日本語
Español
中文
Русский
- New York 00:27
- London 05:27
- Barcelona 06:27
- Tokyo 14:27
- Sydney 16:27
EUR/USD Briefing
This report has been deactivated
0
0
Fundamentals continue to be the main determinant on trend setting
Tue, Aug 26 2008, 07:36 GMT
by Nexum Team
EUR/USD managed to remain below 1.4800 and it now remains on the range between 1.4600-1.5100. This week we get a load of releases that will clear up the view and allow us to look beyond the current situation; this will help us determine 'if-and-when' Euro might begin to recover lost territory and head up back over 1.50 or if the USD will continue its long time anticipated correction and head back below 1.45. Keep an eye to key releases during the week. (specially FOMC minutes).
We have a load of releases during the week, to make it simpler we're going to mention those which are the most important, those which you HAVE to keep an eye on so that you don't loose the notion of what is going on and where the pair is heading. On Monday we get Existing Home Sales and a bunch of releases including home prices, this will be important due to the relevance on the housing crisis in the US economy. Tuesday brings German GDP and US Consumer Confidence, they both help the USD as GDP reads lower for Germany and Consumer Confidence begins to spike once again for U.S.A.. However this day we have the most important release of the week, FOMC minutes; here we will see what central bankers were thinking and what the FED could do on the next few months to improve the situation with the economy. Wednesday will print the number for Durable Goods in the US, also a very important indicator of the economy improving or accelerating into a recession. Thursday we get German CPI but more importantly we will see US GDP. Finally on Friday we get Euro Zone CPI, it might print lower, so rate cut could begin to look a bit more possible and this could drive the pair even lower.
| Important Releases | Day/Session | Europe | US | Asia |
| Existing Home Sales | Monday | DOWN | UP | STABLE |
| FOMC, Consumer Confidence, GER. IFO | Tuesday | DOWN | DOWN | STABLE |
| Durable Goods | Wednesday | STABLE | UP | UP |
| US GDP, GER CPI | Thursday | DOWN | DOWN | UP |
| EZ CPI Unemployment | Friday | DOWN | DOWN | CLOSED |
HIGH: 1.4900 LOW: 1.4600 CLOSE: 1.4700
Published on Tue, Aug 26 2008, 07:36 GMT
0
0
Euro to Raise Interest Rates?
Tue, Jul 1 2008, 08:57 GMT
by Nexum Team
Will Euro keep climbing to new highs or have we seen the end of this bullish move?
--- This Monday we are seeing a renewed amount of “profit taking” from the Euro; just before a rate rise? This does not make sense at all…---
Euro has climbed to a 3 week high against the USD, towards 1.5835, but just for a few seconds folks… as profit taking took place shortly as the ECB CPI took over and showed us a higher increase in inflation, at 4% instead of the 3.9 that was expected. We can recall a 3.6% last month, causing Trichet to signal a rate rise on Thursdays meeting… well folks, today’s increase in CPI might just as well “confirmed” the rise will come in a few sessions from this morning… however Markets are experiencing something strange, as USD bulls have hit the streets! Euro has since dropped a modest rally towards 1.5735 (100-so pips below the highs). This will be a strange week indeed. And watch out for surprises such as a NON-RATE increase from the ECB, causing Euro to plummet and oil/Gold with it.
Oil has become the main focus of attention to markets everywhere, causing inflation panic around our globe. Since this weekend began, commodity speculators have begun transmitting the message that the bubble is about to burst! We do not agree with such expectations, however we do agree some profit taking is due to come soon enough. You see, investments without profit taking are really not investments at all, and there comes a time when profit is bound to occur. Last week we say OPEP’s leader suggest that Oil prices might peek at 150-170 x barrel. We sure hope he was joking folks, as this might trigger inflation everywhere and transportation concerns, adding to middle eastern pressures and war on the edge of explosion once again due to petrol controls…
Las week we mentioned that “In currency terms, Oil is driving the USD lower as it reaches new highs nearing 140 Usd/ Barrel. Some countries world wide are experiencing higher problems regarding inflation, some reaching 8-12%. It is commonly known that oil prices must be tackled in order to re-establish price stabilization and continuous growth.” Well friends, today we saw a $143 price x barrel, and it came down fast… however we did see it and were impressed that it had breached that psychological $140 barrier.
We believe that Euro has reached its top at 1.60, and that even though it might be reached again soon, it might not hold for long. If these news don’t get us there soon, then we can’t see a reason why it should break 1.60 again in 2008/2009. Basically what we are trying to say is; if we don’t get to 1.60 and break it on July, it might mean that 1.50 is on the cards soon enough… and we’ll go on a limb here and say 1.40 might as well be considered an option “sooner rather than latter”.
EUR/USD
This week we will focus on US Unemployment, as well as Europe’s rate announcement. If rates are kept unchanged at Thursdays meeting in Euro-Zone, a selling might occur on Euros behalf and new lows might be reached sooner rather than latter. If in fact Europe’s Rates are increased to 4.25%, then new highs might be reached, and even though we do not believe they might be broken, the new range pattern can evolve around this higher levels between 1.58-1.54.
EUR/USD seems to have found a resistance near the 1.5850 level… Stochastics are now pointing towards an overbought territory and CCI and MACD are both confirming this bearish pattern. Expect south side if Europe reveals a “no-interest-increase” this Thursday.
Our analysis indicates Short EUR/USD every time it reaches 1.5930
- • Take Profit 1:1.5840
- • Take Profit 2: 1.5790
Published on Tue, Jul 1 2008, 08:57 GMT
0
0
Will USD rally come to an end?
Tue, Jun 3 2008, 12:31 GMT
by Nexum Team
EUR/USD seems stable ahead of ECB
Central Banks take the stage
Better than expected news for the US triggered an extinction of the USD rally, now trying to remain below 1.5500. However, this looks as if it will break this trend and take the pair higher once again. The reduced flow of releases will increase the intention toward releases as Rate decisions by Europe and UK, appearances by central bankers and finally Non-Farm Payrolls.
Releases begin on Tuesday with Euro Zone GDP; this number will give us a further look into what is happening on that side of the pond. Today the International Monetary Fund (IMF) increased their prediction on EZ GDP and talked about how inflation will moderate as commodity prices fall. This sets the stage for ECB to say the same thing about their monetary stance, but Tuesday’s GDP announcement will be key to predict their speech later on the week. Wednesday we will see an appearance by Trichet later followed by Euro-Zone retail sales. Thursday is the most important day as we have ECB and BOE deciding on interest rates. They will probably leave them unchanged but the statement of ECB after the announcement will influence price action and the way the market will behave on the following weeks. Finally on Friday we get Non-Farm Payrolls, these release will be very important because lately we’ve been getting better than expected news from the US, if NFP reads better dollar bulls could rush in the market again but if it continues to read worse every month people will start talking about depression/recession once again.
We’re back at what we could call a technical comfort zone. We could name it this because we have the space to go either way before we touch any significant resistance. South side moves will tend to be harder every day due to the pair getting closer to supports but we still have space to move around. Lets focus on fundamentals as we get some quite important this week.
Published on Tue, Jun 3 2008, 12:31 GMT
0
0
Euro climbs on dovish FED
Wed, May 28 2008, 10:39 GMT
by Nexum Team
EUR/USD rises as US economy pauses
Releases support further rise of EUR/USD
We’re back close to 1.5800; however the market is hesitating about the possibility of seeing 1.60 again. Well this week will surely give us an idea if this is possible, with releases looking positive for Euro Zone (specially Germany) and not so good for the US (specially with consumers) EUR/USD seems to have the opportunity to climb on our charts and test historical heights.. However don’t forget there’s been a very important change since we last saw 1.60; the US is no longer cutting rates. This could be strong enough support to maintain the pair from reaching higher.
Fundamentals are packed this week. Euro Zone will get boosted by the printing of numbers for Germany almost every day of the week. The US has fewer releases but towards the end of the week we will get an eye at what consumers are doing and this could trigger further appreciation of the Euro. Monday will be pretty quiet due to Memorial Day long weekend; however Tuesday will begin with German GDP and US Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales. We expect these readings to get the movement started on the Euro bulls side. Wednesday we get German CPI, this release will be very important because if Germany continues to have inflationary concerns and its growth continues they will continue to argue that a rate hike is needed and possible. Later on Wednesday we get Euro Zone Current Account and US Durable Goods. Thursday will show us US GDP and an appearance by FED Chairman Ben Bernanke, both of these releases are important on the recession outlook, we will get an insight of where the economy is going. Friday will be the most important day for US Releases as we get personal consumption and personal spending, on this consumer induced recession the best way to get out of trouble is by boosting spending and consumption so these numbers will show us if the trend is going on the greenbacks side or if it will continue to hit the economy as we enter the 6th month of the year.
EUR/USD continues to trade in our channel, lets focus on sideways trading to get profits. Be careful as a break to the north of our graphs is not out of the picture; however remember we’re close to the roof so we need to have a plan before we jump into the action.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD remains on sideways trend, this gives us the opportunity to trade on a close range. However this week has the potential to break our channel and push the pair higher. Releases supporting the Euro and hitting the Greenback could remind us of the possibility of the pair breaking above 1.60. Let’s focus on releases and get profits along the way.
Published on Wed, May 28 2008, 10:39 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD continues in range
Tue, Apr 29 2008, 07:21 GMT
by Nexum Team
EUR/USD now getting closer to lower end of range
EUR/USD dip might not be over
USD is looking stronger as releases took the pair lower. After breaking above the 1.60 mark, we now see the pair almost 400 pips lower and looking to get below the 1.56 handle. If you listened to our recommendations last week, you should by now have banked great profits and now should be thinking on a buying opportunity. These are due to the fact that we’ve been speaking about a range in EUR/USD between 1.6000 and 1.5550. We are now getting closer to the lower end of our range, however it will be very important to be patient and get in the market when the time is right. Let’s wait and see if the pair will head higher again or if it will extend the dollar rally to lower prices.
In order to decide what to do, we will have to pay close attention to fundamentals. Tuesday will bring us German IFO and Consumer Confidence for the US. Wednesday will be very important as we expect a low CPI for Euro Zone, taking away the argument for a rate hike. Then we see Personal Consumption and GDP for the US; both of them are key and will be very important to predict how severe and prolonged is the recession coming our way. Finally we get the FOMC decision; we expect a 25 bps cut. The market had anticipated a 50 bps and now adapted it’s prediction to a quarter point. This is also weighting on the Euro as we see the Dollar extend the move lower. Thursday brings ISM and finally on Friday we get German Retail Sales and US Unemployment and Non Farm Payrolls. All of these releases are very important, we’ll need to focus and remember what each of them is trying to tell us. Some are meaningful due to their relevance with the recession the US is going to see on the next months. Other releases are important due to how they are related to the future of monetary policy on Europe and others will be key to determine what will happen to currencies during the week. Watch closely all of the releases mentioned and remember to be patient as the market WILL give us an opportunity to take advantage of the situation and bank some great profits.
EUR/USD
EUR/ USD continues to move in range, however we are now reaching the lower side of it. Lets get ready to get in the market with long positions. Remember to be patient as the dollar rally could extend to lower prices and you don’t want to be trapped chasing the market. Lets keep an eye on key releases so we can anticipate the pair’s turning point.
EUR/USD finally managed to break below the red line, now we’ll have to wait and see if it continues to move in range. Wait for key releases to see how the market reacts. EUR/USD is back in the channel and trying to break the floor.
Our analysis indicates LONG EUR/USD every time it reaches 1.5540
- • Take Profit 1:1.5650
- • Take Profit 2: 1.5770
Published on Tue, Apr 29 2008, 07:21 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD moves in range
Tue, Apr 22 2008, 07:39 GMT
by Nexum Team
“EUR/USD moves in range”
(EUR/USD seems to be waiting for stronger data )
-Volatility gives us the opportunity to obtain great profits -
EUR/USD is having volatile swings throughout the weeks. We’ve seen it trapped between 1.5970 and 1. 5600 for the past few weeks. However this is not a bad thing, if we manage to maintain our discipline and wait for significant moves to step in the market, we can get great profits out of this behavior. Let’s try and wait to see the pair get closer to 1.6000 to step in with short positions. The pair seems to be waiting for a realease that will set things straight and give us a clear view of where we’re heading. Well this release could be the US recovery or the Euro Zone stepping into bigger problems as both: higher inflation and low growth stay on the upbeat.
Lets focus on this week and stop thinking about factors that will shake the market someday; we begin on Tuesday with Existing Home Sales, which will continue to go down, and the rate decision by the BOC. We believe that the market has already anticipated a .50 cut by the BoC and that is why USD/CAD is now over parity. Wednesday will bring BoE minutes and this will be important to give us an outlook of how other central banks on the other side of the pond are reacting to low growth. Keep an eye on the sterling as the movements we see on this currency will be very similar to what will happen to the euro once they begin to cut their interest rate. Thursday begins to become more interesting as we get Euro Zone Current Account, German IFO and Durable Goods for the US, all of these releases point to a Dollar recovery however we will have ECB officials speaking at the time of the releases so it will be important to determine how the market is reacting to both these releases at the same time. Finally on Friday we get UK GDP and consumer confidence for the US.
EUR/USD
The current see saw movement on the pair gives us the opportunity to take advantage and get great profits. Discipline is the name of the game and you will need to follow your plan all the time in order to be successful on this type of behavior by the currencies. If you decide to go short or long be careful to wait until the price gets where you wanted to get in the market and don’t try to anticipate wider moves or you’ll risk getting trapped behind price action.
We can clearly see the pair moving within a range. Lets keep an eye on this movement to see if it will continue and watch for any indication of a breakout to any side.
Our analysis indicates Short EUR/USD every time it reaches 1.5870
- • Take Profit 1:1.5800
- • Take Profit 2: 1.5690
Published on Tue, Apr 22 2008, 07:39 GMT
0
0
Will G−7 members save the USD?
Tue, Apr 15 2008, 10:43 GMT
by Nexum Team
“Will G-7 members save the USD?”
