Mon, Sep 22 2008, 13:55 GMT
by David Gaudre
Published on Mon, Sep 22 2008, 13:55 GMT
Mon, Aug 25 2008, 15:17 GMT
by David Gaudre
Published on Mon, Aug 25 2008, 15:17 GMT
Mon, Aug 11 2008, 14:21 GMT
by David Gaudre
Weekly :
Last week sees break of main consolidation triangle..to
reach 2007 highs support. Expected trading range for coming weeks extends from
1.4760 to 1.5310.
To the upside, as long as above 1.4930 weekly support
(2007 highs), price attempt a recovery towards 1.5140 initially (1st
objective). If that level does not reject prices, continued corrective upmove
towards 1.5305 cluster resistance can be seen (2nd objective).
However, only a pullback above 1.55 will mean correction is over.
To the downside, fall below 1.4930 weekly support opens the door for a test of 1.4760 minor support (1st objective). Fall and/or weekly close below that level argue in favor of downside continuation towards 50% fib. retracement (of rise from 1.3350 to 1.5915) at 1.4640 (2nd objective). Rebound Is awaited here, but if not, fall towards multi-year trendline at 1.4450 is expected.
Daily :
Last days sees a violent fall below the 1.50 level.
Expected trading range for cming days extends from 1.4830 to 1.5170.
To the
upside, Monday opened below multi-month trendline and tries a pullback
above it. If price can clear 1.5020/60 resistance zone, corrective move towards
1.5160 may be seen (1st objective). If 1.5160 does not reject
prices, continued correction towards 1.5250 – 1.5310 cluster resistance zone
may be seen (2nd objective).
To the downside, Monday opened on 138.2FE witch is acting as daily support until now. Break below this one will let price fall towards 1.4790 – 1.4850 cluster support zone (1st objective). A rebound is expected here, but continued fall below 1.48 will damper this expectation for a test of the 1.46 handle later (2nd objective).
4-Hours :
Published on Mon, Aug 11 2008, 14:21 GMT
Mon, Jul 21 2008, 14:30 GMT
by David Gaudre
Weekly :
Last week sees a test of main channel trendline.. rejection
has been immediate, but price still above triangle.. Expected trading range for
coming weeks extends from 1.5740 to 1.6110.
To the upside, immediate
resistance at 1.59 act as a weekly pivot. Break above is needed to target
channel high at 1.6025 (1st objective). If this level does not
reject price, we may see a continued rise towards 138.2% FE at 1.6116 (2nd
objective). In any case, a daily close above 1.60 handle will be a strong buy
signal.
To the downside, triangle low at 1.5730/50 act as a primary support. If reached, a rebound on this level is highly possible. However, if price fall below this 1.5730/50 support, fall towards 1.5670 will follow (1st objective). No rejection here will let prices fall towards triangle lows at 1.55 (2nd objective).
Daily :
Last days sees a correction from 1.60 top.. still inside a
raising wedge.. Expected trading range for coming days entends from 1.5860 to
1.6030.
To the upside, 1.5785 ealier resistance is now support. While
above, thie bias remain positive. Wedge high at 1.5960 (1st
objective) has to be outperformed to valid trend continuation. Then, main
resistance in the 1.6010/40 area (2nd objective) is the main level
to watch Above there, -23.6% fib. projection put next target at 1.6195.
To the downside, break below 1.5820/40 minor support turns the bias neutral, and a test of 1.5775/85 main support may follow (1st objective). Break lower below this level turns the bias negative for a test of the 1.5650/90 cluster support. (2nd objective). Break below 1.5650 is negative.
4-Hours :
Last week sees downward, volatile, and spiked consolidation. Early trading hours this week shows a break higher of last consolidation triangle.Published on Mon, Jul 21 2008, 14:30 GMT
Mon, Jul 7 2008, 14:52 GMT
by David Gaudre
Attempt above triangle towards 1.59 rejected..Eur still in
corrective mode.. Expected trading range for coming weeks extends from 1.5485
to 1.6010.
To the upside, the consolidation in still the upper-side of
the triangle, and while above 1.5580, a first test towards triangle high at
1.5760 can’t be ruled out (1st objective). If 1.5760 resistance is
outperformed, price may then rallies towards 1.59 last week top (2nd
objective). A break above this level targets 1.60 main channel high.
To the downside, minor support at 1.5580 act as pivot point. A break below this level will allow price to test lower supports in the 1.5450/90 zone (1st objective). If no rebound here, a deeper fall towards multi-months trendline at 1.5390 will follow (2nd objective).
Published on Mon, Jul 7 2008, 14:52 GMT
Mon, Jun 30 2008, 14:46 GMT
by David Gaudre
Weekly :
Daily :
Falling wedge consolidation is over, but EUR still in mai
consolidation range. Expected trading range for coming days extends from 1.5655
to 1.5940.
