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Multi TimeFrame Market Outlook: EURUSD

Mon, Sep 22 2008, 13:55 GMT
by David Gaudre

WFXAdvisor


Dear traders,    

Please follow the link to read/download updated W.M.O. reports (PDF format) :     


- EUR/USD : http://www.wfxadvisor.com/wmo/2227sept/wmo_eurusd.pdf  

- GBPUSD : http://www.wfxadvisor.com/wmo/2227sept/wmo_gbpusd.pdf  

- USDJPY : http://www.wfxadvisor.com/wmo/2227sept/wmo_usdjpy.pdf      



Any question ?

Visit us at http://www.wfxadvisor.com or feel free to contact us anytime.      


Best Regards,  

David G.
WXFAdvisor CEO & Head Trader

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Multi TimeFrame Market Outlook: EURUSD

Mon, Aug 25 2008, 15:17 GMT
by David Gaudre

WFXAdvisor


Dear traders,    


Please follow the link to read/download updated W.M.O. reports (PDF format) :

- EUR/USD : http://www.wfxadvisor.com/wmo/2529aug/wmo_eurusd.pdf  
- GBPUSD : http://www.wfxadvisor.com/wmo/2529aug/wmo_gbpusd.pdf  
- USDJPY : http://www.wfxadvisor.com/wmo/2529aug/wmo_usdjpy.pdf      


Any question ? Visit us at http://www.wfxadvisor.com or feel free to contact us anytime.



Best Regards,

 
David G.
WFXAdvisor CEO & Head Trader

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Multi TimeFrame Market Outlook: EURUSD

Mon, Aug 11 2008, 14:21 GMT
by David Gaudre

WFXAdvisor


Weekly :

EURUSD Weekly Chart

Last week sees break of main consolidation triangle..to reach 2007 highs support. Expected trading range for coming weeks extends from 1.4760 to 1.5310.

To the upside, as long as above 1.4930 weekly support (2007 highs), price attempt a recovery towards 1.5140 initially (1st objective). If that level does not reject prices, continued corrective upmove towards 1.5305 cluster resistance can be seen (2nd objective). However, only a pullback above 1.55 will mean correction is over.

To the downside, fall below 1.4930 weekly support opens the door for a test of 1.4760 minor support (1st objective). Fall and/or weekly close below that level argue in favor of downside continuation towards 50% fib. retracement (of rise from 1.3350 to 1.5915) at 1.4640 (2nd objective).  Rebound Is awaited here, but if not, fall towards multi-year trendline at 1.4450 is expected.



Daily :

EURUSD Daily Chart

Last days sees a violent fall below the 1.50 level. Expected trading range for cming days extends from 1.4830 to 1.5170.

To the upside, Monday opened below multi-month trendline and tries a pullback above it. If price can clear 1.5020/60 resistance zone, corrective move towards 1.5160 may be seen (1st objective). If 1.5160 does not reject prices, continued correction towards 1.5250 – 1.5310 cluster resistance zone may be seen (2nd objective).

To the downside, Monday opened on 138.2FE witch is acting as daily support until now. Break below this one will let price fall towards 1.4790 – 1.4850 cluster support zone (1st objective). A rebound is expected here, but continued fall below 1.48 will damper this expectation for a test of the 1.46 handle later (2nd objective).



4-Hours :

EURUSD 4-Hours Chart


Price is moving according to a downside channel and moved from channel highs at 1.5605 to channel lows at 1.4950 in few sessions.. Price now consolidate above channel lows.

To the upside
, 1.5090 immediate resistance has to be cleared in order to see a corrective move towards 1.52 intially (1st objective), en-route to 1.5305 main resistance (2nd objective). While below 1.54 – 1.55 resistance zone, bias remain negative.

To the downside, 1.4900/30 main support zone has to be carefully monitored. A break below targets the first profit-taking zone at 1.4720/50 (1st objective), ahead of a second profit-taking zone in the 1.4470 – 1.4515 area (2nd objective).