(EUR/USD seems to have strength to continue high)
---The strong move on early London session show us the continuing strength of the Euro ---
On Sunday we saw EUR/USD begin to look as if this week will bring the USD correction. G7 seemed to helped the american currency and it began making the USD gain 150 pips against Euro and GBP, suddenly in early London session mayors took back what they had lost against the greenback and we’re now pretty much on Friday’s closing level. However currencies seem a bit more bullish than Friday and now with G7 as past news, it’s up to fundamentals to boost the pair towards 1.60 or to take it back near 1.5500.
Monday showed us stronger than expected retail sales for the US, this number has been boosted by high gasoline prices so taking that out of the formula we could get a neutral number. For Euro Zone we saw Industrial Production which also was higher than anticipated. Later on the day we will see Trichet speaking in New York, he’s not expected to say anything with high relevance for the currency market but any indication on collaboration to bring EUR/USD to lower, more comfortable levels might surely kick start a USD rally. On Tuesday be sure to keep an eye on the news, for EZ we have the ZEW Surveys for Germany and Euro Zone followed by important releases for the US, such as Empire Manufacturing and Tic Flows. On Wednesday we get CPI for economies on both sides of the pond, later on the day we will see appearances by FED officials speaking about US Outlook and Monetary Policy. Thursday will bring Euro Zone Trade Balance and Philadelphia Fed Index for the US. This week is filled with important releases so keep an eye on these ones so you don’t miss the volatility that is surely coming our way.
Technical analysis is showing the pair reaching the top. We’ve seen EUR/USD bounce back from current levels and dip 200-300 pips in a week. The situation right now is that it is not very certain that we will see this dip repeat, so keep an eye and if fundamentals are pointing south, don’t be fearful and get in the market to get great profits.
EUR/USD
HIGH: 1.5940
LOW: 1.5670
CLOSE: 1.5850
EUR/USD is becoming more and more volatile as it tries to break above 1.60. This week is packed with fundamentals on both sides of the pond, keep an eye on the most important ones and don’t be afraid to step into the market as volatility will give you the opportunity to get great profits.
The channel is proving to be stronger this time around, keep an eye on key releases to see if EUR/USD is able to break below the current support levels. If it does we could see it get near 1.55.
Our analysis indicates Short EUR/USD every time it reaches 1.5870
- Take Profit 1:1.5800
- Take Profit 2: 1.5690
Published on Tue, Apr 15 2008, 10:43 GMT
0
0
ECB and BOE take the stage
Tue, Apr 8 2008, 07:34 GMT
by Nexum Team
“ECB and BOE take the stage”
(Will we see concerns of stagflation in Trichet’s speech?)
---BOE might cut rates and ECB won’t, but what will they do about high inflation and low growth stacked together? ---
EUR/USD has not moved accordingly to the increasing releases pointing to an imminent US recession. Jobs reports worse than expected, Bernanke speaking very dovish and American economists stating their economy is already in a recession has not pushed the pair higher, neither the USD lower. However the pair has listened closely to increasing problems with Euro Zone increasing inflation and decreasing growth. This combination is the perfect storm that could get Euro Zone off their feet and down to the ground. Let’s wait and see if Trichet shows some of this anxiety on this week’s ECB meeting.
Monday is pretty quiet with a low flow of releases and EUR/USD in a “neutral/comfortable” level, however throughout the morning we got news that Martin Feldstein, head of economic bureau (they are the ones who can officially call a recession), said he believes the US has been falling into a recession since December or January. “I think the professional forecasters have been a little slow to come to the recognition that we’re in a recession,” he’s not trying to hide his thoughts, he’s speaking his mind and not afraid of how the market will react. However we see currencies ignored this as if they had already anticipated the US going into a recession. This has happened repeatedly in the past few weeks, it is as if bad news for the US are already anticipated in the price action and good news are always a surprise that can trigger a dollar rally. If this is so, the next days would be either pretty calm or dollar positive; we begin on Tuesday with consumer credit and the FOMC minutes. Then on Wednesday we will have to keep an eye on Trade Balance and Current Account for Germany, weak numbers here will confirm the increasing problems the EU is getting into. Later on Wednesday we get GDP for Euro Zone, slower growth and increasing inflation will harm their economy. Thursday brings BOE and ECB to the stage and although it is easy to anticipate that BOE will cut rates and ECB will maintain them unchanged, the real question is how much will BOE cut and what will Trichet tell us about growing problems in the region.
Technical analysis is falling back into place, as the pair has a few days without a rally to either side we are going to see how indicators begin to sort their way into showing us a trend. Keep an eye on how they react to movements throughout the week because were not far from a trend definition and it sure would be great if we are able to anticipate it.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD seems to be waiting for an indication to see if problems are worse in the US or in Euro Zone. While probable E-Z stagflation is definitely worse, US economist are calling the economy to be already in a recession. We’ve learned that politicians tend to call the official recession until they are already seeing signs of recovery; this is used to boost the sentiment and help the economy out of the puncture. Trichet will have to speak clearly and help investors regain confidence that the Euro Zone will not fall into stagflation (this is high inflation and low growth placed together). Keep an eye on releases this week, especially to Thursday’s appearance by central bankers.
It seems as the US is finding a stronger support. We see how EUR/USD is having trouble breaking above the current resistance and this could be the effect of both, technical and fundamental factors. All these together with psychological level of 1.60 near. MACD is now turning to over bought territory and marking a SHORT signal Stochastics continue to trend lower signaling a possible break further down. RSI shows signs of deterioration as well, marking a SHORT signal.
Our analysis indicates Short EUR/USD every time it reaches 1.5720
- • Take Profit 1:1.5670
- • Take Profit 2: 1.5570
Published on Tue, Apr 8 2008, 07:34 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD continues in range
Tue, Apr 1 2008, 07:17 GMT
by Nexum Team
“EUR/USD continues in range”
(Market waiting for stronger releases)
-EUR/USD seems to be waiting for a stronger indication of where it’s going -
EUR/USD continues to move in the 1.59-1.54 range, and it will continue to do so until something stronger happens. Euro bulls are now beginning to worry about how strong the Dollar correction could be. Bernanke could trigger the rally as central banks continue to consider to work together in order to aid the US economy and help credit crunch throughout the world.
Europe is now managing a growing concern, high inflation and low growth. Stagflation is much worse that what is happening in the US, and don’t forget that these US problems are very likely to jump the pond and affect Europe and UK as well. So, what will happen when Trichet notices that he’s heading full speed into a concrete wall? The answer is not very clear as stagflation is not an easy problem to solve… But lets get back to the currencies, EUR/USD will continue to move in range. It could go higher and try to reach 1.60/1.62. We believe it wont go much higher after that but lets wait for releases on both sides of the pond. The most important thing we’re waiting for is the analysis of how long will the US be in a recession and how strong will the housing and credit crisis be. Once we have a clear idea about these things, and as the US begins to recover from the current situation, we might as well see a very strong correction towards 1.4000 due to the problems the EZ will be facing at the time. But that is not just around the corner, for the moment lets focus on appearances by Bernanke and Trichet because they can announce at any time that they will work together to solve the financial crisis. Retail sales, Non Farm Payrolls and any inflationary indicator will also be very important in the next few days/weeks. Keep an eye on the ball.
Technicals don’t work very well when volatility is moving the pair 400 pips in 2 days and then getting it back without anything really happening. Indicators are falling out of place and we’ll have to wait to see them reorganize themselves and begin to show the real trend that is being set as we write this report. Lets wait for mayor releases and then we can see what our charts are telling us.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD continues to move in range. Traders are waiting for a clear indication of where central bankers are planning to take the pair. Keep an eye on appearances by both Bernanke and Trichet to get an peek into where we will be heading for 2008. This could be the highest we will see EUR/USD in a long time but it doesn’t mean that were heading south right now. Be patient and wait for a clear trend.
DAILY GRAPH
This week will define if we’re witnessing a double top and getting ready for a mayor south side correction, or if the upside trend will continue and take us higher than 1.6000.
Our analysis indicates Short EUR/USD every time it reaches 1.5870
- • Take Profit 1:1.5800
- • Take Profit 2: 1.5690
Published on Tue, Apr 1 2008, 07:17 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD recovering space to breathe
Tue, Mar 25 2008, 10:31 GMT
by Nexum Team
“EUR/USD recovering space to breathe”
(Quiet market after rollercoaster week)
-After reaching 1.5900 EUR/USD breaths lower and waits for data -
Last week EUR/USD reached a new all time high, no only that but it also got pretty close to 1.60. This price seems to have a very strong psychological resistance but it also represents where analysts all over the world consider that central banks will have to collaborate and intervene to aid the USD and help markets around the world.
This week we’re back below 1.5500, EUR/USD has breathing space and can go to either side depending on fundamentals. Thursday will show us consumer confidence for the US; these numbers will begin to grow in importance due to the significance of consumption in order to solve the current crisis. Wednesday brings Euro Zone Current Account; and Durable Goods and New Home Sales for the US. This release could help the USD move further positive on our graphs due to the latest information that USD housing seems to be getting better and EU will begin to have some problems. Thursday brings US GDP and finally on Friday we get Personal Consumption, Personal Spending and Personal Income. We have a week filled with fundamentals that can take us to lower 1.50xx or back to 1.5700, let’s remain focused and follow our plan.
Technicals are begging to point south on our charts, this is the result of the rapid correction we saw when the pair reached over 1.5900. Lets wait and see how indicators react to this week’s releases and then we can use them to predict changes in the trend or a continuation to higher prices.
These are our Daily Predictions
EUR/USD
EUR/USD is back down from its all time high. Now it has space to move both north and south of our graphs. Releases for this and the following weeks will be very important to determine the trend of the pair. Keep an eye on rate indicators such as CPI and growth.
DAILY GRAPH
EUR/USD is back below our red line, lets wait and see if it remains there. We could see it try to break into our green channel.
Our analysis indicates Short EUR/USD every time it reaches 1.5450
- • Take Profit 1:1.5400
- • Take Profit 2: 1.5325
Published on Tue, Mar 25 2008, 10:31 GMT
0
0
Inflation VS Growth
Tue, Mar 11 2008, 09:02 GMT
by Nexum Team
“Inflation VS Growth”
(ECB and FED seem to have different approaches)
---FOMC will meet next week, Inflation gets higher importance this week---
EUR/USD continued to push higher and higher
last week. We got to a record high of 1.5465, this is pretty close to the
psychological level of 1.5500. Profit taking and short entries is probably what
stoped the Euro from reaching it. No good news for US and no indication that
ECB will cut rates any time soon is keeping the EUR/USD over 1.5300. However
the market is anticipating a 75 bps cut next week by the FED or even a 100 bps
cut. This would be very aggressive and the CPI release at the end of this week
will give us a good glimpse to know if it will be possible to see a full point
cut next week.
Fundamental indicators will begin on Tuesday
with Trichet appearing and probably continue to talk about the importance of
Dollar strength and how they will continue to focus on inflation and then on
growth. We also get the Zew Survey both for Germany and Euro Zone, as well as
the Current Situation. All of these releases are expected weaker than previous
ones. This is no surprise due to the current global situation, where weakness
un the Euro Zone might continue to grow, and it will continue to pressure
central bankers into considering a rate cut for further meetings(which means a
return to USD normal levels). Thursday will show numbers for a weak Retail
Sales month in the US, this might probably give another chance for Euro Bulls
to push higher. Finally on Friday we get CPI for Euro Zone, expected to read
higher and thus confirm the expectations of the ECB that focusing first on
inflation is the best thing they can do. On the other side we get CPI for US as
well as core inflation, they are expected to read a bit lower or the same as
previous year, this will also confirm the posture of the Fed into cutting rates
to incentive growth and later worry about inflation. The question now is, which
is better for the Dollar, High inflation of Low inflation? High inflation would
keep some bank officials from voting further rate cuts; at least they would not
cut more than 50 bps next week. However if we get low inflation this would
signal that the Fed is actually doing things the right way, they would cut more
aggressively but this would also help them get out of the now imminent
recession. We’ll have to wait and see how the market reacts to releases.
The technical side is beginning to create a strong roof near the 1.55 level. This psicological level is triggering profit taking and short positions so we now believe that unless something substantial happens next week in the FOMC meeting, we will hardly see a price much over 1.5500. If we are getting to a extreme in the price action, we might as well begin to prepare ourselves for the ride to the other side, this would be the south side and EUR/USD surely has a lot of space to go south. Remain Focused and be patient.
EUR/USD
Market is waiting anxiously for any indication of how much will the Fed cut rates next week. CPI will give us a good look into what reasons could FOMC members have to act aggressively or act cautiously. EUR/USD is reaching a very strong top so expect any good news for the US, specially any sign that ECB could cut rates any time soon to trigger a sell off and get the pair below 1.5000.
Daily Graph
EUR/USD is back to record heights. Indicators are reaching overbought territories, be patient and remain focused as we could witness a strong correction in following weeks.
Our analysis indicates Short EUR/USD every time it reaches 1.5440
- Take Profit 1: 1.5350
- Take Profit 2: 1.5225
Published on Tue, Mar 11 2008, 09:02 GMT
0
0
ECB worried about expensive EURO
Tue, Mar 4 2008, 11:21 GMT
by Nexum Team
“ECB worried about expensive EURO”
(ECB and BOE will decide on rates)
---EUR/USD reaching new heights, how long will this continue?---
We begin the week with some officials of the
European Central Bank, speaking about their concerns of the high price of the
Euro. Trichet even said he was in favor of US officials, such as Treasury
Secretary Henry Paulson, wanting a strong USD. However we had some ECB
officials also stating that the price was not a worrying factor and that they
had to stick to controlling inflation. This week will be very interesting due
to the BOE and ECB meetings, we’re going to get a real view of their thoughts
and whether they are concerned or not with the current price action.