To the upside, a daily close above 1.5820 is needed to expect
an upside break of the range. Then, a rise towards 1.59 minor resistance is
likely (1st objective). Above there, 138.2% FE at 1.5947 has to be
outperformed in order to expect a test of historical highs reisitance at 1.6010
(2nd objective).
To the downside, first support zone comes at 1.5990 – 1.5705 (1st objective). If this level can’t hold & reject price to the upside, we may see a deeper correction towards 1.5620 triangle low (2nd objective). Below there, another cluster support at 1.5550/75 may hold & reject prices. Break below this level is negative.
4-Hours :
Published on Mon, Jun 30 2008, 14:46 GMT
Tue, Jun 17 2008, 12:31 GMT
by David Gaudre
Rejection from weekly consolidation triangle high has been
effective as last week closed below triangle low.. Expected trading range for
coming weeks extends from 1.5260 to 1.5770.
To the upside, 1.5485 immediate
resistance has to be outperformed in order to allow prices to test main
resistance zone at 1.5675 (1st objective). A break above there targets
1-month resistance zone at 1.5770 (2Nd objective). A weekly close
above this level is needed to consider current consolidation has ended.
To the downside, while above 1.5305 the bias remain neutral, but if this crucial support is broken, we may see a bearish impulse towards 1.5250 minor support initially (1st objective). Below, if 1.5140 minor support can’t hold and reject prices, there’re not much supports until 1.4940 (2nd objective).
To the upside,
main resistance at 1.5560 has to be cleared and a daily close above that level
is needed to expect positive move in the upper side of the range towards 1.5560
initially (1st objective) and then towards 1.5790 main resistance (2nd
objective). A break & daily close above 1.5790 is needed to turn the
outlook positive towards 1.59 / 1.60 zone.
To the downside, a break below 1.5405 trendline targets 1.5340 and then 1.5280 (1st objective). If no rejection here, break of 1.5280 will turn the bias negative for a test of 1.5160/80 wedge low (2nd objective).
Published on Tue, Jun 17 2008, 12:31 GMT
Mon, Jun 9 2008, 14:10 GMT
by David Gaudre
Published on Mon, Jun 9 2008, 14:10 GMT
Mon, May 26 2008, 16:34 GMT
by David Gaudre
Published on Mon, May 26 2008, 16:34 GMT
Tue, May 20 2008, 10:11 GMT
by David Gaudre
Published on Tue, May 20 2008, 10:11 GMT
Tue, May 13 2008, 18:05 GMT
by David Gaudre
Price still consolidate late-April fall. Expected trading
range for coming days extends from 1.5350 to 1.5620.
To the upside, 1.5560
appears as an immediate resistance (1st objective). A daily close
above this level is needed to see price testing 1.5690 minor resistance (2nd
objective).
To the downside, while price is below 1.5560, bias remain neutral
to negative. Trading below 1.5460 will confirm the immediate bearish sentiment
for a test of 1.5390 (1st objective). No rebound on this level will
allow price to fall further towards 1.5350 (2nd objective), ahead of
1.5280 last week low.
Published on Tue, May 13 2008, 18:05 GMT
Mon, May 5 2008, 14:51 GMT
by David Gaudre
Weekly :
Last rejection from 1.60 has been effective and the
bias turns consolidative on weekly chart. Expected trading range for coming
weeks extends from 1.5180 to 1.5675.
To the upside, price may test immediate resistances at 1.5510 & 1.5610, but only a Euro above 1.5675 (1st objective) will turn the bias neutral to positive towards 1.5800/20 (2nd objective).
To the downside, the 1.5310/50 support zone is an important level to monitor. Any break below this support will allow price to test old blue channel high at 1.5160 (1st objective). Below, 38.2% fib. retracement of rise from 1.3350 to 1.5910 at 1.4940 (2nd objective) may block and reject prices first.
Daily :
Rising wedge break last week confirm the consolidation
we’ve awaited. Expected trading range for coming days extends from 1.5310 to
1.5560.
To the upside, immediate resistance at 1.55 has to be outperformed in
order to test 23.6% fib. retracement of rise from 1.4450 to 1.59 at 1.5560 (1st
objective). Above here, broken trendline at 1.5640 (2nd objective)
is now resistance and only a daily close above this level will argue in favor of
uptrend continuation.
To the downside, while price is below 1.5560,bias remain neutral to negative. 1.5350 (1st objective) is the main support to come. A break below means MT top is in place, and further downside move towards 1.5175 (2nd objective) may be seen during next days/weeks.
4-Hours :
Published on Mon, May 5 2008, 14:51 GMT
Tue, Apr 22 2008, 12:54 GMT
by David Gaudre
Weekly Outlook :
The fourth attempt above 1.59 has finnaly been effective, and even if short-lived, last week closed on the positive side.