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Multi TimeFrame Market Outlook: EURUSD

Mon, Jul 21 2008, 14:30 GMT
by David Gaudre

WFXAdvisor


Weekly :

EURUSD Weekly Chart

Last week sees a test of main channel trendline.. rejection has been immediate, but price still above triangle.. Expected trading range for coming weeks extends from 1.5740 to 1.6110.

To the upside, immediate resistance at 1.59 act as a weekly pivot. Break above is needed to target channel high at 1.6025 (1st objective). If this level does not reject price, we may see a continued rise towards 138.2% FE at 1.6116 (2nd objective). In any case, a daily close above 1.60 handle will be a strong buy signal. 

To the downside, triangle low at 1.5730/50 act as a primary support. If reached, a rebound on this level is highly possible. However, if price fall below this 1.5730/50 support, fall towards 1.5670 will follow (1st objective). No rejection here will let prices fall towards triangle lows at 1.55 (2nd objective).

 

Daily :

EURUSD Daily Chart

Last days sees a correction from 1.60 top.. still inside a raising wedge.. Expected trading range for coming days entends from 1.5860 to 1.6030.

To the upside, 1.5785 ealier resistance is now support. While above, thie bias remain positive. Wedge high at 1.5960 (1st objective) has to be outperformed to valid trend continuation. Then, main resistance in the 1.6010/40 area (2nd objective) is the main level to watch Above there, -23.6% fib. projection put next target at 1.6195.

To the downside, break below 1.5820/40 minor support turns the bias neutral, and a test of 1.5775/85 main support may follow (1st objective). Break lower below this level turns the bias negative for a test of the 1.5650/90 cluster support. (2nd objective). Break below 1.5650 is negative.

 

4-Hours :

EURUSD 4-Hours Chart

Last week sees downward, volatile, and spiked consolidation. Early trading hours this week shows a break higher of last consolidation triangle.

To the upside
, while above 1.5820 the bias is positive. 1.5875 minor support may hold & reject price towards 1.5935 minor resistance (1st objective). Then, if no rejection, there’s nothing strong before 1.6040 top (2nd objective). Above there, it’ll meet daily/weekly objectives.

To the downside, break below 1.5820 turns the nias neutral to negative. This first valid support zone comes at 1.5750/75 (1st objective). If no rebound on it, correction towards 1.5710 minor support and then range low at 1.5610 is likely (2nd objective)

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Multi TimeFrame Market Outlook: EURUSD

Mon, Jul 7 2008, 14:52 GMT
by David Gaudre

WFXAdvisor


Weekly :



EURUSD Weekly Chart

Attempt above triangle towards 1.59 rejected..Eur still in corrective mode.. Expected trading range for coming weeks extends from 1.5485 to 1.6010.

To the upside, the consolidation in still the upper-side of the triangle, and while above 1.5580, a first test towards triangle high at 1.5760 can’t be ruled out (1st objective). If 1.5760 resistance is outperformed, price may then rallies towards 1.59 last week top (2nd objective). A break above this level targets 1.60 main channel high.

To the downside, minor support at 1.5580 act as pivot point. A break below this level will allow price to test lower supports in the 1.5450/90 zone (1st objective). If no rebound here, a deeper fall towards multi-months trendline at 1.5390 will follow (2nd objective).



Daily :


EURUSD Daily Chart

1.59 proven to be a strong resistance, Euro remain in the main consolidation range. Expected trading range for coming days entends from 1.5560 to 1.5890.

To the upside
, 1.5620 minor support currently reject prices, and while above this level, a test of 1.5720/40 minor resistance is possilble (1st objective). However, a daily close above this resistance is needed to expect further upmove towards 1.7590 – 1.5810 resistance zone (2nd objective). This resistance zone has to be cleared in order to see a Euro challenging once gain the 1.59 level.

To the downside, pullback in main consolidation triangle allow prices to correct much lower.. If Euro can’t hold above 1.5720/40 minor resistance, further downmove towards 1.5590 may be seen (1st objective). If no rejection here, 1.5550 main support may hold & reject prices (2Nd objective). If no rejection, expect a more pronounced downmove  towards 1.5450.

 

4-Hours :


EURUSD 4-Hours Chart

Euro vertical correction now sees consolidation. Price remain the main raising wedge, and the current trading of (1.5450 – 1.5590) is still valid.

