http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-11-16.htmlComment: Dull as prices hold within the range established since July. We hope that the combination of Fibonacci and channel support, the rising Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and a potential ‘double bottom’ will eventually push this contract through key resistance at 123.04. Strategy: Attempt longs at 121.35; stop well below 120.50. Add to longs on a daily close above 122.00 and again above 123.00 for 124.00/124.60 before year-end.Mon, 16 Nov 2009 08:39:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-11-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-11-09.htmlComment: Very dreary that Bund futures are back down where they were the week before last – and within the range established since July. A marked preference for Schatz and Bobls mean these are trading at the higher end of this year’s ranges. We hope that the combination of Fibonacci and channel support and the rising Ichimoku ‘cloud’ will once again stem this futures contract’s decline. Strategy: Attempt longs at 120.75; stop well below 120.50. Add to longs on a daily close above 122.00 andMon, 09 Nov 2009 08:47:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-11-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-11-02.htmlComment: Benchmark yields are again testing pivotal levels: Schatz 1.25%, ten-year 3.25% and 30-year 4.00%. It is just a matter of time before these drop to this year’s lows, breaking out of the relatively tight band established early this summer. The combination of Fibonacci and channel support, the rising Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and candles supporting the Lagging Span, stemmed the futures contract’s decline last week as hoped. Friday’s close at 121.90, the highest weekly one since early October,Mon, 02 Nov 2009 08:38:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-11-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-10-27.htmlComment: Benchmark Schatz yields seem to have got the message, easing from this month’s high at 1.470% to 1.330% (though there is still plenty of room to catch up with their US and Swedish counterparts which are yielding 1.000% a record low 0.680% respectively). This Bund futures has retraced more than we had allowed for yet the move is undoubtedly corrective. Hopefully the combination of Fibonacci and channel support, plus the rising Ichimoku ‘cloud’, will stem the decline despite yesterday’sTue, 27 Oct 2009 11:47:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-10-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-10-19.htmlComment: Last week’s pullback is undoubtedly corrective, another balk at the benchmark 3.00% level. From overbought the contract is now almost oversold and momentum is nil. Expect it to form an interim base, probably around 121.50/121.00, around short term Fibonacci support, helped by the rising Ichimoku ‘cloud’. Note also that the Lagging Span should gather support from the candles and Fibonacci support. This is seen as a buying opportunity for an eventual move higher so that yields couldMon, 19 Oct 2009 07:49:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-10-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-10-12.htmlComment: Yield curve flattening last week with Bobls being hit more than other maturities as yields back up. Increasingly important resistance at 123.00 in the Bund future, and the psychological 3.00% benchmark yield level, suggest prices will hold below here this week and possibly next one too. The contract is no longer overbought though bullish momentum is low. Expect it to form an interim base, probably around 121.50/121.00. This is seen as a buying opportunity for an eventual move higherMon, 12 Oct 2009 08:32:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-10-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-10-05.htmlComment: October brought with it a new mind-set in the Treasury market with yields slipping suddenly, benchmark ten-year Bunds moving towards 2005’s low yield of 3.00%, ahead of the all-time low 2.85% of January this year. Moving averages on the weekly yield chart have crossed to bearish and a massive Ichimoku ‘cloud’ should bear down on yields. We favour a re-test of the record low and a lot more yield curve flattening, so we could see a drop to 2.50% and maybe 2.25%. Note that some EurozoneMon, 05 Oct 2009 08:18:58 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-10-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-09-28.htmlComment: Though slightly overbought, and bullish momentum not all it could be, it is just a matter of time before Bund futures break above 122.02 – one standard deviation from the mean since March. For three consecutive months benchmark ten-year Bund yields have peaked around 3.50%, forming ‘spike highs’, and we feel these will set off a sharp drop in yields during October. We favour a re-test of the record low 2.85% set in January and the yield curve flattening we still favour could see aMon, 28 Sep 2009 09:07:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-09-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-09-21.htmlComment: Slow work as benchmark yields toy with psychological levels: 1.00% one-year, 3.25% ten-year and 4.00% thirty-year. Last week’s sell-off has seen the Bund future move from very overbought to very oversold and momentum has swung from bullish to bearish – all in the space of a week, underlining the relatively narrow trading range of the last three months. Expect it to base in the 120.00 area once more, leading to a re-test of increasingly key resistance around 121.50. Strategy: Buy atMon, 21 Sep 2009 10:52:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-09-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-09-14.htmlComment: The strongest weekly close since late May (just) while last week’s dip to 120.17 corrected the overbought situation. Schatz yields have little room to manoeuvre as they trade close to record lows so investors will be tempted out along the curve flattening it in the process. It is just a matter of time before we close above 122.00, one standard deviation from the mean, and rally to contract highs (at least). Strategy: Buy at 121.55, adding to 121.00; stop well below 120.00. Add toMon, 14 Sep 2009 11:06:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-09-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-09-07.htmlComment : Disappointing as Bund yields fail to keep up with Schatz ones which dropped to a new record low of 1.075% today (and two-year Gilts yielding just 0.88% for a fourth consecutive week despite all the hot air on deteriorating government finances). This Bund futures is no longer overbought though bullish momentum has collapsed. Nevertheless it is just a matter of time before we close above 122.00, one standard deviation from the mean, and rally to contract highs (at least). Strategy :Mon, 07 Sep 2009 10:18:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-09-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-09-01.htmlComment: Despite signs of deflation in several countries Index Linked Treasury yields have dropped closer to all-time low yields during the last two weeks. Likewise Shatz, leading the way to lower yields as it sets up for a re-test of the all-time low of 1.097% set in March. Bund futures closed last week at the highest price since late March, retracing almost 61% of the drop between March and June this year. It is just a matter of time before they break above here and move higher, eventuallyTue, 01 Sep 2009 11:24:46 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-09-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-08-10.htmlComment: The Friday’s sell-off, probably caused by instability in 30-year paper which is struggling at the 4.00% area, has taken the contact back down to the fairly pivotal 120.00 level. It is no longer overbought but momentum is now nil. Expect another basing attempt here this week followed by a squeeze through trendline resistance by month-end. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 120.30; stop well below 119.90. Add to longs on a daily close above 121.25 for 122.25 short term, then more longMon, 10 Aug 2009 08:14:08 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-08-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-08-03.htmlComment: The German yield curve flattened suddenly last week (we say at last!) with thirty-year Bunds now testing the psychological 4.00% level. We feel this process has a lot further to go as Bunds outperform US Treasuries. Last week’s rally from the fairly pivotal 120.00 area was much stronger than we had hoped and has formed a ‘bullish engulfing’ weekly candle, closing just above the very large weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ at the top of this year’s very large ‘flag’ consolidation pattern. ThoughMon, 03 Aug 2009 07:57:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-08-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-07-27.htmlComment: Many are wondering why Bund prices aren’t lower considering many stock indices are at new highs for the year; shows that simplistic assumptions are just that. Bunds retreated to the 120.00 area (benchmark yield 3.45%), which is fairly pivotal for a market looking for direction, and are now oversold. Futures should try and base against 120.00 this week prior to another rally so that yields re-test important support at 3.25%. The wide weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ has done an excellent job inMon, 27 Jul 2009 08:14:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-07-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-07-20.htmlComment: German Treasuries should continue to outperform US ones, especially the five-year area. June’s ‘spike low’ has been capped by last week’s ‘bearish engulfing’ candle, underlying the fact that the 120.00 area (benchmark yield 3.45%) is fairly pivotal and that this is a market looking for direction. Allow for another week or two’s worth of consolidation as yields are unlikely to break successfully below 3.25% just yet. The steeply wide weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ has done an excellent job inMon, 20 Jul 2009 