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Euro: Trading within the 1.5600 to 1.5760 range for the whole week so far

Thu, Jul 10 2008, 11:37 GMT
by Per-Erik Karlsson

Avantage Financial GMBH

Euro

Trading within the 1.5600 to 1.5760 range for the whole week so far. The key support remains 1.5600. A clear break above this 1.5772 level opens for another move towards the 1.5909 (Thursday’s high). I expect lower levels as long as that 1.5772 level is not taken out, which is basically a 20 pips extension of Monday’s high.

Support: 1.5600 (key level), 1.5489 (rising support), 1.5300 (key level)

Resistance: 1.5731 (falling resistance), 1.5751 (Monday’s high), 1.5809 (former rising support), 1.5909 (Thursday’s high), 1.6018 (all time high)

240 min – Broke the interim rising support Friday (1.5700). Interim rising support at 1.5670 this morning.

Cable

Key resistance remains 2.0024 that needs to be taken out to open for a test of 2.0390. Rising support at 1.9776 was taken out Monday, which opens for a test of the key 1.9350-1.9400 support area as long as it stays below the 1.9846 resistance. Took out the falling trend line on the 120 min chart yesterday, but still made a lower high, which signals weakness. But have to take out 1.9650 support near term to keep the bearish momentum going. Watch out for the BOE rate decision today.

Support: 1.9647 (Monday’s low), 1.9580 (23/6 low), 1.9471 (key rising support), 1.9337 (key Jan low), 1.9310

Resistance: 1.9850 (4/7 high), 2.0005 (1/7 high), 2.0024 (21/4-08 high), 2.0395 (14/3 high)

120 min – Took out the Interim falling resistance at 1.9810 yesterday, but was not able to move above the 1.9850 resistance and made a lower high, which is signal of weakness. However still have to take out the 1.9650 reaction low to accelerate downside.

USDCHF

Same scenario as yesterday: Interesting to note that the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from 08 low (0.9647) to the May 08 high (1.0623) is actually at 1.0135, where it bounced off again on Thursday last week. Also interim underlying support comes in at 1.01 level, so it respected this support. This now opens for a test of overhead resistance at 1.0441 near term as long as the 1.0100 support holds.

Support: 1.0135 (50% Fibonacci of rally from 08 low to 08 high), 1.0100 (underlying support), 0.9940, 0.9647 (all time low)

Resistance: 1.0441 (overhead resistance), 1.023 (May 08 high), 1.0728 (January 08 low)

USDJPY

The key resistance level remains 108.50 (overhead resistance) with minor resistance at the 200 day moving average at 107.54 today. Topped out towards that 200 day moving once again yesterday and dropped down and tested the risings support. Daily range is 106.69 (interim rising support) to 107.54 (200 day moving average). Break outs 20 pips above and below range.

Support: 106.69 (rising support), 106.24 (this week’s low), 104.99 (30/6 reaction low)

Resistance: 107.54 (200 day moving avg.) 108.50 (overhead resistance)

EURJPY

Key resistance remains the 170.00 level. Got up to 169.44 last week, but failed on the 1st approach. Technically bullish momentum intact above rising support at 166.61 today. So it can pull back towards this trend line and still retain the bullish momentum.

Support: 167.58 (interim rising support), 166.61 (rising support), 164.90 (break out level)

Resistance: 168.85 (interim falling res), 169.44 (all time high), 170.00 (psychological resistance)

USDCAD

Took out that Interim rising support at 1.0135 yesterday, which opens for a test of the key rising support line from the 07 lows, coming in at 0.9980 today, about the same level where the 200 day moving average is at the moment (0.9990). Have overhead resistance at 1.0282. To see a clean break out higher it has to clear the 1.04 level.

Support: 1.0074 (100 day moving average), 0.9990 (200 day moving average), 0.9980 (rising support from Nov07 low)

Resistance: 1.0282 (overhead res), 1.0378 (key level), 1.0400(former key support.)

EURGBP

Same outlook as yesterday: Trading inside an apex with support at 0.7896 and resistance at 0.7997 today. As long as the 0.7896 support holds I expect to see a test towards the overhead resistance (0.7994) near term.

Support: 0.7896 (rising sup), 0.7612 (former high), 0.7597(key level)

Resistance: 0.7994 (interim falling resistance), 0.8097 (high)

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Published on  Thu, Jul 10 2008, 12:07 GMT