To the upside
, the 1.5620 support act as a pivot point. While above, and depending on oscillators situation and candlestick patterns, further upmove may be seen towards 1.5760 first (1st objective). If the move is impulsive and can be sustained above this level, a test of 1.5820 may follow (2nd objective).  A break above 1.59 is needed to clear raising wedge consolidation pattern.

To the downside
, break below 1.5620 means a deeper correction is coming. Below this level, there’re really not much supports until 1.5540 (1st objective). A break below targets 1.5460 wedge low later this week. A break below 1.5460 wedge low is needed to turn the bias negative.



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Multi TimeFrame Market Outlook: EURUSD

Mon, Jun 30 2008, 14:46 GMT
by David Gaudre

WFXAdvisor


Weekly :


EURUSD Weekly Chart

Rebound on main support has been effective and last week closed above consolidation triangle. Expected trading range extends from 1.5610 to 1.5980.

To the upside
, new highs above 1.5830 weekly high obviously targets 1.5906 main resistance (1st objective). If no rejection at this level, main trendline at 1.5980 (2nd objective) may be reached easily. A break above targets 138.2% FE at 1.6110.

To the downside
, first support to come is 1.5680, backed by 1.5625 (1st objective). If no rebound occurs on this support zone, downside may extends towards 1.5490 last week low (2nd objective). Break below 1.5436 is negative.



Daily :

EURUSD Daily Chart


Falling wedge consolidation is over, but EUR still in mai consolidation range. Expected trading range for coming days extends from 1.5655 to 1.5940.

To the upside, a daily close above 1.5820 is needed to expect an upside break of the range. Then, a rise towards 1.59 minor resistance is likely (1st objective). Above there, 138.2% FE at 1.5947 has to be outperformed in order to expect a test of historical highs reisitance at 1.6010 (2nd objective).

To the downside, first support zone comes at 1.5990 – 1.5705 (1st objective). If this level can’t hold & reject price to the upside, we may see a deeper correction towards 1.5620 triangle low (2nd objective).  Below there, another cluster support at 1.5550/75 may hold & reject prices. Break below this level is negative.



4-Hours :


EURUSD 4-Hours Chart


Still in the main 1.54 – 1.58 range, ocverbought status forces price to consolidate.. towards range low ?

To the upside, 1.5830 is established as main resistance and range top. A break above targets 1.5880 main trendline (1st objective), ahead of 23.6% fib. projection (of rise from 1.5470 to 1.5834) at 1.5920 (2Nd objective). No rejection here targets 1.5975/95 resistance zone later.

To the downside
, broken wedge at 1.5710 act now as a support. If no rebond on it, a deeper consolidation towards 1.5650 range middle is likely (1st objective). If this level can’t hold and reject price, fall towards 2nd cluster support at 1.5560 may be seen (2nd objective). If no one of these supports are able to reject price to the upside, fall towards 1.5450/75 main trendline may follow, and a break below this level is negative. However, range break lower is valid only if price trades below 1.5420.

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Multi TimeFrame Market Outlook: EURUSD

Tue, Jun 17 2008, 12:31 GMT
by David Gaudre

WFXAdvisor


Weekly :


EURUSD Weekly Chart

Rejection from weekly consolidation triangle high has been effective as last week closed below triangle low.. Expected trading range for coming weeks extends from 1.5260 to 1.5770.


To the upside, 1.5485 immediate resistance has to be outperformed in order to allow prices to test main resistance zone at 1.5675 (1st objective). A break above there targets 1-month resistance zone at 1.5770 (2Nd objective). A weekly close above this level is needed to consider current consolidation has ended.

To the downside,  while above 1.5305 the bias remain neutral, but if this crucial support is broken, we may see a bearish impulse towards 1.5250 minor support initially (1st objective). Below, if 1.5140 minor support can’t hold and reject prices, there’re not much supports until 1.4940 (2nd objective).


Daily :


EURUSD Daily Chart

Ranged consolidation continues, waiting for a break.. Expected trading range for coming days extends from 1.5270 to 1.5785.