We begin the week with ISM for Euro Zone as
well as CPI on Monday. This was overshadowed due to the statements I talked
about in the beginning of this report. Tuesday we will get PPI and GDP for Euro
Zone, PPI is expected to read higher in the year to year view and GDP is
expected to be stable. Not much to look into these releases unless we see a big
move in PPI. Later on Tuesday Ben Bernanke will be speaking to regional
Bankers, it will be important to see if there is some already looking to save
themselves from bankruptcy. This will surely be important to the stock market
and to the general view of the US economy. Wednesday will bring Retail Sales
and the Beige Book, both of them will be very important. Retail Sales is
expected to read poorly and Beige Book will give us a look inside to what might
happen in the next FOMC meeting. Thursday is the most important day of the
week, ECB and BOE will be deciding interest rates. Both of them are expected to
maintain them unchanged. However it will give an opportunity to Trichet to take
the EUR/USD to a more comfortable level. We’ve seen him do it before and ew
believe that his comfortable level is clearly below 1.4900. Finally on Friday
we get Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment, both could be a negative hit to the US if they continue
to surprise to the downside.
Technical side continues to fall to second terms. Follow fundamentals to get your money. Technicals are shouting short due to the record levels we are reaching daily. Wait for indicators to fall back into place before you begin using technical analysis to set your entry and exit points.
EUR/USD
Keep an eye to ECB press conference after the rate decision. We’re clearly reaching levels that get ECB officials uncomfortable. We could see them step in and begin the USD correction into levels below 1.4900. Don’t jump to conclusions and anticipate this move because they could also move the other way and state that high euro is not a problem.
Daily Graph
EUR/USD is back to record heights. Indicators are reaching overbought territories
Our analysis indicates Short EUR/USD every time it reaches 1.5230
- Take Profit 1:1.5170
- Take Profit 2: 1.5090
Published on Tue, Mar 4 2008, 11:21 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD heading to crossroads
Tue, Feb 26 2008, 15:27 GMT
by Nexum Team
“Central Bankers to clarify trend”
(Appearances by both Bernanke and Trichet will clarify the situation)
---A Load of Releases is Heading in our Direction---
Last week we saw some releases indicate that inflation is beginning to grow throughout the world. The big difference is the current trend of the central banks. We have ECB saying they’re watching closely to prevent inflationary problems, this translates to no rate cuts for the moment, and on the other side we have the FED saying they are more worried about growth than inflation, this translates into further rate cuts and a growing problem in the future with inflation and maybe even stagflation. This situation sent EUR/USD back to 1.4850, which has been the roof during the last few months.
This week will be very important on the fundamental side of trading. We begin on Monday with the Existing Home Sales and an appearance by Trichet. This appearance could be very significant into a Dollar Rally during the week, WHY IS THAT? Well, the last two, and only two, times we’ve seen price action over 1.4900, Trichet has stated that a Euro that expensive is actually very harmful fur the European Economy. If he mentions something like that on Monday we will probably see EUR/USD head back below 1.4600 by mid week. Tuesday will bring PPI and Consumer Confidence for he US, both these numbers are well predicted so we don’t expect much of a surprise in there. However PPI is reading higher so it could influence Bernanke on how he speaks later along the week. Wednesday has Durable Goods and New Home Sales; however Bernanke speaks this same day so releases could be ignored until he speaks. Bernanke’s speech to Congress will be crutial because he will have to explain what the Fed is going to do to solve the growth problem without falling into a inflationary problem. We could see him talk about focusing on inflation a bit more and this would trigger a Dollar Rally. We could also se him ignore the inflation and continue to speak about saving the economy from resesion and continue with a 50 bsp rate cut on March. This would keep EUR/USD over 1.4800. Thursday is pretty much the same as Jobless Claims and GDP will be ignored as Bernanke continues to speak to congress. Finally on Friday we will get CPI for EZ and Core Inflation, they both read a bit higher so ECB still has excuses not to cut interest rate on their next meeting.
Technical side is shouting SHORT EUR/USD, we’ve seen a well marked channel between 1.4900 and 1.4300, were well at the top right now but wait until we hear from Central Bankers to see if this see saw movement will continue.
Daily Graph
EUR/USD is back reaching the roof of our channel. Both times we’ve seen it fall back was due to Trichet helping the USD. He speaks on Monday, Will he help the USD again?. If anything positive triggers the dollar bulls to step in, we’re going to see Euro Bulls taking profits and this is the perfect recipe to go Short on EUR/USD and get great profits.
Our analysis indicates Short EUR/USD every time it reaches 1.4840
- Take Profit 1:1.4760
- Take Profit 2: 1.4600
Published on Tue, Feb 26 2008, 15:27 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD heading to crossroads
Tue, Feb 19 2008, 08:44 GMT
by Nexum Team
“EUR/USD heading to crossroads”
(A bearish Bernanke sends the Dollar to weak levels)
---Will we see the pair bounce back south once again?---
Last week we saw the end of the Dollar rally as Ben Bernanke gave one more statement about risk aversion and the negative outlook for the upcoming months. This was enough to reinsure the market that the Fed will continue to lower interest rate in the upcoming FOMC meetings. We expect a 50 Bps cut in the next one. These events led the way for the EUR/USD to head back to 1.4700, however we are now trying to figure out if the pair will do the same as the last several times we’ve seen these prices. Will it bounce right back and fall under 1.4500 in less than a week? If it does we sure will take advantage and some great profits along the way. To figure this out it will be important to keep an eye on a few things during the week, here are some of them. Tuesdays BoJ minutes could give us an outlook on how Central Banks are looking at the global tendency to lower rates, this could be important to pressure ECB to at least consider a rate cut during 2008. Wednesday will be pretty similar as we get BoE minutes and the FED’s minutes as well. Both of them will give us a clear view into the next meeting. CPI and Housing Starts for the US will also be important on Wednesday, however they are expected to do pretty normal so don’t expect strong market movements as they are released. Thursday will bring Euro Zone Current Account which is expected weak and EUR/USD could begin to look south, at least below 1.4600.
The Technical side is beginning to look like a cycle. EUR/USD has been going up and down within the same range for a while now. It will be crucial to anticipate weather it will repeat this or not. If you get the wrong impression you would get behind the trend and end up either not earning easy money or loosing some because you got trapped chasing the market. Keep an eye on fundamentals and use technical analysis to get in at the best price possible.
EUR/USD
This week you should focus your attention into trying to find out if EUR/USD will continue to oscillate between the well marked barriers. If it will, you will be left with the task of deciding where to place your short position and how low to wait until you take profits.
Daily Graph
EUR/USD seems to be trapped inside the green channel, we expect this to continue for the rest of February so take advantage and get some profits.
Our analysis indicates Short EUR/USD every time it reaches 1.4740
- Take Profit 1:1.4650
- Take Profit 2: 1.4550
Published on Tue, Feb 19 2008, 08:44 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD ranged
Tue, Feb 12 2008, 11:19 GMT
by Nexum Team
“EUR/USD ranged”
(After ignoring releases last week, EUR/USD is back in the lower end of our channel)
---EUR/USD might pay more attention to Euro Zone data---
Last week we saw releases for the US economy worsen, however EUR/USD seemed to ignore everything and dived 300 pips. This week we have some relevant releases for Euro Zone, lets see if the pair will act accordingly to what is published or if it will continue to move without much fundamental support.
We begin the week with a load of releases for the UK, this will give us an outlook for the following rate decisions by the BoE, and this could strongly influence the ECB. On Tuesday we will receive the ZEW Surveys for Economic Sentiment and Current Situation; they all read negative and will probably have an effect on price action. Lets wait and see the actual number so we don’t get trapped in a surprise. These releases could take us to the expected weekly low of 1.4440. Wednesday will be pretty quiet with the only important release being retail sales; however this will be important on the Recession issue as we get some numbers on consumption in the US. Thursday will play an important role this week with Euro Zone GDP reading weak and Trade Balance for the US and Current Account for Euro Zone. Finally on Friday we will get the Euro Zone Trade Balance followed by the weak reading TICS. Look out for any anticipation to these releases because we can get to the weekly heights by Thursday as people buy the rumor sell the fact on this releases.
The Technical side is beginning to show us a trend of a wide ranged pair. We are seeing EUR/USD bounce between 1.4450 and 1.4750. This could continue for the rest of February or at least until something important happens. We saw the FED cut the rates by 1.25% in less than 2 weeks and that wasn’t enough to break 1.50 so we’re expecting the final move to be to the south side of our graphs and a rate cut by ECB could trigger a strong selling spree.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD seems to be ignoring fundamentals, at least it did last week when everything read negative in the US but the USD still managed to get 300 pips into its pocket. We’re in a wide range now and it will be here for a while. We believe that until something decisive happens in Europe or the US finally gets into recession, price action will be ranged between 1.4450 and 1.4750. This seems boring but it is actually a great opportunity to get enormous profits for our clients.
Daily Graph
EUR/USD seems to be trapped inside the green channel, we expect this to continue for the rest of February so take advantage and get some profits.
Our analysis indicates Long EUR/USD every time it reaches 1.4460
- • Take Profit 1:1.4550
- • Take Profit 2: 1.4650
Published on Tue, Feb 12 2008, 11:19 GMT
0
0
FOMC to decide on further Rate Cuts
Tue, Jan 29 2008, 10:02 GMT
by Nexum Team
“FOMC to decide on further Rate Cuts”
(After last weeks 75 bps cut, What will the Fed do?)
---FOMC takes central stage---
Last week was very impressive; we began with a
surprise 75 bps rate cut by the Fed. This took the market by surprise; however
traders reacted pretty well. We didn’t have the volatility we could’ve expected
from a significant rate cut. EUR/USD seems to be moving on medium and long term
trends again instead of the uncertain short term moves we had during the past
few months. This week we have a load of releases including the Fed’s scheduled meeting.
Tuesday will be the first important day, we
will receive data for current account on Euro Zone and Durable Gods and
Consumer Confidence for the US; we expect the effect of this releases to be
mixed and have a see saw movement during the day. Wednesday will bring the
release of the FOMC decision followed by a press conference by Ben Bernanke, we
will get a pretty good look into what is coming our way during this event. We
expect to see a rate cut, but the question remains will it be 25 bps, 50bps or
even 75bps. We believe 75 is not a possibility, 50 is already in the price
action but 25 is certainly possible so the surprise is to the downside and
could see a dollar rally if Bernanke speaks hawkish after the announcement. Wednesday
will also show figures for GDP and Core PCE, which could be decisive before the
FOMC’s decision. Thursday movements will be pretty much reactions to what
happens on Wednesday but don’t forget the release of Personal Spending. Finally
we get back to the old employment Fridays, we will get releases such as
Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Hourly Earnings, etc. which will give us
a great deal of information regarding the current employment situation.
The technical side is mixed. With the latest move to the north of our graphs, we have some pointing north and some pointing south. We will have to wait and see where the FOMC takes us during the week. After this release is back to basics, wait for indicators to fall into place then get your trigger finger ready.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD is beginning to listen to medium and long term trends. This will help us stop the uncertain moves created by speculators and news traders that act on the short term based on a single release and not the big picture. Lets wait for the FOMC to step into the market as anything can happen, we expect a rate cut and an aggressive talk by Bernanke, this will help US consumers recover some confidence on their economy and begin to solve the problem of a Consumer Induced Recession.
Daily Graph
Indicators are reaching tops and the channel is proving to be stronger than we thought so. We could see a dive in the week if the USD gets supported by its central bank.
Weekly Graph
The pair is finally having some respect for channels and technical indicators, lets hope this continues and speculators are pushed out of the market.
Our analysis indicates Short EUR/USD every time it reaches 1.4780
• Take Profit 1:1.4700
• Take Profit 2: 1.4630
Published on Tue, Jan 29 2008, 10:02 GMT
0
0
Will EUR/USD extend the fall?
Wed, Jan 23 2008, 11:11 GMT
by Nexum Team
Will EUR/USD extend the fall?
(We begin the week with sudden US strength, but how far can it go?)
---Lack of releases will make technical analysis more important---
We have been talking about a stronger USD for
quite a while now, and just this Friday, we had our annual meeting, where we
stated USD might actually begin its strenghtening almost immediatedly…
We ended last week with Bush releasing
his plan to expand growth in the US; investors were clearly disappointed as we
begin this week with strong declines in stock markets around the globe, oil
below 90 and the EUR/USD diving more than 170 pips in a day where the US is
closed due to holidays.
Monday should have been pretty quiet due to the
lack of fundamentals and the closed market in the US, however it is showing reactions of
last week’s announcement by US politicians. Tuesday will bring the BoJ rate
decision, they will probably maintain the rate unchanged but expect to hear
something about global stability due to the recent fall in their stock market. Tuesday
will also have Trichet speaking and he might as well do something to calm
investors. Wednesday will be important due to the release of the minutes of the
BoE, GDP for UK and industrial Production for Euro Zone, which will read pretty
weak and could continue to weaken the euro. Thursday will have appearances by
Trichet and Treasury Secretary Paulson, and German IFO; all of these releases
could help the USD extend the move; however, later that day we will receive
releases such as Jobless rate and New Home Sales that could even things up as
they will also read weak. Friday will be very calm on the fundamental side of
trading but don’t forget the possibility of a correction.
Fundamentals support
the idea of a further Dolar appreciation, important supports have been broken
and we now see the pair below the channel in different time frames. Indicators
are beginning to point north but this is the effect of a sudden move. Lets give
them some time to establish a trend and then listen to them because this week
is not very important in the fundamental side.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD is moving widely to the south of our charts, it seems that US negativity is now going to other countries. We have stock markets falling drastically, oil below 90 and the Euro falling rapidly. This could continue throughout the week but look out for dip buying because this trend could extend at least until the rate cut by the FED.
Daily Graph
Weekly Graph
The pair is well in the channel now, the floor is at 1.4340. A rupture of this channel could bring the pair below 1.4300 and further.
Our analysis indicates Short EUR/USD every time it reaches 1.4540
• Take Profit 1:1.4470
• Take Profit 2: 1.4380
Published on Wed, Jan 23 2008, 11:11 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Reaching tops once again
Tue, Jan 15 2008, 08:14 GMT
by Nexum Team
(EUR/USD is getting near its all time high as well as uncomfortable prices for Euro Zone)
Inflationary releases will run the market this week
EUR/USD reached 1.4900 on expectations that the FED will cut the rates by 50 bsp on next week’s announcement. This week se see several inflationary releases that will give us a sneak peak into next week’s meeting. We also get Beige Book so if you examine this week’s releases you’ll be pretty well set for the following week. But remember that the last time we were near these prices, Trichet began to speak about how having EUR/USD this high could impact Euro Zone exports and harm the economy. Price Action is high and could go higher, the important question is how much higher and our analysis keeps us thinking there is much more space to go lower than higher so a long position remains to risky at the moment.