Expected trading range for coming weeks extends from 1.5670 to 1.6210.
To the upside, 1.5900/20 main resistance has to be broken in order to validate uptrend continuation. If so, 1.6210 (1st objective) may be reached during the week. Above, 123.6% FE at 1.6410 (2nd objective) may be a strong resistance where price reaction has to be monitored.
To the downside, 1.5670 immediate support act as a pivot point. A break below will allow price to test last week low at 1.5500/20 (1st objective). Below, broken channel line at 1.5400/20 (2nd objective) may reject prices.
Daily Outlook :
Since 1.5670 main support rejected prices, upside consolidation continues and price is still trapped in a symetric triangle.
Expected trading range for coming days extends from 1.5760 to 1.6090.
To the upside, resistance formed by 161.8% FE and triangle high at 1.5945 is a strong resistance to watch. A break above this level will target 1.5980 top resistance zone first (1st objective), but only a daily close above this level will allow price to test the 1.61 handle (2nd objective).
To the downside, a strong and large support zone extends from 1.5710 to 1.5790 (1st objective). A break and daily close below this level argue in favor of a deeper consolidation towards 1.5550 initially (2nd objective).
4-Hours Outlook :
Price spent most of last week swinging in a upward wedge. Still inside, limts of this channel has to be monitored in order to determine next move.
To the upside, 1.5960/90 appears once again as an interesting resistance zone. A break above will target 123.6% FE at 1.6070 (1st objective). If broken to the upside, price may easily test the 1.62 handle (2nd objective). Once there, any break higher targets weekly objectives.
To the downside, 1.5740 wedge low and fib. retracement are immediate supports to watch. A break lower turns the outlook neutral and a test of 1.5620 is likely (1st objective). If no rebound, price may fall rapidly towards 1.5520 first (2nd objective), ahead of 1.5480 main support.
Published on Tue, Apr 22 2008, 12:54 GMT
Tue, Mar 11 2008, 11:11 GMT
by David Gaudre
Weekly:
Traingle breakout has been effective and last week close occurred above channel high.. Expected trading range for coming weeks extends from 1.5050 to 1.5620. To the upside, if channel breakout is valid, we may see a rebound on the 100% FE at 1.5260 before another rise towards 1.5460 first (1st objective), ahead of 138.2% FE at 1.5620 (2nd objective). To the downside, a pullback below 1.5260 means a deeper correction is likely. Last week low at 1.5140 is a good support (1st objective), ahead of 1.4965 breakout levels (2nd objective).
Daily:
Break above daily channel high sees a rise towards Fibnacci projection. Prices now consolidate. Expected trading range for coming days extends from 1.5430 to 1.5240. To the upside, a strong resistance zone extends from 1.5440 to 1.5475, where several Fib. extensions & projections coming from recent rises are. This resistance zone is our 1st objective. Above, only channel high in the 1.5500/20 zone may block prices ahead of weekly levels (2nd objective). To the downside, Daily open below 138.2% FE encourages a pullback towards 1.5250/80 support zone (1st objective). If no rebound occurs on these levels, we may see a deeper pullback towards 100% FE’s support zone extending from 1.5190 to 1.5205 (2nd objective).
4-Hours:
Price is trading in a raising channel (blue) and has been rejected by channel top. Correction already in place. To the upside, we must see a rebound on previous top in the 1.5275/85 zone, before another rise towards channel high above 1.5460 ( main upside objective), ahead of daily objectives. If no rebound, price will correct lower towards second support zone at 1.5205/30 (1st downside objective). A break below this level will target 1.5160 first, ahead of 1.5090 cluster resistance (2nd downside objective). 1.5230 remain the most interesting level to monitor for a rebound..or a break lower..
Daily indicators status (at time of writing):
Technical side: After rally towards channel high, 3 days have been necessary for a break higher. Price now consolidate above channel high. The obvious question is “will the price rebound on channel or break lower?” 1.5275 – 1.53 zone has to be monitored carefully. Daily oscillators are a bite overbought, and a strong impulse lower below channel high may be atrigger for a corrective selling towards daily congestion zone extending from 1.5170 to 1.5220. If price can’t stabilize at these levels, 123.6% FE from previous rise at 1.5110 will be our main downside target. However, if a rebound on channel high is effective, a 2nd test of last Friday top at 1.5465 is likely..
Fundamental side: Not much datas are expected from Euro-Zone this week, excepted ZEW survey and CPI later this week. Both releases may affect short-term trading, but we do not expect a strong deviation from consensus, and we think this week price action will be technically driven. However, don’t forget Euro is at “dangerous levels”.. Any official intervention or BCE officals speak about expensive euro related problems may generate short-term selling too. Here in Europe, many investors, industrials and politics starts to critisize Trichet attitude..
Published on Tue, Mar 11 2008, 11:11 GMT
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