To the upside, main resistance at 1.5560 has to be cleared and a daily close above that level is needed to expect positive move in the upper side of the range towards 1.5560 initially (1st objective) and then towards 1.5790 main resistance (2nd objective). A break & daily close above 1.5790 is needed to turn the outlook positive towards 1.59 / 1.60 zone.

To the downside, a break below 1.5405 trendline targets 1.5340 and then 1.5280 (1st objective). If no rejection here, break of 1.5280 will turn the bias negative for a test of 1.5160/80 wedge low (2nd objective).


4-Hours :



EURUSD 4-Hours Chart

Prices keeps swinging in a flat range exteding from 1.53 to 1.58. Waiting for a break of one of these limits, witch will trigger a med-term signal, there’re many opportunities to trade that range.

To the upside, while above 1.54 trendline, price may reach range pivot at 1.5560 (1st objective). If price trade above that level, we may see a test of 1.5620/50 resistance zone (2nd objective). Sustained break above this level is needed to expect a test of the 1.58 resistance later.

To the downside, while below 1.56, there is a risk for a fall towards 1.54 trendline (1st objective). If price trades below this level, we may see a deeper corrective moves towards the 1.5280 – 1.5320 support zone (2nd objective).

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Multi TimeFrame Market Outlook: EURUSD

Mon, Jun 9 2008, 14:10 GMT
by David Gaudre

WFXAdvisor


Weekly analysis :


EURUSD Weekly Chart

EUR rebound on triangle base has been very effective as last week closed at 3-weeks highs.. Expected trading range extends from 1.5610 to 1.5950.

To the upside, lasy week argue in favor of a bull trand resume. 1.5675 support act as a pivot point and while price is above we await a rise towards 1st resistance zone at 1.5920 (1st objective). A break above this level trigger a buy signal towards 1.6010 high initially (2nd objective).

To the downside, break below 1.5675 pivot will delay expected rise. Next support zone at 1.5595(1st objective) may reject prices. If not, price should fall towards 1.5485 support (2nd objective) where price reaction has to be monitored. Bias is negative below 1.54.

Daily analysis :


EURUSD Daily Chart

A second rebound on main raising channel has been effective, and EUR daily close occurred above wedge high. Expected trading range for coming days extends from 1.5630 to 1.5970.

To the upside, consolidation is expected above 1.5690 support before another rise towards historical highs. On the way, 1.59 resistance (1st objective) may block and reject prices. A break above opens the dorr for a test of 100% FE at 1.5965 (2nd objective). Above, 1.6019 is the main level to monitor.

To the downside,  break below 1.5690 thurs the bias neutral for a deeper consolidation. Main support at 1.5560 (1st objective) has to be monitored. A rebound may occurs, but a break below this level will allow price to fall towards 1.54 (2nd objective) channel low, where price must rebound to keep the overall bias positive.

4-Hours analysis :



EURUSD 4-Hours Chart


Last week rise sees break of every 4-hours resistances.

At time of writing, the consolidation is very limited and bias remain bullish while above 1.5660/90. A test and rebound on this level is expected, targeting 161.8% FE at 1.5960 (main objective), while a break higher will meet daily objectives.

If prices fall back below 1.5660/90, expect a test of the 1.5580 – 1.5600 support zone first (main objective). Negative consolidation may extends towards 1.55 handle, but a break below 1.5480 is negative. Monitoring price reactions on known supports may be very important this week, to determine if recent rise has been the start of a new trend, of just a part of a larger scale consolidation..

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Multi TimeFrame Market Outlook: EURUSD

Mon, May 26 2008, 16:34 GMT
by David Gaudre

WFXAdvisor


Weekly :


EURUSD Weekly Chart


Rebound on 1.55 trendline has been effective and EUR is going to challenge all-time highs.. Expected trading range for coming weeks extends from 1.56 to 1.5940.

To the upside, 100% FE at 1.5910 is the main resistance zone (1st objective). Above there, if 1.5910 resistance does not reject prices, 1.6010 all-time high (2nd objective) may be reached easily. A weekly close above purple channel high at 1.5940 is needed to confirm uptrend continuation.