Fundamentals remain our most important indicator of where the currencies are heading, on Tuesday we get the ZEW surveys, which are expected a bit weak. Later that day we get PPI and Retail Sales; both these releases will have a negative effect on the USD, as they are expected lower than previous months they are signaling desaceleartion and reminding of the possibility of a recession during 2008. Wednesday will bring us CPI, TICS and the Beige Book. Beige Book will be the most important release this day due to the upcoming rate decision and the high importance of rate differential at the moment. Thursday will also be important due to E-Z Trade Balance, Housing releases and the Philly Fed report. Finally on Friday we will get a look at Leading Indicators.
We’re getting near to historical heights so technical analysis will not work very much this week. This happens because indicators will tend to show a overbought and bearish trends but we need to give them some time to get used to these levels before they can be used to predict movements. Watch out for strong resistances as we are waiting for anything to trigger the USD rally to the south of our graphs.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
EUR/USD
The last time we saw levels such as the one we have right now, we had central bankers working together to lower the price of the Euro and help the USD recover some strength in order to stabilize global problems. Why shouldn’t this happen again? It will be important to watch any appearance by central bankers as they try to pull the euro lower to help their exports. Rate decision is a week from now so inflationary releases and Beige Book jump out as the most important releases of the week.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
Our analysis indicates Short EUR/USD every time it reaches 1.4900
- Take Profit 1:1.4700
- Take Profit 2: 1.4650
Published on Tue, Jan 15 2008, 08:14 GMT
0
0
Trend setting week
Tue, Jan 8 2008, 09:25 GMT
by Nexum Team
(After high volatility, this low profile week will let EUR/USD move naturally towards one direction)
ECB and BOE will announce rate decisions
On the past few weeks we’ve seen EUR/USD move widely across our charts, this was primarily due to low volume and releases reading surprising numbers. Now we find ourselves before a week with very few relevant releases for the US and some expected to read pretty neutral for Euro zone. However instead of being a boring week it will be interesting to see how currencies behave and set a trend as volume comes back to the market. It will, as always, be important to keep an eye on key releases as they become more important on weeks like this one.
On Monday we expect to see some releases for Euro Zone reading below the expected, this will probably move the EUR/USD lower as it climbed during the end of last week. Tuesday will bring us European Retail Sales, expected to read better than last month; then we will see US consumer credit and consumer confidence; both these releases will significant due to the lack of other releases. On Wednesday we will receive a load of releases for Germany and France; non of them of high importance. Thursday becomes the most important day as ECB and BOE announce their rate decisions. We expect both of them to remain their rates unchanged, however it will be important to listen to what Trichet has to say about their current problems with growth and inflation. Finally on Friday we will get Trade Balance for the US and we will probably close the week with marginal movements caused by this release.
The technical side still looks bearish for EUR/USD. We see the pair having trouble to break above the channel on our daily and weekly graphs. Other indicators are not to usefull due to the low volume weve had during the past weeks, wait for regular trading to come back before you use them in your analisis. However channels are still working and are now looking as strong resistances on several of our graphs.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD moved widely during the past few weeks as volume decreased due to the holidays. Traders are coming back and finding a quiet week on the fundamental side so we could see some bearishness as they use the technical side to set their weekly strategies. Focus and wait for important releases to set the trend. This week could have a see saw movement that would generate great profits if we take advantage.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
Our analysis indicates Short EUR/USD every time it reaches 1.4740
- Take Profit 1:1.4680
- Take Profit 2: 1.4590
Published on Tue, Jan 8 2008, 09:25 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Tue, Nov 20 2007, 16:21 GMT
“EUR/USD without a trend”
(Bank officials helping USD)
---The following days will set the trend for EUR/USD---
Oil prices, statements by OPEC members and Treasury Secretary Paulson are keeping the pair in a short range between 1.4580 and 1.4680. It might be very important to keep an eye on how the market begins to reorder its thinking and sets the trend for the rest of the year.
Secretary Paulson appears on Monday, he will probably speak on how a strong dollar is the best for the US. He’s done it so repeatedly that it has lost influence in the market and it will probably be ignored. Tuesday we receive Housing, Building Permits and the FOMC Minutes. Housing is expected pretty normal so this will reflect as good news for the US economy, the minutes will probably be hawkish as we remember what Bernanke spoke right after the meeting. Wednesday will be important due to the release of the leading indicators; they appear to be a bit negative so we could see the USD loose all its previous gains. On Wednesday we see Euro zone GDP and Current Account, GDP is expected to read positive but as we’ve seen drastic increase in Imports we could expect a Current Account that doesn’t support the Euro. US session will be closed due to thanks giving; we expect this effect to extend through Friday.
EUR/USD is trying to get back to levels around 1.4400. However as we saw it break through several resistances; it is now having a hard time getting past them to the south side. The pair might need help from the fundamental side to get past this supports to later on extend the move to prices where global economies are more comfortable.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
E-mail us at: info@nexumcapital.com
Published on Tue, Nov 20 2007, 16:21 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Tue, Nov 13 2007, 18:34 GMT
“Take advantage of the volatility”
(Bank officials helping USD)
---Wide swings in price action will give us a chance to get grate profits---
Last week we saw the ECB keep the rates unchanged, however the important part was during the press conference. Trichet did not try to support the Euro; in fact he spoke about the necessity of a stronger USD in order to recover the growing trend on global economies. Secretary Paulson later supported the idea that a stronger USD was necessary and that current price levels could increase the possibility of a global scale recession. These issues will begin to change the perception about USD strength in the following months. Traders will think twice before buying dips, however we still have speculators speaking about the 1.5000 barrier being touched in the near future. This will increase volatility considerably in the following days.
Monday and Tuesday will begin to show volatility after the comments during the last days of last week and the weekend. Wednesday will bring us GDP for Europe and then we will see PPI and Retail Sales for the US. We expect to see a see saw movement during the day, keep in mind that the trend could be shifting to the south side of our graphs so be careful not to get trapped above the price because you could be there for an extended period of time. Thursday will be CPI day as we receive both Eurozone and US CPI, both will be interesting due to the relevance of inflation these days. Good CPI could mean there is still space for the FED to cut rates and that ECB doesn’t need to hike anymore. Bad CPI will mean the exact opposite so keep a close eye to these releases. Friday will be important due to Trade Balance, TICS and Current Account. All these releases will move the price action widely so remain focused and follow you plan in order to get great profits during the week.
As we went up we saw EUR/USD break most of the resistances without many problems. We expect to see the same on the downslide of the pair. EUR/USD will be driven by fundamentals and the expectations of traders looking forth to a stronger USD. We believe the trend is changing and now with the support of Trichet and Secretary Paulson we will see people adding to this opinion so that the pair heads lower to level where everybody seems to be safer.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
E-mail us at: info@nexumcapital.com
Published on Tue, Nov 13 2007, 18:34 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Tue, Oct 23 2007, 15:36 GMT
“Increase in Volatility expected for the week”
(Right after G7 meeting we’re looking at wide moves to both sides of our graphs)
---Keep calm and get ready for profits---
Patience is one of the most important traits successful traders most have in the currency market. Last week we were talking about EUR/USD getting lower and trying to go below 1.4100 and further down. However se saw the pair reach new historical heights in early Asian session as the G7 decided not to talk about Euro strength and Dollar weakness. We’re sure many people decided to cut their loses and go long on the pair. This was a big mistake; you need to remain calm and work along with you plan. We are now 200 pips below that historical high and mayors are bagging to breath from the extremes we saw last week. We expect this correction to continue and take the EUR/USD lower.
This week we begin to a volatile start. We saw the pair get to historical heights then fall sharply on US session. We expect the pair to continue getting lower, not as fast as it did on Monday but it will get lower supported by both technical and fundamental analysis. Mondays most important release will be the appearance by Trichet on New York; its important to keep an eye due to the factor that he could give his point on G7 issues. Wednesday brings a weak trade balance for Italy, this could be a sign of the European economy weakening due to the high price of the Euro. Thursday brings weak IFO for Germany and good numbers for the US in Durable Goods. Friday will be a bit quiet with the most important release being a pretty normal Consumer Confidence.
On the technical side we see the pair already below important support levels. We expect it to try and break below the 1.4040 mark during the week. You need to focus on fundamentals but at this stage volatility will increase and the technical analysis will give you key points where you will take profits. Remain patient and have a plan for the following days.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
E-mail us at: info@nexumcapital.com
Published on Tue, Oct 23 2007, 15:36 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Tue, Oct 16 2007, 15:08 GMT
“Euro bounces back up but seems a bit weaker”
(If EUR/USD breaks key supports we could see a big fall in price action)
---Fundamentals and Technicals team up to send EUR/USD lower---
EUR/USD was looking for a week like this one; the pair needed both fundamental and technical analysis to point south in order to break strong supports located around 1.4040. The load of fundamental releases throughout the week looks to favor the Greenback widely. We expect some anticipation during the first few days of the week, later on the movement will depend on the actual numbers. Keep an eye on your technical analysis to set your profit taking points; lets take advantage of this week and get great profits.
Fundamentals begin to look interesting for us since Monday; Bernanke will appear in a conference and we should know by now that anytime he appears we should look closely to what he says. Tuesday begins with the ZEW surveys, this release shows us the weakening perception of the European economy. Later that day we will receive the Tics which also favor the USD as they come out better than last month. This is good because the market could begin anticipating good things for the US and not so good ones for Eurozone. Wednesday brings us numbers for consumer confidence and the release of the Beige Book, both this numbers are important and positive for the USD as they forecast improvement for the following months. Thursday is filled with important releases beginning with weak trade balance for the euro and strong jobless claims for the US. Later that day we will get the release of the Philly Fed numbers and finally an appearance of Trichet on Washington. This appearance is important because he could try to ease some tension of the US markets by saying some positive things, which would have a strong effect on the currency market.
The Technical side becomes more and more important as EUR/USD remains on the historical heights. This week we see a very important support in 1.4040, here we have a decisive point which if crossed could take the pair below 1.40 once again. Indicators are shouting short EUR/USD along most of our graphs but be careful because this is the effect of the current high prices. We believe that with the support of fundamentals we could see EUR/USD fall sharply on the following days and weeks.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
E-mail us at: info@nexumcapital.com
These are our Daily Predictions. For any question or suggestion don’t doubt and contact me at info@nexumcapital.com
Published on Tue, Oct 16 2007, 15:08 GMT
0
0
Euro bounces back up but seems a bit weaker
Tue, Oct 16 2007, 07:36 GMT
by Nexum Team
If EUR/USD breaks key supports we could see a big fall in price action
Fundamentals and Technicals team up to send EUR/USD lower
EUR/USD was looking for a week like this one; the pair needed both fundamental and technical analysis to point south in order to break strong supports located around 1.4040. The load of fundamental releases throughout the week looks to favor the Greenback widely. We expect some anticipation during the first few days of the week, later on the movement will depend on the actual numbers. Keep an eye on your technical analysis to set your profit taking points; lets take advantage of this week and get great profits. Fundamentals begin to look interesting for us since Monday; Bernanke will appear in a conference and we should know by now that anytime he appears we should look closely to what he says. Tuesday begins with the ZEW surveys, this release shows us the weakening perception of the European economy. Later that day we will receive the Tics which also favor the USD as they come out better than last month. This is good because the market could begin anticipating good things for the US and not so good ones for Eurozone. Wednesday brings us numbers for consumer confidence and the release of the Beige Book, both this numbers are important and positive for the USD as they forecast improvement for the following months. Thursday is filled with important releases beginning with weak trade balance for the euro and strong jobless claims for the US. Later that day we will get the release of the Philly Fed numbers and finally an appearance of Trichet on Washington. This appearance is important because he could try to ease some tension of the US markets by saying some positive things, which would have a strong effect on the currency market.
The Technical side becomes more and more important as EUR/USD remains on the historical heights. This week we see a very important support in 1.4040, here we have a decisive point which if crossed could take the pair below 1.40 once again. Indicators are shouting short EUR/USD along most of our graphs but be careful because this is the effect of the current high prices. We believe that with the support of fundamentals we could see EUR/USD fall sharply on the following days and weeks. Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Published on Tue, Oct 16 2007, 07:36 GMT
0
0
Expensive Euro could reflect on economic releases
Tue, Oct 9 2007, 15:20 GMT
by Nexum Team
After the long weekend we expect Greenback Bulls to push the pair lower
Trade Balance, Current Account and the G7 meeting might point south EUR/USD
We begin the week with a long weekend on both US and Asian markets. However wee already see 100 pip movements to the south of our graphs. We believe this is a sign of anticipation by market players. They are anticipating releases that could point a significant problem for eurozone; the euro being too high is beginning to show some negative effects on trade balance and current account. This problem is so important the G7 meeting is expected to talk profoundly on this subject to prevent global scale problems.
We have a long weekend on US and Asian markets on Monday so lets jump out directly to Tuesday; we will have trade balance, current account and GDP numbers for Eurozone members as well as the minutes for the last FOMC meeting. The most relevant release will be the minutes because we will see how the Fed is planning to act in future rate decisions. Wednesday will show current account and trade balance for the US, remember these releases are from the past month so don’t expect to see the full effect of the rate cut and the expensive euro already in the numbers. However we can already see anticipation by the market that these releases will hit the euro and take the pair lower. This is about it for the week and we expect the end of the week to depend on how the market reacts to movements on Tuesday and Wednesday, we could either see dip buying by euro bulls or a continuation of the move to the south side of our graphs by greenback bulls, keep an eye on the technical side of trading to get in and out at smart points.