08:13:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-07-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-07-13.htmlComment: As stock indices keel over and give up about one third of the gains from March to May’s high, many will be forced to reassess the optimistic forecasts they have been clinging to for at least three months. Despite record issuance and potential inflation Treasuries have been bought steadily for four weeks and credit spreads are widening again. As two-year paper has less room to manoeuvre, the yield curve should flatten. All this underlines the fact that the drop below 120.00 was someMon, 13 Jul 2009 08:05:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-07-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-07-06.htmlComment: Top-heavy equity indices are forcing investors back into the safety of top-quality short-dated Treasuries, Bunds and Gilts leading the way to lower yields. This underlines the fact that the drop below 120.00 was some sort of ‘extension’ which culminated in a massive ‘spike low’, which is now a new important interim low. Having got the squeeze towards 122.00 early in July as expected, because the Lagging Span now must work its way through a series of chart levels between 121.50 andMon, 06 Jul 2009 08:22:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-07-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-06-29.v02.htmlComment: Another strong weekly rally so that the monthly candle now looks like an even more powerful ‘spike low’ – and Bobls are doing even better and should continue to outperform their US counterparts as Schatz are doing. Price action is all the more impressive considering these are trading not that far off their highest ever levels. Though overbought momentum is strongly bullish suggesting another squeeze to 122.00 early in July though we shall have to allow for some hesitation below 121.50Mon, 29 Jun 2009 09:44:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-06-29.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-06-23.htmlComment: Price action in Bunds and Bobls this month is very impressive, a potentially massive ‘spike low’, and all the more so considering these are trading not that far off their highest ever levels. Note also we saw a similar candle from a similar level in March 2005, and that momentum is currently bullish. When many look back in awe at this year’s stock index rallies since March, convincing themselves that all is well with the world, beware. We expect fixed income futures to rally throughTue, 23 Jun 2009 09:14:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-06-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-06-15.htmlComment: Gung-ho Treasury traders spent last week reviewing economic prospects and assumptions bandied around by nervous politicians. The conclusion? That benchmark ten-year at 4.00%, plus another 400 basis points on top of that for BAA credits, is very expensive. This futures contract has formed a small ‘spike low’ against 50% retracement support and the weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’. We expect futures to rally through to the end of this month, to 122.00, maybe more if momentum turns bullish earlyMon, 15 Jun 2009 07:56:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-06-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-06-08.htmlComment: Very disappointing as Bunds drop by a little more than we had allowed for, maybe due in part to contracts rolling over, retracing half of last year’s gains. Small mercies but US TBonds have given up all of last year’s rally so that these now yield 30 basis points over thirty-year Bunds (and will probably move to 60 over). There are also small signs that both the US and German yield curves are topping, admittedly at much steeper levels than we had suggested. We expect Bunds toMon, 08 Jun 2009 08:19:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-06-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-06-01.htmlComment: The back up in yields may have come to an end with last week’s small ‘doji’ candle. Patterns are a little clearer in US fixed income futures yet we feel that these with maturities of five years or more should yield 50 or 60 basis points over German ones. Therefore this Bund contract has room to catch up. Strategy: Attempt longs at 118.90; stop below 118.00. Add to longs on a weekly close above 120.35 and again on a daily one above 121.50 for 123.00 medium term and eventuallyMon, 01 Jun 2009 10:04:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-06-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-05-26.htmlComment: Bund and Bobl yields squeezed to their highest this year while Shatz ones continue to hover close to record lows (as do index-linkers). Nevertheless Bunds remain within normal long term retracement parameters and under the pivotal 3.64% level (one standard deviation from the mean since 1998). This futures contract’s break below 120.00 in thin markets yesterday has put it into oversold territory and is seen as an ‘extension’ which should be reversed this week. Strategy: Attempt smallTue, 26 May 2009 