To the downside, 1.5675 intermediate support should be tested this week. A break below will let price fall towards last week open at 1.5595 (1st objective). If no rejection here, 1.5515 base may be tested (2nd objective).

Daily :


EURUSD Daily Chart

Last week rise signals end of consolidation we’ve seen earlier in May. Expected trading range for coming days extends from 1.5630 to 1.59.

To the upside, a daily close above 1.5790 resistance is needed to see price testing main resistance at 1.59 (1st objective). Above there, 100% FE at 1.5964 (2nd objective) is the next level to monitor before 1.60 resistance zone.

To the downside, intermediate support at 1.5690 is a minor support witch if broken, will let price fall towards 1.5630 main support (1st objective). If no rebound here, 1.5560/80 support zone (2nd objective) may hold rpices, at least temporaly.

4-Hours :


EURUSD 4-Hours Chart


Price is still trading in a large triangle, and an upside break is likely. Immediate trading range extends from 1.5685 to 1.5820.

To the upside, the 1.5790 – 1.5830 resistance zone has to be broken in order to expect further trending towards 1.5940 (main objective) ahead of 1.6015 top.

To the downside, a break below 1.5670 turns the bias neutral and further consolidation should takes place towards 1.5580 support initially (1st objective). No rejection here will let pruices fall towards the 1.5480 – 1.5510 main support zone (2nd objective) where upside rejection is expected.

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Multi TimeFrame Market Outlook: EURUSD

Tue, May 20 2008, 10:11 GMT
by David Gaudre

WFXAdvisor


Dear traders,


Please follow the link to read/download updated W.M.O. reports (PDF format) :



- EUR/USD : http://www.wfxadvisor.com/wmo/1923may/wmo_eurusd.pdf

- GBPUSD : http://www.wfxadvisor.com/wmo/1923may/wmo_gbpusd.pdf

- USDCHF : http://www.wfxadvisor.com/wmo/1923may/wmo_usdchf.pdf

- USDJPY : http://www.wfxadvisor.com/wmo/1923may/wmo_usdjpy.pdf




Any question ? Visit us at http://www.wfxadvisor.com or feel free to contact us anytime.



Best Regards,

David G.
WXFAdvisor CEO & Head Trader

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Multi TimeFrame Market Outlook: EURUSD

Tue, May 13 2008, 18:05 GMT
by David Gaudre

WFXAdvisor


Weekly Outlook :

EURUSD Weekly Chart


Last rejection from 1.60 has been effective and the bias still consolidative on weekly chart. Expected trading range for coming weeks extends from 1.5190 to 1.5675.

To the upside, last week high at 1.5590 is the first resistance to come. A break above will send prices towards 1.5675 main resistance (1st objective). Price reaction has to be monitored here, as a sustained break of 1.5675 main resistance will allow price to test 1.5810 minor resistance (2nd objective). A weekly close above 1.5675 is needed to expect further uptrend towards historical highs.

To the downside, 23.6% fib. level (of rise from 1.3350 to 1.5906) at 1.5310 is the main support to watch.  Price rejection on this sdupport is likely, but in case of a break lower, price may easily test old blue channel trendline at 1.5180 (1st objective). If this support does not reject prices, we may see a test of 1.5050 trendline next weeks (2nd objective).


Daily Outlook :


EURUSD Daily Chart


Price still consolidate late-April fall. Expected trading range for coming days extends from 1.5350 to 1.5620.

To the upside, 1.5560 appears as an immediate resistance (1st objective). A daily close above this level is needed to see price testing 1.5690 minor resistance (2nd objective).


To the downside, while price is below 1.5560, bias remain neutral to negative. Trading below 1.5460 will confirm the immediate bearish sentiment for a test of 1.5390 (1st objective). No rebound on this level will allow price to fall further towards 1.5350 (2nd objective), ahead of 1.5280 last week low.



4-Hours Outlook :


EURUSD 4-Hours Chart


Last week price action sees up/down swings in a consolidation range extending from 1.5290 ti 1.5590.  These levels have to be monitored carefully, as a break higher or lower will confirm trend has resumed.