The technical side is beginning to look bearish on EUR/USD. The channel is beginning to turn and will point to the south by the end of this week. We expect EUR/USD to test levels around 1.4000 where it could encounter psychological support. However if fundamentals are behind the Dollar we could see the pair head even lower and test the 1.3900 support.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Published on Tue, Oct 9 2007, 15:20 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Tue, Sep 25 2007, 15:11 GMT
“Market Readapting after rate hike”
(The market will remain ranged for the following week)
---New historical ‘tops’ can act as psychological resistances---
50 basis points by the Fed is still on everybody’s mind. However we need to begin analyzing how far can the Euro extend the move, how much can the euro zone economy sustain a high priced currency? These factors begin to come into play and traders will need to remain focused and patient in order to take advantage and great profits out of the current situation. People are hyped by the current price action and the breaking of historical heights but remember that an expensive currency weakens economies so don’t think the euro will keep going north forever. The key element will be identifying when the turning point will occur.
Fundamentals continue to point in favor of the Euro. Consumer Confidence on Tuesday looks weak for the US as well as the Durable Goods number on Wednesday and the GDP on Thursday. Friday is filled with economic releases for euro zone, they are mixed so expect a see saw movement at the end of the week. These fundamental releases are mostly pointing on the same direction; however let’s analyze them a bit further. They all represent numbers before the interest rate decreased last week. This means that the market could ignore some of them due to the expectation of a radical change on the upcoming months. For example, Durable Goods will show a weak number on Tuesday; this number represents the amount of Durable Goods bought last month. With the interest rate 50 bp lower, we could expect large firms on several sectors of the economy, to begin buying machinery and other Durable Goods. With this in mind the market will probably ignore this number and focus on something else.
With this in mind we begin to base our decisions on how the technical side of trading is looking. We see a strong trend to sell EUR/USD; this trend is based on the necessity of the pair to breath after such a great move to the north of our graphs. We’ve seen the pair move over 500 pips this month and it’s reached historical heights. Our analysis brings us to the conclusion that the pair could go either way. Releases give the upside momentum some more space and technical analysis is shouting short EUR/USD. We believe the market will begin to anticipate a relatively big downfall (below1.3900) during the next few months so try to ride the EUR/USD as it goes down. We surely rode it as it went to 1.4000 as we predicted at the beginning of the year. Let’s remain calm and analyze things before we jump into action. Be patient and wait for your opportunity to earn some great profits.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
E-mail us at: info@nexumcapital.com
Published on Tue, Sep 25 2007, 15:11 GMT
2
0
EUR/USD is getting closer to our yearly prediction
Tue, Sep 11 2007, 15:59 GMT
by Nexum Team
(Our 1.4000 prediction is within sigh)
US fundamentals continue to harm the USD
Last week we saw the continuation of Euro strengthening due to the lack of confidence investors have on the US correction on their economic problems. The main talk is about the expectation of rate cut by the Fed before the year ends. This will help us get to our predicted high price at 1.4000. This price sounded very high on January but it now begins to look closer every day as we break historical highs and the trend continues to be EUR/USD to the upside.
Volatility this week will depend highly on what is said by Central Bank officials at the beginning of the week. We have several appearances on Monday but you should really focus on Tuesday’s appearances by Trichet and Bernanke. We are going to get a pretty good look into the future of the currencies during these days. Focus and try to look trough the information and understand where the concerns are. Friday will also be very important due to the releases of current account, Import price Index and Consumer Confidence. These releases are expected to show the continuation of the weakening economy in the US; however it will be very important to keep an eye to any inflation related information. If inflation continues to be under control, the possibility of a rate decrease will be higher and the market will react to this possibility pushing the pair higher.
Technical analysis is a bit out of place this week. We find the pair higher than ever so roofs and barriers are well passed by now. We expect the pair to respect levels such as 1.3900 and specially bounce downward every time it gets close to 1.4000. Focus on fundamentals for the following weeks.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient
Published on Tue, Sep 11 2007, 15:59 GMT
0
0
"Rate decision week"
Wed, Sep 5 2007, 10:15 GMT
by Nexum Team
As uncertainty falls behind we expect fundamentals to rule the market
After a couple of weeks where the market was moving a bit erratically we begin to see some stability and as trends begin to receive confirmation from fundamentals. This week begins very calm as the US has a long weekend due to Labor Day. However, releases begin to step up as the week moves on.
Important fundamentals will begin to appear on Wednesday. The first one will be Beige Book; keep an eye on this one as It will give us an inside to the economy and rate cut speculators will be closely watching numbers and we will see this effect directly on the price action. Thursday will be very important due to the rate decisions by the BoE and ECB. It is highly expected to see the BoE maintain the rates unchanged however there is analysts talking about the possibility of a rate hike by ECB or some hawkish comments regarding a future hike on 2007. Finnally, Friday will be an active day as we will get numbers for Trade Balance, Current Account and Non-Farm Payrolls. We expect this numbers to appear a bit negative and the USD will suffer at the end of the week.
On the Technical side we can see that we’ve already touched the first weekly support located at 1.3550, this will probably be our weekly low. We expect the EUR/USD to oscillate between 1.3550 and 1.3715. Take advantage of these opportunities and get in the market when you see the pair below 1.3600. We have the pair in our channels but at the lower side of them so we have space to go further north in our graphs.
Keep an eye on key releases and use the technical side to determine your entry and profit taking points. Focus and be patient and have a great week.
Published on Wed, Sep 5 2007, 10:15 GMT
0
0
The Calm Before the Storm
Mon, Aug 20 2007, 18:17 GMT
by Nexum Team
This week will be extremely quiet
Fundamentals will bring volatility during this calm week
Last week continued to look very volatile due to the problems with liquidity and the continuation of the effects of the sub-prime mortgages problem we saw the week before. However this week looks to be extremely calm as we have very few releases and the main concern of the market could be the cut in lending rates we saw late last week by the Fed. This week we will have a short range between 1.3550 and 1.3460. Try to get in and out as fast as possible and get small profits several times during the week so we could add up to a good week. Be patient because we’re expecting a wide move on the following weeks due to the outlook that Fed will cut rates this year and that the ECB will rise them. Keep an eye on releases regarding movements by central banks and be patient to wait for the right time to get in and ride the Euro to 1.4000 by the end of the year.
Fundamentals will be pretty low this week. Focus on any announcement by central banks and on the meeting by the BoJ to forecast any future movements on the interest rates. Also keep an eye on announcements by hedge funds and mutual funds if they speak about where they are going to keep their money, this is important because we expect them to begin to look at other currencies such as the Euro and this will weaken the USD in the future.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Published on Mon, Aug 20 2007, 18:17 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Tue, Aug 14 2007, 15:22 GMT
“Markets moving cautiously”
(We saw a spike in volatility late last week)
---Fundamentals will increase volatility during the week---
The end of last week had some wide movements in most mayors. Some of our clients began to ask us what was this problem of sup-prime mortgage; every news channel was talking about it. So here is a quick explanation. When people fail to pay any loan from the bank, or even when they don’t have any credit history at all, they are seen by mortgage companies as a sup-prime client. This client is categorized as a higher risk and therefore is charged a higher interest rate on their loan. Hedge Funds and other companies had used this as an opportunity to get higher returns on their clients investments but last week we saw big banks and hedge funds pulling out of this kind of investment, this had negative effects all over the world due to the big hit housing is expected to get during the next months as well as the lack of financing that high risk firms are facing. Central Banks jumped into the act and began injecting cash flow into the economies so that equities and securities didn’t fall too hard. On the currency world we saw an increase in volatility, which is always good if you are a patient and disciplined trader. This week we begin with the market cautiously waiting for stabilization in order to continue moving as usual. For this, lets keep an open eye on fundamentals and don’t be afraid to take advantage of the increase in volatility.
As usual fundamentals will begin to take effect on Tuesday, we begin with the release of Trade Balance and PPI for the US. Both numbers are expected to read a bit negative so expect a move north wise during the day. Wednesday will be our big day with the most important releases appearing during the day, keep an eye on report on housing numbers and the TICS.
Today we have the technical side a bit shaken as Friday’s sessions had wide moves that took indicators out of place. However we see our resistances on daily, weekly and monthly graphs beginning to look closer every day. As we get closer to 1.3520 we will begin to see profit taking on short positions as well as the executions of entry limits for long positions. Be ready for a change in trend during the next weeks but don’t jump in too fast as the pair could extend the move to the south before it regains strength to get higher in the look for 1.4000.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
E-mail us at: info@nexumcapital.com
Published on Tue, Aug 14 2007, 15:22 GMT
0
0
Markets moving cautiously
Tue, Aug 14 2007, 14:18 GMT
by Nexum Team
We saw a spike in volatility late last week
Fundamentals will increase volatility during the week
The end of last week had some wide movements in most mayors. Some of our clients began to ask us what was this problem of sup-prime mortgage; every news channel was talking about it. So here is a quick explanation. When people fail to pay any loan from the bank, or even when they don’t have any credit history at all, they are seen by mortgage companies as a sup-prime client. This client is categorized as a higher risk and therefore is charged a higher interest rate on their loan. Hedge Funds and other companies had used this as an opportunity to get higher returns on their clients investments but last week we saw big banks and hedge funds pulling out of this kind of investment, this had negative effects all over the world due to the big hit housing is expected to get during the next months as well as the lack of financing that high risk firms are facing. Central Banks jumped into the act and began injecting cash flow into the economies so that equities and securities didn’t fall too hard. On the currency world we saw an increase in volatility, which is always good if you are a patient and disciplined trader. This week we begin with the market cautiously waiting for stabilization in order to continue moving as usual. For this, lets keep an open eye on fundamentals and don’t be afraid to take advantage of the increase in volatility. As usual fundamentals will begin to take effect on Tuesday, we begin with the release of Trade Balance and PPI for the US. Both numbers are expected to read a bit negative so expect a move north wise during the day. Wednesday will be our big day with the most important releases appearing during the day, keep an eye on report on housing numbers and the TICS.
Today we have the technical side a bit shaken as Friday’s sessions had wide moves that took indicators out of place. However we see our resistances on daily, weekly and monthly graphs beginning to look closer every day. As we get closer to 1.3520 we will begin to see profit taking on short positions as well as the executions of entry limits for long positions. Be ready for a change in trend during the next weeks but don’t jump in too fast as the pair could extend the move to the south before it regains strength to get higher in the look for 1.4000.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Published on Tue, Aug 14 2007, 14:18 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Tue, Aug 7 2007, 15:34 GMT
“We’re all looking at the FOMC”
(Quiet week ahead increases the attention to FED’s decision)
---Pay close attention to important releases---
Last week we saw the USD loose back some of the space it had covered during the week. Non-Farm Payrolls seem to be the cause of this movement as the correction didn’t reach the expectations of the market. Now, we have a quiet week in which the lack of fundamentals will give high importance to the FOMC meeting.
Monday will be very calm as market players wait for any indication on what to expect on Tuesday’s FOMC meeting. This meeting will be the decisive point of the week as the pair will begin to move in a direction depending on what Ben Bernanke speaks. We saw a very hawkish Trichet last week so the market could be expecting the same from Bernanke. It will be important to keep an eye on any indication of rate cuts this year and how the Fed sees inflation and the housing market. The following days will have marginal movements depending on how the market reacts to what is said on Tuesday’s press conference. The following days, releases like German Trade Balance and Jobless Claims will play a bigger role than what they use to. This is due to the lack of relevant fundamental releases throughout the week
Technical side is pretty calm as the pair reaches “normal” levels. EUR/USD is expected to remain in a tight range during the week and we could see some breakouts during Tuesday during Bernanke’s press meeting.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
E-mail us at: info@nexumcapital.com
Published on Tue, Aug 7 2007, 15:34 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD finally down
Tue, Jul 31 2007, 15:16 GMT
by Nexum Team
How long can this continue?
We got the correction we expected. How long will it last?
EUR/USD finally got some breathing space as it managed to move from above 1.3800 to levels around 1.3600. It’s time to create a plan on when we’re going to buy and ride the EUR/USD to 1.4000. This week doesn’t seem to have the potential to begin the upward trend, however it could happen any day now. Lets wait to see how this week turns out before we jump into conclusions; we need to see how the market is going to react to the current price level. Wait for the main fundamentals and for technicals to get back into their place before making any decision. We’ve had a great month and we need to concentrate to begin the next one with profits on our pockets.
As usual we begin on Tuesday with fundamentals; we will receive numbers for Personal Income and Personal Spending, followed by the publication of Cosumer Confidence. These releases are not very important but they could move the market due to the lack of stronger fundamentals. Thursday will bring us the Jobless Claims Report, we expect this one to help the USD gain some more strength, taking it back to the lows we saw during Sunday’s Asian Session. Finally on Friday we expect Non-Farm payrolls to help the USD. They are expected a worse than the previous month but the surprise is to the upside and as market players anticipate to this release we could see a set back and a continuation of the depreciation of the Euro against the USD.
Technicals finally got some space to move around. During the beginning of the week they look a bit confused as the big move late last week still seems to be a factor on where they are pointing. Wait a while for them to reset to normal and then use technical analysis to set your entry point before we go north again.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Published on Tue, Jul 31 2007, 15:16 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Tue, Jul 24 2007, 15:51 GMT
“EUR/USD trying to break to either side”
(The pair has been moving in a tight range for a wile now)
---See Saw movements give us the opportunity to get in and out repeatedly---
EUR/USD seems to be trapped around 1.3800. The Fed tried to help the Dollar with hawkish comments but the dip was re-bought, this has been the story for the past week; EUR/USD trapped between 1.3780 and 1.3850. This tight range could be broken in any moment and to either side. We expect to see the pair head lower on the following days before Euro bulls jump back in the game and take the pair higher. Some analysts are saying that 1.40 is next step but we believe that we will see 1.3550 before we get the final boost upward.
We begin the fundamental week on Tuesday with Euro Zone industrial production; this won’t have any effect on the market as it is expected to read pretty normal. The first big release comes on Wednesday; we have a very poor number for existing home sales followed by the Beige Book, which will play a key role on the week’s movements due to the lack of other important releases. Thursday will bring a positive reading on Durable Goods but the housing sector will once again hit the Dollar as New Home Sales reads poorly. Finally on Friday we have GDP; we’ve seen this prediction changed along the year and it seems that the USD will get another hit.