08:33:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-05-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-05-18.htmlComment: The German yield curve is steeper than it has been in a dozen years, Shatz yields crushed by the ECB’s target rate and Bunds battered by new issues. This futures contract is precariously poised, frustrating both bulls and bears. Our view remains unchanged: price action this year is consolidation under record highs, within traditional retracement parameters and above a broadening Ichimoku ‘cloud’. New shorts established this month on the break below the ‘neckline’ of a potentialMon, 18 May 2009 07:46:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-05-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-05-11.htmlComment: Bunds dipped by more than we had allowed for and the spread between benchmark two and ten-year is over 200 basis points for the first time since July 1997. Good volume on Thursday’s drop below 121.50 suggests many have stopped themselves out and the contract is oversold. Benchmark yields at 3.45% reached their 200-day moving average, part of the long process of investors getting used to these historically extremely low levels. We expect moves to reverse imminently so that prices holdMon, 11 May 2009 07:58:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-05-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-05-05.htmlComment: Hard to believe we have spent five consecutive months trading in this relatively small band, but then similar things happened most times the Bund contract hit new record highs. Currently trading one standard deviation from the mean since December and prices ought to try and hold here. Then back up to 124.00, and probably new record highs long term. Strategy: Buy at 122.00; stop well below 121.50. Add to longs on a daily close above 123.25 for 124.20/124.50 short term and then contractTue, 05 May 2009 07:54:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-05-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-04-27.htmlComment: Bunds, especially very long-dated ones, are doing better than US Treasuries and should continue to outperform for another fortnight or more. Likewise index-linked Treasuries as the outlook for inflation/deflation is very complex indeed. Bund futures have bounced from interim support at 121.60, and benchmark ten-year yields retreated from 3.28%. Price action since December is seen as a market getting used to its lowest ever yields, struggling with the 3.00% area, in a potentialMon, 27 Apr 2009 08:22:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-04-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-04-20.htmlComment: Trading close to the highest yields of the last five months with thirty-year holding up a bit better than other maturities. Bund price action since December is seen as a market getting used to its lowest ever yields, struggling with the 3.00% area. At 122.00 or so, the middle of the 120.00 to 125.00 range, things do not look very inspiring just now. Nevertheless we continue to target a drop in yields to 2.50% and probably more long term. Strategy: Attempt at 121.95; stop below 121.00.Mon, 20 Apr 2009 07:29:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-04-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-04-14.htmlComment: Schatz prices are holding up better than other maturities as the realisation that economic problems are here to stay sinks in. Bund price action since December is seen as a market getting used to its lowest ever yields, struggling with the 3.00% area. At 122.00 or so, the middle of the 120.00 to 125.00 band, things do not look especially inspiring just now. Nevertheless we continue to target a drop in yields to 2.50% and probably more long term. Strategy: Strategy remains unchanged:Tue, 14 Apr 2009 08:21:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-04-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-04-07.htmlComment: Those who missed last year’s Treasury note/bond bonanza by being long of equities are probably looking at this Bund pattern with glee, claiming to see a ‘rounded top’ or something. We disagree, viewing price action since December as a market getting used to its lowest ever yields, struggling with the 3.00% area. At 122.00 or so, the middle of the 120.00 to 125.00 band, things do not look especially inspiring just now. Nevertheless we continue to target a drop in yields to 2.50% andTue, 07 Apr 2009 10:39:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-04-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-03-16.htmlComment: Benchmark ten-year Bund yields have struggled with the 3.00% area for three consecutive months, 30-year backing up recently by quite a bit more than we had expected. This is really rather tedious and we keep hoping that the bull trend resumes imminently. We continue to target a drop in yields to 2.50% this month and probably more long term. Strategy: Buy at 123.35; stop below 122.00. Add to longs on a daily close above 125.40 and again on a weekly close above 125.80 for 128.00/128.60.Mon, 16 Mar 2009 08:27:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-03-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-03-09.htmlComment: With one eye on what the Bank of England’s doing benchmark German Treasury yields are dropping, and the yield curve flattening, narrowing the spread over their US counterparts. This process should continue as Shatz yields and the ECB fret over the implications of interest rates less than 1.00%. Bund futures opened a good deal higher Friday, closing over 124.70, which should add some bullish momentum. We continue to target a drop in yields to 2.50% this month and probably more longMon, 09 Mar 2009 08:41:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-03-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-03-02.htmlComment: Benchmark ten-year Bund yields are hovering around 3.00%, ahead of January’s all-time low of 2.856%, as the spread over US Treasuries continues to narrow slowly. A belated rate cut from the ECB is expected this week and medium term we continue to expect Bund yields to drop towards 2.50%; we also favour flattening of the yield curve through much of this year. Today’s gap higher from Friday’s closing price suggests some are re-assessing yet again and that there might me enough momentumMon, 02 Mar 2009 08:44:22 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-03-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-02-23.htmlComment: The German yield curve has started to flatten as benchmark Shatz yields pull back from an all-time low at 1.15% and ten-year Bunds ahead of January’s all-time low of 2.856%. This process should continue, regardless of the direction of interest rates though we remind that over the medium term we expect Bund yields to drop towards 2.50%. Allow for a little more hesitation this week under contract high at 125.30 followed by a sustained break higher as financial Armageddon beckons.Mon, 23 Feb 2009 09:49:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-02-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-02-16.htmlComment: German treasuries have outperformed their US counterparts, as expected, and now we favour yield curve flattening. Partly as investors push for some yield rather than no yield, partly because record low Shatz yields (benchmark low 1.29%) make serious moves more difficult. This Bund future based against retracement support, and while we cannot completely rule out a re-test of the 122.00 area, a sustained break below it looks increasingly unlikely. It would appear that many have yet toMon, 16 Feb 2009 08:32:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-02-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-02-09.htmlComment: German paper’s spread over US Treasuries has narrowed and has a little further to go, though the yield curve out to ten-years is as steep as it was five years ago – and we still think it ought to flatten this year. We also expect this Bund future to base against retracement support, moving slowly higher this week as the Lagging Span gets a small lift from the thick Ichimoku ‘cloud’. Ten-year Bund yields should drop back to 2.85% in three months’ time and trade closer to 2.25% in sixMon, 09 Feb 2009 08:46:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-02-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-02-02.htmlComment: January’s back-up in bond yields was to be expected as many were trading at or close to their lowest ever rates. Thirty-year paper is regaining its composure having been kicked to pieces, becoming totally divorced from reality. The spread over US Treasuries has narrowed and has further to go. We expect this Bund future to base against the very thick Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and retracement support, moving slowly higher this week as the Lagging Span gets a small lift from the 26-day movingMon, 02 Feb 2009 09:57:35 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-02-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-01-26.htmlComment: The Eurozone yield curve has steepened significantly, and more than we expected, as Bund yields back up a lot more than Shatz which remains very well bid; two’s/ten’s should peak ahead of 200 basis points and two’s/thirty’s at 265 where the spread peaked in 2003/2004. The futures’ contract retreat from the record high is understandable and has corrected the overbought situation though bullish momentum has halved. Now we expect it to base against the very thick Ichimoku ‘cloud’ whichMon, 26 Jan 2009 09:03:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-01-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-01-19.htmlComment: German government bonds dipped to their lowest ever yields last week as investors begin to understand the enormity of the problems ahead. Their spread over US Treasuries should narrow over the coming months as we move towards the 1.60% level where Index-linked paper now trades. While very low, it seems a workable level for a risk-free investment in times of economic crisis. Note that the average yield for a ten-year JGB’s has been 1.50% over the last ten years. Bund futures shouldMon, 19 Jan 2009 08:58:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurobund-future/2009-01-19.html