To the upside, 1.5520/90 resistance zone, once cleared, will allow prices to test 1.5620 & 1.5695 resistances.

To the downside, bias remain consolidative while price is above 1.5380, but a break lower will argue in favor of a downside continuation towards 1.5290. If no rejection there, 1.5230 LT support may be tested later this week.

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Multi TimeFrame Market Outlook: EURUSD

Mon, May 5 2008, 14:51 GMT
by David Gaudre

WFXAdvisor


Weekly :

EURUSD Weekly Chart

Last rejection from 1.60 has been effective and the bias turns consolidative on weekly chart. Expected trading range for coming weeks extends from 1.5180 to 1.5675.

To the upside, price may test immediate resistances at 1.5510 & 1.5610, but only a Euro above 1.5675 (1st objective) will turn the bias neutral to positive towards 1.5800/20 (2nd objective).

To the downside,  the 1.5310/50 support zone is an important level to monitor. Any break below this support will allow price to test old blue channel high at 1.5160 (1st objective). Below, 38.2% fib. retracement of rise from 1.3350 to 1.5910 at 1.4940 (2nd objective) may block and reject prices first.

Daily :

EURUSD Daily Chart

Rising wedge break last week confirm the consolidation we’ve awaited. Expected trading range for coming days extends from 1.5310 to 1.5560.

To the upside, immediate resistance at 1.55 has to be outperformed in order to test 23.6% fib. retracement of rise from 1.4450 to 1.59 at 1.5560 (1st objective). Above here, broken trendline at 1.5640 (2nd objective) is now resistance and only a daily close above this level will argue in favor of uptrend continuation.

To the downside, while price is below 1.5560,bias remain neutral to negative. 1.5350 (1st objective) is the main support to come. A break below means MT top is in place, and further downside move towards 1.5175 (2nd objective) may be seen during next days/weeks.

4-Hours :


EURUSD 4-Hours Chart


Price spent most of last week with a downside bias since rising channel has been broken, and is now trading in a falling channel. While above 1.5360/80, we consider last days price action as a corrective move from 1.60 top.

To the upside, if 1.5360/80 hold & reject price, we may see an attempt higher towards 1.5520 (1st objective) and 1.5615. Only above there we’ll consider immediate uptrend has resumed for a test of 1.5690 main resistance.

To the downside, a break of 1.5360 will turn the bias negative towards 1.5210/40 support zone (1st objective) and 1.5040/60 later. In any case, a break of 1.5350 means a larger correction is coming.

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Multi TimeFrame Market Outlook: EURUSD

Tue, Apr 22 2008, 12:54 GMT
by David Gaudre

WFXAdvisor


Weekly Outlook :

EURUSD Weekly Chart 

The fourth attempt above 1.59 has finnaly been effective, and even if short-lived, last week closed on the positive side.

Expected trading range for coming weeks extends from 1.5670 to 1.6210.

To the upside, 1.5900/20 main resistance has to be broken in order to validate uptrend continuation. If so, 1.6210 (1st objective) may be reached during the week. Above, 123.6% FE at 1.6410 (2nd objective) may be a strong resistance where price reaction has to be monitored.

To the downside, 1.5670 immediate support act as a pivot point. A break below will allow price to test last week low at 1.5500/20 (1st objective). Below, broken channel line at 1.5400/20 (2nd objective) may reject prices.

Daily Outlook :

 EURUSD Daily Chart

Since 1.5670 main support rejected prices, upside consolidation continues and price is still trapped in a symetric triangle.

Expected trading range for coming days extends from 1.5760 to 1.6090.

To the upside, resistance formed by 161.8% FE and triangle high at 1.5945 is a strong resistance to watch. A break above this level will target 1.5980 top resistance zone first (1st objective), but only a daily close above this level will allow price to test the 1.61 handle (2nd objective).

To the downside, a strong and large support zone extends from 1.5710 to 1.5790 (1st objective). A break and daily close below this level argue in favor of a deeper consolidation towards 1.5550 initially (2nd objective).