The technical side shows us a pair in a tight range and as resistances and supports begin to get closer the only ting we can expect is a strong movement to any side. The key thing will be finding out which side before the actual movement occurs. We believe EUR/USD will be looking south before it explodes to 1.4000 before the end of the year.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
E-mail us at: info@nexumcapital.com
Published on Tue, Jul 24 2007, 15:51 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD trying to break to either side
Tue, Jul 24 2007, 07:45 GMT
by Nexum Team
The pair has been moving in a tight range for a while now
See Saw movements give us the opportunity to get in and out repetitively
EUR/USD seems to be trapped around 1.3800. The Fed tried to help the Dollar with hawkish comments but the dip was re-bought, this has been the story for the past week; EUR/USD trapped between 1.3780 and 1.3830. This tight range could be broken in any moment and to either side. We expect to see the pair head lower on the following days before Euro bulls jump back in the game and take the pair higher. Some analysts are saying that 1.40 is next step but we believe that we will see 1.3550 before we get the final boost upward. We begin the fundamental week on Tuesday with Euro Zone industrial production; this won’t have any effect on the market as it is expected to read pretty normal. The first big release comes on Wednesday; we have a very poor number for existing home sales followed by the Beige Book, which will play a key role on the week’s movements due to the lack of other important releases. Thursday will bring a positive reading on Durable Goods but the housing sector will once again hit the Dollar as New Home Sales reads poorly. Finally on Friday we have GDP; we’ve seen this prediction changed along the year and it seems that the USD will get another hit.
The technical side shows us a pair in a tight range and as resistances and supports begin to get closer the only ting we can expect is a strong movement to any side. The key thing will be finding out which side before the actual movement occurs. We believe EUR/USD will be looking south before it explodes to 1.4000 before the end of the year.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Published on Tue, Jul 24 2007, 07:45 GMT
0
0
USD might get room to gasp this week
Tue, Jul 17 2007, 07:26 GMT
by Nexum Team
The USD finally gets a week that looks positive
Strong Fundamentals will lead the way
EUR/USD continues reaching historical highs. We’ve seen the pair get to 1.3818 but it hasn’t been able to maintain the price action above 1.3800. This week looks Greenback positive; however we expect euro bulls to continue buying every dip we see. There will come to point where we might see the pair heading quickly to 1.4000 or heading steadily day by day to a price below 1.3650 once again.
This week’s movements will be lead by fundamentals. We begin on Tuesday with CPI for the UK, followed by the release of the ZEW Surveys on Euro Zone and finally we have PPI and TICS for the US. All of this releases are predicted to go against the Euro and this way we begin a move that will give the USD some space to breath before they can capitalize on a bigger move to the downside. On Wednesday we have several important releases beginning with the Minutes of the latest BoE meeting; later that day we have an appearance by Ben Bernanke speaking about monetary policy so it will be important to keep an eye on what he says and how he explains the FED’s plan for the near future. Both these releases are very important to predict movements on future weeks however the appearance by Bernanke will surely have a immediate effect on the price action so it’s important to be focused on what he says and how the market reacts. Thursday is important due to the release or Leading Indicators and the Philly Fed report. Friday will be a calm day; we could see some dip buying by euro bulls due to the expected move to the south of our graphs during the week.
The technical side shows us a pair that has been going north for the past five weeks. We can see how it is loosing some steam due to historical high being so close and that is playing the role of a psychological barrier. We see that EUR/USD is now in overbought territory and with the help of fundamentals we could see the pair head a bit lower to latter on become get re-bought and continue the move to 1.4000 and higher before the year ends.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Published on Tue, Jul 17 2007, 07:26 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Mon, Jul 9 2007, 18:32 GMT
“EUR/USD trapped in 100 pip range”
(EUR/USD will have a see saw movement during the week)
---Lack of fundamentals will keep us in a tight range---
Last week we saw a continuation of the upward trend by EUR/USD. However this was mainly the effect of sustained good releases for Euro and negative ones for the USD. This week is a bit different as we get some positive releases, which most likely have already been anticipated, but we will have quite a few “quiet days”. This will create a see saw movement in which we should try and buy the dips to get profits on the way up.
Fundamentals continue to play a key role and we should pay close attention to be able to buy the correct dips and take profits along the week. We begin on Tuesday with the appearance by Ben Bernanke, this could be completely irrelevant but he’s speaking about inflation so you should keep an eye on what he says and how the market reacts to his words. However we believe that after a move due to his appearance, the price action will go back to where it was before the conference. That same day we have a surprisingly low Trade Balance for Japan, this could easily be anticipated as of today, so expect to see the “buy the rumor sell the fact” type of action. Then on Thursday we will receive the release of the rate decision by the BoJ, they have already stated that we will not see rate hikes for a while, but the Japanese economy needs something done before they get into a bigger problem regarding carry trade accumulation. Later that day Trade Balance for US sounds important due to the lack of fundamentals. Finally on Friday we see retail sales for the US which are expected weak and will probably help Euro finish the week pointing north.
On the technical side we get the idea that EUR/USD could remain in the current price action for the week and that in the following weeks we are going to see a confirmation of the upward trend or we will see EUR/USD go back below 1.3550 to regroup and try to head higher for the rest of the year.
It is important to keep in mind the growing problem of Carry Trade. We saw the BoE hike the interest rate and they don’t seem to plan on stopping right there. This will get people around the globe highly interested in getting some of the Carry Trade profit into their pockets, but experts are already creating a buzz about the risk of getting into this type of investments. We strongly recommend stepping aside and waiting for carry trade to unwind. When this happens be sure to ride along us because it will bring great profits as it ‘eats all those greedy people’ that stayed behind trying to win easy money without thinking on the risk might be getting into.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
Published on Mon, Jul 9 2007, 18:32 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Tue, Jul 3 2007, 13:15 GMT
“EUR/USD back over 1.3600”
(EUR/USD made the move technicals were expecting)
---The following week has Fundamentals supporting Euro, but Technicals --- supporting USD---
This week’s releases are looking quite positive for Euro and negative for the USD. However we need to take into account the current price levels in the pair, 1.3630 is very high and Euro bulls could begin to take profits and wait for a further dip to get in their long positions one more time. We’re going to be a lot more focused this week to notice if there is any anticipation or an opportunity to buy the rumor sell the fact. This week is going to be tricky so be patient and don’t rush into going long just because fundamentals are going to support that. We’ve seen in several occasions that when everything points north, the pair heads south to teach us the lesson that the market will never be that easy to read.
Fundamentals will play a key role this week and these ones are the most important: Tuesday we have Euro-Zone unemployment rate, later that day we have the Redbook and Factory Orders for the US. Wednesday will be extremely calm due to the closure of US markets because of the 4th of July - Holiday. Thursday will be very important for the preview of what can happen on the following weeks, We have rate decisions by both the BoE and ECB, followed by an appearance of Trichet at a press conference. Finally on Friday we have Non-Farm Payrolls, which have grown in importance during the last few months. Keep a close eye on these releases but remember to be on the outlook for anticipated moves by the market.
On the technical side we are looking at indicators beginning to move into overbought territory. We are having a big move to the north during Monday’s sessions and this makes technicals look a bit bearish for the forecast of the week. However we recommend waiting till the market calms down and then you can really look at the trend.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
Published on Tue, Jul 3 2007, 13:15 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Tue, Jun 26 2007, 15:42 GMT
“EUR/USD getting ready to explode”
(EUR/USD has a mixed week ahead but Technicals are getting to a point where the pair will need to pick a side then explode)
---Lets continue buying dips and waiting for the big move---
We have a week full of fundamental releases, however they appear to have a mixture of effects on the currencies and we will most likely end the week pretty close to where we started. The good thing is that it will continue to give us the opportunity to buy dips and wait for the big move, which is now closer than ever according to technical indicators showing us a scenario where EUR/USD will have to choose a side and then explode giving us a greater opportunity of taking even greater profits.
Fundamentals will be key on the following days where the pair will begin to show us the trend we will follow for the next few months. Monday will show us numbers for Existing Home Sales, which are expected to read a bit poor for the US but nothing too important. Tuesday will begin with Euro zone Current Account, followed with New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence for the US and finally the release of the Retail Sales for Japan. Wednesday will be quiet, showing only numbers for Durable Goods. Thursday is once again the most important day of the week with releases such as GDP and the FOMC rate decision later that same day. We expect the FOMC to remain rates unchanged as well as their statement on the press conference; however we expect the market to be quiet before the release because nobody wants to get caught behind on a release of this matter. Finally on Friday we will get consumer confidence for Euro zone. This week will mainly be focused on Wednesday and Thursday so be patient and take advantage of opportunities and remember that the wide move is getting closer we just need to figure out where it is going to go.
Technicals are becoming a key factor this week and could be a decisive one to determine the trend for the following month. What jumps out the most is the Daily and monthly graphs, which are at a level where a move has to be made on either side. We expect to see EUR/USD break above the resistances and then use them as supports in order to get ready to receive some push from fundamentals and then explode to the north of our graphs. Let’s be patient and keep an eye on the market so we can ride this explosion and get our profits.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
Published on Tue, Jun 26 2007, 15:42 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Mon, Jun 18 2007, 19:07 GMT
“EUR/USD looking to get back up”
(EUR/USD will be waiting for fundamentals to begin the move to the north)
---Buy in small dips and take great profits---
We’re looking at a week that will begin to look bullish due to strong fundamentals on Eurozone and some weak for the US. However at the end of the week we expect to see the pair slow down and maybe lose some of the space they won. Lets get ready to buy dips and get profits along the week.
Monday will be pretty calm so we will begin our fundamental analysis on Tuesday. This day we will have to be focused on the release of the German Zew Surveys for Euro and for the USD we will see Housing Starts. We expect both releases to help the Euro get a bit higher. Later that same day it will be important to keep an eye on the BoJ minutes as they might help save the JPY from further weakness or even give us a peek at what the BoJ is planning to do with the extremely high prices of EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. It will be important to look at the release of the minutes of the last meeting of the BoE on Wednesday. This release will be positive for the GBP but we’ll need to watch out for the buy the rumor sell the fact factor that seems to be cooking in the market. We believe that the surprise is to the downside due to the high current level of the GBP/USD and that the market is expecting to see that further rate hikes are on the mind of the BoE. Tuesday is the day that marks the change, we will se the Philadelphia Fed index and this will most likely help the USD regain some of the lost territory. Finally on Friday the German IFO will be the last relevant release of the week and we expect to see the price action finish just a bit lower than the week’s high.
For the moment the technical side is showing us the possibility of the pair heading lower, however we expect this to change before the end of Tuesday due to the quiet market we’ll have on Monday. This will take indicators to neutral levels before the movement on Tuesday and Wednesday takes them to bullish positions. We expect to get help from both the technical and fundamental side this week where we will see EUR/USD go higher.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
E-mail us at: info@nexumcapital.com
Published on Mon, Jun 18 2007, 19:07 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD will be moving slowly this week
Tue, Jun 12 2007, 11:38 GMT
by Nexum Team
(Patience will be our strongest weapon)
Lets buy dips and take swift profits
The beginning of the week will be pretty calm for EUR/USD. We have Greenspan appearing on Tuesday but we believe there will be no move after what he says. However beginning on Wednesday we should really focus on the fundamental side of trading.
Wednesday will bring us an appearance by Trichet followed by Beige Book Report. Thursday we will see PMI and later that day we will see the BoJ announce the decision regarding the interest rate. We believe they will leave the rate unchanged but there could be some interesting things on the press conference regarding EUR/JPY. Finally on Friday we have important releases beginning with the Trade Balance for Europe which looks pretty bad. Then we will have CPI and Tics for US and they seem pretty good so we could once more finish the week looking south.
The technical side will begin to play an important role on the following weeks. We are getting every day closer to strong supports. We believe that EUR/USD will not be able to get below 1.3250 and probably will have a rough time going below 1.3280. In the other side, if EUR/USD begins to get bullish there is nothing to stop the pair for a while as it gets back to levels above 1.3500.
In general terms, a quiet week for us here at FX… stay calm, dip in some profits and pocket your gains… lets start buckling up for NEXT WEEK!
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Published on Tue, Jun 12 2007, 11:38 GMT
0
0
Rate announcement week
Mon, Jun 4 2007, 18:35 GMT
by Nexum Team
(As usual when we have ECB announcing the interest rate, things seem to work a bit different)
EUR/USD looking to consolidate the upward trend
This week will be very interesting due to the high expectance to see ECB hike the interest rate and BoE to keep it unchanged. However don’t expect the market to be that easy to read. We expect to see a situation in where we have a buy the rumor sell the fact movement on EUR/USD. This hike is highly expected so expect EUR/USD to go up on Monday and Tuesday but don’t be so sure it will continue after the announcement on Wednesday. On the other side the market is expecting BoE to remain rates unchanged but since a couple of months ago when they hiked without anybody expecting it, the market now gets prepared for any surprise in the GBP interest rate.
These are not the only important fundamentals during the week; we begin on Tuesday with ISM non Manufacturing for the US followed by an appearance by Secretary Paulson. This two could be market movers so we recommend keeping you attention focused on these releases during the day. Wednesday will be all eyes on ECB and then on Trichet during the press conference. As we said before watch out for the buy the rumor sell the fact factor. Thursday will bring us the decision by the BoE which we expect will be to remain rates unchanged. Finally on Friday we have important numbers on Trade Balance for Both Euro zone and US. This numbers could both help the USD so we could finish the week looking south.
