlComment: The UK Treasury yield curve and futures calendar spreads are at their widest in at least a decade, way too much economic good news and inflation priced in. These should narrow over the next three months, maybe a lot longer albeit slowly. This front Sep contract has nudged to a new all-time high at 99.040 and the next four contract months should post new record highs imminently. The Ichimoku ‘cloud’, which has done such a good job for the bulls, has now become very thin suggestingWed, 08 Jul 2009 08:33:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-07-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-07-01.htmlComment: The UK Treasury yield curve is expected to flatten from current sky-high levels where two’s/thirty’s are over 300 basis points. Futures calendar spreads should start narrowing over the next three months. The Ichimoku ‘cloud’ continues to limit the downside and moving averages confirm that the long term trend is still for higher prices. Whether a rally though 99.000 is possible or sustainable is the real question. Strategy: Buy at 98.900, adding to 98.800; stop well below 98.750. AddWed, 01 Jul 2009 08:26:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-07-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-06-24.htmlComment: Very good volume as prices rally from recent lows, combined with dwindling open interest suggest many have been caught out by recent moves. The long term trend to higher prices is intact – even as the speed of the rally has slowed very considerably, the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ having done exceedingly well in limiting thedownside. One-year calendar spreads are close to their widest in at least a decade (though below the 1994 peak at 250-290). We feel front March/March 2010 should narrow fromWed, 24 Jun 2009 09:18:12 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-06-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-06-17.htmlComment: Good volume last week as front months understandably bounce back a lot more than red ones. This situation may shift slightly this week as the UK Treasury curve is expected to flatten from some of the steepest levels ever seen. Meanwhile Chancellor Darling will today outline changes in financial oversight where the rumour is for draconian liquidity requirements which are especially onerous on branches of foreign banks. Under these conditions it is difficult to imagine Base rate goingWed, 17 Jun 2009 08:29:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-06-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-06-10.htmlComment: Many have belatedly woken up to the fact that when trading close to record highs the slightest whiff of trouble means prices collapse faster than a pack of cards. Red months have dropped anything up to 80 basis points in six working days, needless to say correcting the overbought situation. The thought of central banks raising rates this autumn does not merit discussion: price declines are due to potential renewed pressure in the interbank market. Bids for three-month money vary by 60Wed, 10 Jun 2009 08:19:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-06-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-06-03.htmlComment: The UK yield curve is steeper than it’s been in at least twenty years, benchmark short-dated Gilts ‘firmly anchored’ around the 1.00% mark while fives and tens swing violently, thirty’s and fifty’s a bit better behaved. This is expected to be a feature of interest rate structures in the US and Eurozone too, as well as Japan, for a very long time yet. Three-month Libor remains stuck at 1.26%, two-week money considerably lower at 0.61%, so no wonder futures contracts are marchingWed, 03 Jun 2009 09:03:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-06-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-05-27.htmlComment: Despite S&P threatening to downgrade of UK sovereign debt, Gilts have held up better than Bunds or TNotes so that yield spreads narrowed as expected (with further to go against the latter). Three-month Libor continues to lose about one basis point per day so that it is offered at 1.26%. Short Sterling futures burst to record highs last week, this contract becoming slightly unstable around 99.000, and should correct and consolidate for another week or two. Strategy: Do as little asWed, 27 May 2009 08:18:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-05-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-05-20.htmlComment: The UK yield curve remains terribly steep though the spread of Gilt yields over their US and Eurozone equivalents has narrowed as expected - and there is probably a little further to go. Three-month Libor continues to lose about one basis point per day so that it is offered at 1.31% today – though some can get money for less. Short Sterling futures burst higher on good volume and rising open interest over the last week, this contract to a new record at 98.960 and record overbought.Wed, 20 May 2009 08:34:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-05-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-05-13.htmlComment: The Bank of England’s throwing billions at the problem yet the spread between two and ten-year benchmark Gilt yields at 250 basis points is wider than it has been in almost two decades (though very long-dated paper has come in for a bit of a re-think this month). Three-month Libor has inched fractionally lower again, offered at 1.39% today, possibly more expensive than absolutely necessary in order to maximise returns. Short Sterling futures should continue to trade broadly sidewaysWed, 13 May 2009 09:25:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-05-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-05-06.htmlComment: Interestingly open interest has increased quite a bit over the last six weeks although contracts are holding well within January’s range. Three-month Libor has inched fractionally lower again, offered at 1.43% today, but banks can obtain pounds in more roundabout ways a lot more cheaply than that so it becomes more of an accounting issue. Short Sterling futures should continue to trade broadly sideways with a very slight upside bias in the front months. Strategy: Attempt small longsWed, 06 May 2009 08:04:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-05-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-04-29.htmlComment: With two-year Gilt yields threatening to drop below 1.00% (currently 1.11%), and three-month TBills yielding less than Base Rate (currently 0.46%) hopes that the financial sector is back on track are misplaced. Three-month Libor has inched fractionally lower again, offered at 1.45% today. Short Sterling futures should continue to trade broadly sideways with a very slight upside bias in the front months. Note that open interest has increased over the last month suggesting new hedging.Wed, 29 Apr 2009 08:21:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-04-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-04-22.htmlComment: Three-month Libor is inching fractionally lower, at a snail’s pace, offered at 1.49% today. However, the chance of it dropping to Base Rate this year is currently considered next to nil. Short Sterling futures should continue to trade broadly sideways with a very slight upside bias in the front months. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 98.520; stop below 98.350. Cover between 98.650 and 98.800.Wed, 22 Apr 2009 07:32:08 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-04-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-04-15.htmlComment: This front September contract is holding up better than red months as hopes for a ‘V’-shaped economic recovery in 2009 fade; front December will probably suffer something similar over the next month or two. Three-month Libor today is 1.535%, with decent size changing hands and some able to fund themselves a good ten basis points under this rate. Short Sterling futures should continue to trade broadly sideways (in a relatively wide band considering Base Rate is 0.50%) with an upsideWed, 15 Apr 2009 07:51:24 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-04-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-04-08.htmlComment: Three-month Libor today is 1.57%, with decent chunks of money changing hands, in what is becoming an increasingly a two-tier market – those who can fund themselves below this rate and those who have to pay up (and over). Front month Short Sterling futures have rallied a little more than we had allowed for because of this. They should continue to trade broadly sideways in a relatively wide band considering Base Rate is 0.50%. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 98.590, adding to 98.410;Wed, 08 Apr 2009 08:19:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-04-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-03-18.htmlComment: The Swiss National Bank has decided to copy the Bank of England’s Quantitative Easing (and talking down the currency), so that moves in the Conf might be as significant as those in Gilts. Short Sterling futures should continue trading broadly sideways for another few weeks, snaking their way inside very wide Ichimoku ‘clouds’. Longer term they will be hoping that spreads over target interest rates narrow, something that is unlikely to happen in a hurry. Three-month Libor today isWed, 18 Mar 2009 08:39:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-03-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-03-11.htmlComment: The Gilt yield curve is flattening (and has a lot further to go) thanks to threats from the Bank of England on Quantitative Easing. Short Sterling futures have seen pretty good volume over the last week suggesting recent price moves have surprised many. These should continue to trade broadly sideways for another few weeks, snaking their way inside very wide Ichimoku ‘clouds’. Longer term they will be hoping that spreads over target interest rates narrow, something that is unlikely toWed, 11 Mar 2009 09:05:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-03-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-03-04.htmlComment: Short Sterling futures contracts are likely to trade broadly sideways for another few weeks, snaking their way inside very wide Ichimoku ‘clouds’, regardless of what the Bank of England does this week. Longer term they will be hoping that spreads over target interest rates narrow, something that is unlikely to happen in a hurry. Strategy: Possibly attempt small longs at 98.250, adding to 98.070; stop/possibly reverse below 98.000 for 97.800. Cover between 98.360 and 98.545.Wed, 04 Mar 2009 08:47:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-03-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-02-25.htmlComment: Three weeks to delivery and open interest in this contract is still almost double June09’s, almost a quarter of the total, underlining the fact that nobody really knows where term Libor should trade. The Gilt curve should flatten, admittedly from extremely steep levels, as long-dated yields move towards their German and US counterparts. The gyrations of Index Linked yields are truly terrifying and talk of deflation must be misplaced because yields have dropped from 2.50/3.00% inWed, 25 Feb 2009 09:46:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-02-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-02-18.htmlComment: Amazing that open interest in this contract is still almost double June09’s, and almost a quarter of the total, underlining the fact that nobody really knows where term Libor should trade. Our worries about poachers and gamekeepers grow, HM Treasury planning to hire 70 redundant bankers and beef up their press office. Great! The one thing banks can’t provide: cast iron taxpayer guaranteed, final salary pension schemes. Futures contracts are likely to trade broadly sideways for anotherWed, 18 Feb 2009 09:19:37 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-02-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-02-11.htmlComment: Gilts should outperform their German and US counterparts and the curve could flatten at an alarming rate. With everybody and anybody clamouring for government handouts, and politicians all too eager to oblige so as to stem their unpopularity ratings, it is very worrying that those overseeing the job appear to be riddled with poachers rather than gamekeepers. Futures contracts are likely to trade broadly sideways for another few weeks because the interbank market is still in a veryWed, 11 Feb 2009 08:41:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-02-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-02-04.htmlComment: The spread of Gilt yields over their German and US counterparts should narrow, especially hard-hit thirty-year maturities, regardless of what the Bank of England’s MPC decides Thursday (almost unanimously expected –50 basis points to 1.00%). The ongoing process of deciding where real interest rates should be, depending on currency, credit and maturity, is likely to be lengthy and subject to sudden big revisions – as seen in Index Linkers. Libor is unlikely to follow, three-monthsWed, 04 Feb 2009 09:15:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-02-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-01-28.htmlComment: In yesterday’s Reuters Quarterly interest rate poll consensus opinion is that money market rates will drift closer to Base Rate over the next 12 months and that Gilt yields will drop a little over the fist six months but increase in the second half of 2009 (presumably as the economy recovers). We do not subscribe to this view and feel that Treasury yields will drop and then stay low all year. The UK yield curve is steeper than it has been in almost 20 years and ought to flattenWed, 28 Jan 2009 10:07:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-short-sterling/2009-01-28.html