4-Hours Outlook :

EURUSD 4-Hours Chart

Price spent most of last week swinging in a upward wedge. Still inside, limts of this channel has to be monitored in order to determine next move.

To the upside, 1.5960/90 appears once again as an interesting resistance zone. A break above will target  123.6% FE at 1.6070 (1st objective). If broken to the upside, price may easily test the 1.62 handle (2nd objective). Once there, any break higher targets weekly objectives.

To the downside, 1.5740 wedge low and fib. retracement are immediate supports to watch.  A break lower turns the outlook neutral and a test of 1.5620 is likely (1st objective). If no rebound, price may fall rapidly towards 1.5520 first (2nd objective), ahead of 1.5480 main support.

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Multi TimeFrame Market Outlook: EURUSD

Tue, Mar 11 2008, 11:11 GMT
by David Gaudre

WFXAdvisor


EUR / USD Technical Picture / Pattern Analysis

Weekly:
Traingle breakout has been effective and last week close occurred above channel high.. Expected trading range for coming weeks extends from 1.5050 to 1.5620. To the upside, if channel breakout is valid, we may see a rebound on the 100% FE at 1.5260 before another rise towards 1.5460 first (1st objective), ahead of 138.2% FE at 1.5620 (2nd objective). To the downside, a pullback below 1.5260 means a deeper correction is likely. Last week low at 1.5140 is a good support (1st objective), ahead of 1.4965 breakout levels (2nd objective).

Daily:
Break above daily channel high sees a rise towards Fibnacci projection. Prices now consolidate. Expected trading range for coming days extends from 1.5430 to 1.5240. To the upside, a strong resistance zone extends from 1.5440 to 1.5475, where several Fib. extensions & projections coming from recent rises are. This resistance zone is our 1st objective. Above, only channel high in the 1.5500/20 zone may block prices ahead of weekly levels (2nd objective). To the downside, Daily open below 138.2% FE encourages a pullback towards 1.5250/80 support zone (1st objective). If no rebound occurs on these levels, we may see a deeper pullback towards 100% FE’s support zone extending from 1.5190 to 1.5205 (2nd objective).

4-Hours:
Price is trading in a raising channel (blue) and has been rejected by channel top. Correction already in place. To the upside, we must see a rebound on previous top in the 1.5275/85 zone, before another rise towards channel high above 1.5460 ( main upside objective), ahead of daily objectives. If no rebound, price will correct lower towards second support zone at 1.5205/30 (1st downside objective). A break below this level will target 1.5160 first, ahead of 1.5090 cluster resistance (2nd downside objective). 1.5230 remain the most interesting level to monitor for a rebound..or a break lower..


EUR / USD - WFXA Models Analysis

Daily indicators status (at time of writing):

  • - Long-term moving averages positive / short-term moving averages positive. (POSITIVE)
  • - Slow MACD positive / Fast MACD positive, overbought (NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE)
  • - Slow Stochastic positive, overbought / Fast stochastic fluttering (NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE)
  • - Momentum, RSI, CCI & W%R positive, but CCI divergences appeared. (POSITIVE)
  • - SAR positive, Bollinger Bands widening. (POSITIVE)

Technical side: After rally towards channel high, 3 days have been necessary for a break higher. Price now consolidate above channel high. The obvious question is “will the price rebound on channel or break lower?” 1.5275 – 1.53 zone has to be monitored carefully. Daily oscillators are a bite overbought, and a strong impulse lower below channel high may be atrigger for a corrective selling towards daily congestion zone extending from 1.5170 to 1.5220. If price can’t stabilize at these levels, 123.6% FE from previous rise at 1.5110 will be our main downside target. However, if a rebound on channel high is effective, a 2nd test of last Friday top at 1.5465 is likely..

Fundamental side: Not much datas are expected from Euro-Zone this week, excepted ZEW survey and CPI later this week. Both releases may affect short-term trading, but we do not expect a strong deviation from consensus, and we think this week price action will be technically driven. However, don’t forget Euro is at “dangerous levels”.. Any official intervention or BCE officals speak about expensive euro related problems may generate short-term selling too. Here in Europe, many investors, industrials and politics starts to critisize Trichet attitude..

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