On the technical side we see how EUR/USD is finally bouncing upward from the several resistances located just below 1.3430. The pair has space to go north for a while but it will need the back up from fundamentals to do it. If it doesn’t get this back up we could see the pair heading back to 1.3400 or maybe lower.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Published on Mon, Jun 4 2007, 18:35 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Tue, May 29 2007, 14:54 GMT
“EUR/USD looking to go UP”
(Fundamentals are finally aligned for an Euro comeback)
---EUR/USD could use releases to set the upward trend---
The beginning of the week will be extremely quiet due to holiday Memorial Day on the US markets as well as some important ones in Europe. However, from then on, we will have a very interesting week. Beginning on Tuesday with Current Account and Consumer Confidence for the Euro. This same day we will also see the Minutes for the last BoJ meeting, this could be important for future opportunities to trade the Yen. Wednesday will bring us the minutes from the last FOMC meeting; this could also be very important due to the latest releases indicating inflation slowing down. If we see in the minutes that some bank officials are thinking about stopping rate hikes for good or even decreasing the rate we will se a strong movement to the north of EUR/USD. Thursday will give us some time to breath as the day will be pretty calm, having as the only important release consumer confidence for Euro Zone. Finally on Friday we will have a load of releases for the US, these releases will most likely help Euro and take the pair higher at the end of the week.
The technical side looks the same as last week; pretty bullish and waiting for fundamentals to explode to the north of our graphs. EUR/USD has been going down for a while now, we expect to see a bounce back up. There is not that much space to go down so be ready to get in the market with profitable positions. However don’t get greedy and remember to be patient and most importantly have a plan and follow it.
Published on Tue, May 29 2007, 14:54 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD looking to go UP
Tue, May 29 2007, 14:07 GMT
by Nexum Team
(Fundamentals are finally aligned for an Euro comeback)
EUR/USD could use releases to set the upward trend
The beginning of the week will be extremely quiet due to holiday Memorial Day on the US markets as well as some important ones in Europe. However, from then on, we will have a very interesting week. Beginning on Tuesday with Current Account and Consumer Confidence for the Euro. This same day we will also see the Minutes for the last BoJ meeting, this could be important for future opportunities to trade the Yen. Wednesday will bring us the minutes from the last FOMC meeting; this could also be very important due to the latest releases indicating inflation slowing down. If we see in the minutes that some bank officials are thinking about stopping rate hikes for good or even decreasing the rate we will se a strong movement to the north of EUR/USD. Thursday will give us some time to breath as the day will be pretty calm, having as the only important release consumer confidence for Euro Zone. Finally on Friday we will have a load of releases for the US, these releases will most likely help Euro and take the pair higher at the end of the week.
The technical side looks the same as last week; pretty bullish and waiting for fundamentals to explode to the north of our graphs. EUR/USD has been going down for a while now, we expect to see a bounce back up. There is not that much space to go down so be ready to get in the market with profitable positions. However don’t get greedy and remember to be patient and most importantly have a plan and follow it.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Published on Tue, May 29 2007, 14:07 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD getting ready to bounce back
Tue, May 22 2007, 08:57 GMT
by Nexum Team
(Our predicted fall on EUR/USD is coming to its lowest point)
EUR/USD won’t go much lower before a strong bounce upward
We begin the week with EUR/USD below 1.3500. We predicted this was going to happen and we still believe there is some space for EUR/USD to go lower, but it can’t go much lower due to strong fundamentals giving us a reason to believe euro bulls will be back shortly to get us much higher. This week has some key releases that will decide if the turning point we are waiting for (the one that will take us to new heights) is just around the corner or if we will need to be patient and wait a while before we profit from our long positions on EUR/USD.
The Fundamental side will be very important this week. The most important releases begin to appear on Tuesday with the BoJ minutes, which will be important to watch closely due to the continuing factor of the carry trade. Later that day we will get some releases that are expected to be great, Trade Balance, ZEW surveys, etc. We should also pay close attention to releases regarding US economy, Redbook and appearances by Fed officials could move the market. On Wednesday the most important release will be the BoE minutes, this is very important because the Bank of England doesn’t have press conferences after the announcement of the rate decision so the minutes are the first peak into why and how the decision was made. This will give us an idea of what will happen later on the year with the interest rate and the GBP. On Thursday we will receive a load of releases but lets focus on the important ones, keep an eye to IFO on Europe and later don’t miss the Durable Goods, Jobless Claims and New Home Sales numbers for the US. Finally on Friday lets focus on the Existing Home Sales report for the US.
Our technical analysis is showing us EUR/USD reaching a point where a bounce back to the north is almost unstoppable. Let’s use our channels to decide when we’re going in with our long positions. Be patient, EUR/USD still has some space to go further down, this doesn’t mean it will go further down, however keep an eye on the price action because any day now we could see the pair explode to the north of our graphs and you don’t want to miss the fun, and certainly nobody wants to miss the profits.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Published on Tue, May 22 2007, 08:57 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD will be quiet this week
Wed, May 16 2007, 07:31 GMT
by Nexum Team
(A mix in fundamentals will keep us in a tight range)
A see saw movement gives us the opportunity to get in and out repeatedly
This week will be pretty calm compared to the movements we saw the last few weeks. However we are expecting to see EUR/USD bounce back over 1.3600 even if it only lasts a few hours. This because the latest movement we’ve seen has been all USD positive and, as we’ve said before, traders need to rest a bit after a continued move to one side. Euro bulls could take advantage of any worse than expected release on US economy to make this move. We expect the week to have a see saw movement for this pair. Ranging from 1.3470 to 1.3580; this will give us the opportunity to get in and out of the market repeatedly so we could add up small profits to make this a great week for our clients. Just remember to be patient and wait for the right time to get in the market because you don’t want to get stuck behind in a low volatility week.
In the fundamental side were expecting few important releases, on Tuesday we get GDP for Euro zone, later that day we will see CPI and a positively expected Tics for the US. This type of releases that are expected very positive usually work against the currency because if the number reads positive but not as positive as expected we could see a move against that currency. On Wednesday the BoJ will meet to decide upon the interest rate. We expect to hear the same and see the rate remain unchanged. Thursday will show us the Philly Fed numbers, which have been important the last few times we’ve seen them. And finally on Friday the G8 meeting will begin, this meeting will show its effects, if any, until Sunday or Monday in the US session.
Thecnicals look as usual; the only difference would be on the daily chart in which we see the pair trying to get over the channel once again. We believe it will have problems around 1.3610 and will fall back to cross the channel to the south side. Use the technical analysis to set your entry points so you can take advantage of this week and get great profits.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Published on Wed, May 16 2007, 07:31 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Tue, May 8 2007, 14:42 GMT
“Rate decisions around the Globe will set the trend”
(This week is full of Central Bank announcements)
---Lets take advantage of the high volatility week we have ahead---
We are upon a week that will have big ups and downs for EUR/USD; mainly due to the fundamental side of trading. We’ll begin on Monday with the BoJ rate decision. We expect them to keep the rate unchanged but it will be very important to keep an eye on what the Bank Governor says on the press conference. Tuesday will show us numbers for Wholesales Sales. Wednesday is going to be important because we get Trade Balance, Current Account and finally we get the FOMC announcement regarding the interest rate. We also expect this rate to remain unchanged but the USD needs to hear a hawkish Bernanke to fight euro bulls and get the pair to lower levels. Thursday will also be critical to the following week’s trend, we have and BOE that seems to be raising interest rates this week and ECB that, although is not likely, could get influenced by London and consider raising the rate as well. We expect to see rates unchanged for Euro zone but Trichet could speak on the current price of EUR/USD and EUR/JPY hitting numbers on Exports keep an eye on this press conference because it could be a big market mover. Thursday will also show us numbers for Import Price Index and Trade Balance for the US. Finally on Friday we get retail sales for the US.
On the technical side we see things pretty stable. They look as if they were getting ready for a move to the upside. We believe that by Wednesday, EUR/USD will have reached the weekly high around 1.3670 and then will bounce back below 1.3500 to finish the week around 1.3530.
In a week in which we have several important releases on the fundamental side, the most important thing will be to be pertinent and to focus on relevant releases. Try to anticipate the moves and be careful with the possibility of having a buy the rumor sell the fact on Wednesday before the FOMC announcement.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
Published on Tue, May 8 2007, 14:42 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Tue, Apr 24 2007, 15:21 GMT
“We could see EUR/USD bounce back below 1.3500”
(This week will be pretty calm but the lack of trading volume could bring the euro down)
---We can’t stay at this price forever; expect a breakthrough to any side soon.
Last week we were talking about how high levels in EUR/USD would have an effect on the market that would lead to a bounce back below 1.3400. We talked about how after several sessions with positive moves, currencies tend to take a break and loose some of the won territory. This happens when traders begin to take profits and prepare to buy dips and retake the bullish posture that will take EUR/USD to new historical heights. Well we still think this is going to happen any time soon and now we are upon a week that has little, and almost no relevant releases that will make the pair move strongly in any direction. This will make medium and some long term euro bulls remain out of the game. Creating a shortage in trading volume for the euro, this will translate in a short term trend to the south of our graphs. We expect to later see euro bulls coming back and buying any significant dip to move higher. But for the meantime we believe EUR/USD is going to come down at least below 1.3500 in the next few days.
Trading as usual will be focused on the fundamental side. Monday is pretty quiet so we’ll begin with Tuesday; we have Existing Home Sales and Consumer Confidence appearing in US session. Wednesday will show us New Home Sales and Beige Book, this last release might be the only one to have a real effect on the market because the other ones are going to be ignored by most market movers. Thursday brings us an interesting rate decision by the BoJ which could move the market depending on what is said by bank officials. Finally on Friday we have another release that could move the market widely, GDP for the US. This number is expected to read positive but it could be better than expected, strengthening USD against most crosses.
The technical side is beginning to look interesting once again. 1.3620 has proven to be stronger than we thought, and it will be harder to get to 1.3660 in the next few weeks. Our graphs are showing us that the trend is beginning to look bearish for EUR/USD; we’re seeing the confirmation of strong tops and the shifting in indicators that look to be waiting for a big fall any time soon.
Be patient and pay attention to both fundamental and technical analysis when you create your plan.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
E-mail us at: info@nexumcapital.com
Published on Tue, Apr 24 2007, 15:21 GMT
0
0
Can EUR/USD go higher?
Mon, Apr 16 2007, 18:17 GMT
by Nexum Team
(This pair might need to get lower before it explodes to the north of our graphs)
Fundamentals continue to rule the market
Last week we saw EUR/USD get closer every day to the historical high around 1.3660. This point; now seems to be not far at all, as EUR/USD continues to climb to the top of our graphs and there is nothing that seems strong enough to stop it. However we’ve seen repeatedly that, after a couple of winning sessions by a pair, we see some sessions in which market players take profits and breath for a while before getting into the game again. This gives us as a result, a decrease in price action before the pair retakes bullish trends and continues to go up. We believe EUR/USD is close to getting to this point; maybe around 1.3650, just short of the historical high.
We have an interesting week on the fundamental side of trading. We begin with Retail Sales on Monday, if they are weak the market will react strongly but if they are not weak we might not see a reaction in price action. Monday will also bring us Empire Manufacturing numbers which will probably not change the way the market is moving at the time. On Tuesday we get numbers for CPI and Housing Starts, followed by an important appearance by Fed’s Geithner speaking on EUR/USD issues. Wednesday is pretty quiet for both Euro and USD but the source of movement could be the GBP as the minutes for the BoE’s latest meeting are published. Thursday we see the Philadelphia Fed report, which has had an important effect on EUR/USD on the last couple of times we saw it. Friday will be a very quiet day, watch out for profit taking and marginal movements.
The technical side will not be very useful this week because EUR/USD is now over most important resistances. We have the first weekly resistance over 1.3600 and remember a strong psychological resistance located at 1.3660, in historical high.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
EUR/USD
Euro has had some great sessions in a row, getting every day closer to the historical high. However as we’ve seen before, currencies need to breath and rest a while before they resume the climb to the top. We believe EUR/USD is getting closer to the stage where investors will take profits and we’ll have as a result a temporarily decrease in price action. This decrease will give us the opportunity to go buy the dip and get profits when Euro bulls come back to hunt higher prices. For this week we expect to see EUR/USD have small gains on the beginning of the week and then to come back and close near the opening price. Take advantage of this see saw movements to get several profits along the week. Focus on releases during the first few days of the week and the Philadelphia Fed report on Thursday.
This was an easy one yesterday(SUNDAY) as Gap formed, we pulled out our shorts and got an easy win over a few couple minutes in Asian Sesion… this week we might see some volatily forming, before big guns decide on the direction of Euro for the couple following weeks/months.
Over bought prices are shown all over our graphs, with correction tending to occur in the next couple sessions, we will keep our eyes open for new LONG opportunities, and new dips/corrections that might occur.
Resistances located at:
1.3604
1.3488
Primary support located at
1.3395
1.3260
1.3149
Overbought technicals seem to agree on a SHORT covering for Euro bullishness; however, Fundamentals agree that there might not be a strong correction south of our graphs after all… MACD in very long territory, not looking south for the time being… RSI now showing correction in the near future, and Stochastics showing correction as well very soon.
Our analysis indicates LONG EUR/USD every time it reaches 1.3490:
Long EUR/USD @ 1.3490
- Take Profit 1:1.3520
- Take Profit 2: 1.3590
GBP/USD
The Pound is once again getting pretty close to 2.00 and this reminds us of how strong this psychological barrier has been in the past. Let’s be careful of setting long positions to close to this barrier, however we believe that in the short range we will see GBP/USD over 2.00. And just as in EUR/USD we expect to see price action fall back a bit before it regains strength and continues to soar to the north of our graphs. Important releases this week for the pound include the Minutes and you should also focus on US releases such as Retail Sales, Empire Manufacturing and Philadelphia Fed index.
A very strong GBP is showing a clear northern direction very quickly, while RSI and CCI are quickly moving north, showing a very near correction pattern. There is also an elliot correction in the cards. Be carefull and wait until fundamentals agre on technicals to sell.
Stay GBP/USD @ 0
- Take Profit 1:
- Take Profit 2:
USD/JPY
We thought G7 meeting will benefit the Yen on all its crosses but they decided not to speak directly about currencies, leaving the work to central banks to work the price down to prevent future negative effects on import/export numbers. The Yen is at very low prices against USD, GBP and specially EUR, so we expect some action by central banks to ease this situation. Going Short on USD/JPY, EUR/JPY could be a good idea these days. But be sure to take profits as you see them because carry trade is still a big problem in these trades.
I have 3 words for you guys… “CARRY YOUR TRADE” still!!!! Wait for 120.85 to take some of your biggest profits apart. It seems as if JPY will try and keep this northern activity on the go.
LONG USD/JPY @ 119.00
- Take Profit 1: 119.55
- Take Profit 2: 119.95
Published on Mon, Apr 16 2007, 18:17 GMT
0
0
We're getting closer to historical high
Tue, Apr 10 2007, 14:09 GMT
by Nexum Team
(we expect positive releases for EUR and negative ones for USD)
Fundamentals will be decisive on the run to 1.3600
Last week was pretty calm due to Easter holidays around the globe, but remember that after holidays traders come in with a trigger happy finger. We might begin to see wider movements during the week and volatility will be coming back to normal within a few days. We expect to see a relatively calm market during the first few days but on Wednesday’s US session we’ll see a radical change and EUR/USD might begin to go up for the rest of the week.
This movement to the north of our graphs will be mainly due to fundamentals. Wednesday will be the first day with a relevant release, the minutes of the last FOMC meeting will give us an insight to what is going on with the monetary policy and what we can expect in future meetings. Thursday will be very important; we have the verdict by ECB on the interest rate followed with an appearance by Trichet. We expect to see no movement in the interest rate due to the positive releases Euro zone has been receiving, however we expect to see a hawkish Trichet speaking about the positive outlook on the zones economy. This could easily start an upward trend that will later be confirmed by the bad ‘IPI’ numbers for the US. Friday will also be important as we see a decline on the Trade Balance and an increase on ‘PPI’ for the US. This could easily take EUR/USD over 1.3550 and finish the week with an upward trend ready to explode north wise during the following weeks.
The technical side will not be very useful this week because EUR/USD is now over most important resistances. We have the first weekly resistance over 1.3430 so we still have space to prepare our long positions for what looks to be a bullish week for the EUR/USD.
Remember to be patient and stay focused on important releases throughout the week as we see the beginning of an upward trend being set in front of our eyes. Let’s have a plan and take advantage of every opportunity the market gives us.
Published on Tue, Apr 10 2007, 14:09 GMT
0
0
Quiet last week of the month
Tue, Mar 27 2007, 07:20 GMT
by Nexum Team
No new report available this week
(mixed releases will continue to keep EUR/USD in a tight range)
Keep an eye open for trend setting releases
“EUR/USD has been in a tight range for a while now. We expect to see this pair continue to move this way, but How long can EUR/USD be contained in this tight range? We believe it will remain there for this week but volatility can’t be shut down for much long. We must keep an eye open at all time so we can predict where the breakthrough will send the pair. Remember there are now external factors such as carry traders tending to move from USD/JPY to EUR and GBP. Lets be patient this week and try to take advantage of the few opportunities the market throws at us.” This is what we said last week and we think exactly the same for this one.
However this week has some releases that could increase volatility significantly, for example: Housing reports on Monday, Consumer Confidence for US on Tuesday and later that day IFO for UK. On Wednesday we will receive Current Account for Euro Zone and later we will see some releases for the USD, Durable Goods and an appearance by Bernanke are what jumps out the most. Thursday will bring Jobless rate for Japan and finally on Friday we will see Consumer Confidence for Euro and Personal Income for the US. As you can see there a few releases that have high relevance on the market but after several weeks of low volatility anything can detonate a move that will later transform into the trend we’re looking for.
The Technical side of trading will play a very quiet role this week. We find EUR/USD over the channels, it has been there for a while now, and will oscillate in a range between 1.3430 and 1.3230. Let’s take advantage of this range and get in and out of the market repeatedly so we can accumulate the last profits of the month.
Published on Tue, Mar 27 2007, 07:20 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Wed, Mar 21 2007, 16:01 GMT
“Short range for EUR/USD”
(Lack of strong releases and the FOMC trying not to move the market will keep us in a tight range)
---EUR/USD cant stay in this range for too long.—
EUR/USD has been in a tight range for a while now. We expect to see this pair continue to move this way, but How long can EUR/USD be contained in this tight range? We believe it will remain there for this week but volatility can’t be shut down for much long. We must keep an eye open at all time so we can predict where the breakthrough will send the pair. Remember there are now external factors such as carry traders tending to move from USD/JPY to EUR and GBP. Lets be patient this week and try to take advantage of the few opportunities the market throws at us.
These opportunities were talking about will come mainly from the fundamental side of trading. Tuesday brings us the BoJ rate decision. We expect the rate to remain unchanged but it will be very important to see hawkish comments by bank officials; talking about further hikes on the following months will pretty much calm the market and prevent a Yen sell off. Wednesday seems to be important due to the FOMC decision buy we believe they will remain rates unchanged and then be very careful not to indicate a move to either side on the following months. They will speak the usual and try not to have a significant effect on the price action. Wednesday will also show us the BoE minutes, this could be important for GBP/USD. EUR/USD usually follows important moves by GBP/USD but, as we saw on Monday and Tuesday, this is not happening at the moment so don’t use GBP as an indicator of where EUR is going this week. Fundamentals will be pretty calm for the rest of the week so we can expect oscillating prices on a short range.
Create a plan and stick to it because in a tight range week you won’t want to end up chasing the market and getting trapped for the whole week. Good luck and remember to be patient and remain focused on the important releases.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
Published on Wed, Mar 21 2007, 16:01 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Tue, Mar 13 2007, 16:24 GMT
“Strange week ahead, keep your heads down.”
(We might have a strange volatility week ahead;, as carrytrades downsize and hedging occurs still for JPY. Watch fundamentals and technical supports as well.)
---We could take advantage of current range this week.—
Euro has proven its strength as we saw better than expected numbers for the USD at the end of last week and the pair couldn’t get below 1.3100. Now we have a mixed week, good numbers for both economies will create a short range and give us the opportunity to get in and out of the market repeatedly. We have a week full of releases so lets focus on the fundamental side, however let’s keep in mind our technical analysis as we create our weekly plan, and stick to our daily channels.
The release that jumps out on Monday is the Budget Statement for the US; it is expected to read pretty badly and may be the beginning of a euro bull comeback. Tuesday will be important due to the high relevance of the retail sales nowadays. This release could help the USD get back to levels around 1.3100. Later that day we have Redbook report and Consumer Confidence. Wednesday will bring us Current Account and Industrial Price Index. Thursday seems to be the day with the highest volatility as we get Euro Zone CPI, followed by PPI, Net Long Term Treasury International Capital and later we will receive the Philadelphia Fed Index, expected to push EUR/USD down. Finally on Friday we receive CPI and Consumer Confidence for the US.
EUR/USD is having trouble breaking below 1. 3085, and we expect this to continue. However we expect to see the same thing happening at 1. 3200, so this keeps us in a 120 pip range during the week. This could be a great opportunity to get in and out of the market as many times possible and sum up the profits to make this a great week.
Create a plan and stick to it because in a tight range week you won’t want to end up chasing the market and getting trapped for the whole week. Good luck and remember to be patient and remain focused on the important releases.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
Published on Tue, Mar 13 2007, 16:24 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Wed, Feb 28 2007, 15:56 GMT
“We might not have low volatility”
(Lack of fundamentals might maintain market in tight range…or not!)
---We should still keep an eye on some important releases—
Last week we saw the BoJ hike the interest rate, but USD/JPY rallied to the north. Now, after the release of the minutes, we see the Yen back to where it started last week and with a downward trend that is going to fight a lot of things, including carry traders. It might receive help from the recent upward trend we perceive in Euro and the bearish comments by Allan Greenspan regarding his view of the US economy going into recession on 2007.
We don’t have a lot of fundamentals this week but they are still going to be important. Monday will be pretty calm but keep an eye on releases on the Asian session. On Tuesday we will get numbers for Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, Existing Home Sales for the US and Industrial Production for Japan. Wednesday will be very important due to GDP and New Home Sales for the US. Then, on Thursday, Personal Income, Personal Spending, and Personal Consumption will be the most important releases together with ISM manufacturing and CPI for the Japanese Economy. Friday will be very quiet; the only market mover will be PPI for Euro zone.
We expect to have low volatility throughout the week but we also expect to see short periods of high volatility during Wednesday and Thursday so it will be very important to pay close attention to those days. Now a day, comments from bank officials are becoming very important due to the interest rate differentials and the carry traders. Sunday on the Asian session we saw comments that the Japanese Government is willing to begin talking with US officials about the price of the Yen and the effect on global economy. This should scare away some carry traders but not the BIG experienced ones, who know that the Yen is not getting too strong too fast. However we expect that this kind of talking will beginning pushing USD/JPY to the south of our graphs and it could take EUR/USD higher as well.
The Market is slowing down, but this does not mean we’ll have low volatility on the next month. What this means is that we are getting closer to a turning point. Currencies are on a decisive level and we are waiting to see if fundamentals and technicals will get together to get them higher or lower. Lets stay focused and pay close attention to important releases because it is any day now that we will see some currencies sky rocket. Create your plan and stick to it and that way you will always get profits.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
E-mail us at: info@nexumcapital.com
Published on Wed, Feb 28 2007, 15:56 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Tue, Feb 20 2007, 20:21 GMT
“Calm week ahead”
(We expect low volatility during the week)
--- The big market mover will be BoJ rate decision—
We are upon a week with an extreme lack of fundamentals. Monday is closed on both US and Asian markets due to holidays. The only thing that is keeping us awake is the upcoming rate decision by the BoJ. This decision will be extremely important due to the current market perception on the BoJ weakness. Other than this release we will have to get in and out of this short range market in order to get profits.
Lets begin with Tuesday in our analysis. We will have to be extremely focused on the release of the rate decision by the BoJ. If they hike the rate, we will see a fast appreciation on the Yen that will produce a decrease in USD strength and then benefit the Euro. But if we don’t see a rate hike, market players could see this as a further confirmation that the BoJ has no independence and that they will wait until June’s elections to begin the tightening of the monetary policy. Wednesday will show us the CPI for the US and the Minutes of the last FOMC meeting. Later that day we will receive the Trade Balance of Japan and could have some movements depending on what happens on Tuesday with the interest rate. On Thursday we see a bunch of releases for the Yen but by then the week will be over for the EUR/USD. As you can see, the week is pretty calm for EUR/USD but let’s try to use fundamentals for the Yen to anticipate the move on other mayors and get profits out of it.
On the technical side of trading we can see EUR/USD over the channels in most of our graphs. This means that during this week and the next one we are going to see if the uptrend will continue and take the pair to new heights or if we will se it break back into the channel and begin to head lower. Remember that during low volatility periods indicators begin to loose significance so don’t base your plan on them this week.
Keep both eyes on BoJ and try to benefit from their decision. Look out for market shifts and try to get in and out of the market as fast as you can so you take many small profits instead of getting trapped in this low volatility week.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
E-mail us at: info@nexumcapital.com
Published on Tue, Feb 20 2007, 20:21 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Tue, Feb 13 2007, 17:49 GMT
“Euro looking north”
(Fundamentals will present the opportunity euro bulls were waiting for)
---Lets focus on fundamentals to create our plan for the week—
We begin a week that looks to be the first one of the year in which we will se the EUR/USD defining a trend and beginning to soar to the north of our graphs. Positive releases for Euro and negative ones for USD are the perfect mix to make this happen. We expect the move to begin on Tuesday’s European session and last until Friday’s closure. But, as always, we need some important factors to move our way. These factors include comments by Bernanke and important numbers on European economy.
Let’s begin the week with important releases for the US, Tuesday will show a very weak trade balance and we expect to see euro bulls take advantage of this and begin the anti-dollar move. Wednesday will show numbers for retail sales and we have an appearance by Ben Bernanke later that same day. Thursday will bring some bad numbers by the Philadelphia Fed and Industrial Production as well as a very important appearance by Bernanke speaking about Monetary Policy. We’ll end the week with Production Price Index on Friday and we expect to have EUR/USD over 1.3100.
The Yen continues to have decisive days during the week. The overall outlook is Yen positive this week due to the great releases Japanese Economy is expecting as well as the scrawny data expected for US and UK. If everything comes out as expected we are going to see a mayor move on USD/JPY and GBP/JPY to the south of our graphs. The only thing missing in the mix is hawkish comments by BoJ, but after getting pushed on G7 helping the weak Yen get back on its feet, we think that the BoJ can’t wait much longer before they boost the Yen. Keep an eye on these pairs because they will represent great opportunities on the near future and you have to be ready to take advantage and gather great profits.
In the technical side the thing that jumps out the most is that this week will present the sixth time in a row that EUR/USD tries to break the weekly channel. The Resistance located at 1.3040 has proven to be stronger than we thought so, but remember that the best thing to break strong technical resistances is strong fundamentals. This week is full of those so expect to see the pair heading over 1.3100 before the weekend. Keep in mind supports and resistances along the week so you can set entry and exit points. Remember to be patient and follow your plan so you can get great profits.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
E-mail us at: info@nexumcapital.com
Published on Tue, Feb 13 2007, 17:49 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Wed, Feb 7 2007, 16:22 GMT
“Rate week for Euro and GBP”
(Mayors will have important releases during the week)
--- We are upon a very important week for all mayors—
This week we’ll have to focus our attention to the fundamental side of trading. Starting with EUR/USD, the most important event this week will be the rate decision on Thursday by the ECB. Later on that same day, we’ll see the press conference by Trichet. Two things can happen this day: the first one is that they hike the rate and wee se EUR/USD begin to soar to the north of our graphs. If this happens, ECB officials will get worried about the EUR/JPY so we could se Trichet trying to speak dovish to cut the move by euro against JPY. The second thing we can see this day is that ECB doesn’t hike the rate, if this happens Trichet better speak hawkish and begin to state that the rate hike is not that far away because if euro bulls lose hope on help by ECB we could see the pair fall back to prices below 1.2500.
If you are planning to trade on the Yen you will also have to focus on fundamentals because they are going to be a decisive factor during this week. Tuesday will show a load of releases regarding Japanese economy but the really important releases will be on Thursday when officials of the BoJ, including the governor of the bank, will appear on press conferences throughout the session. Market players will be expecting to hear some hawkish comments by the BoJ so that the Yen begins getting back to normal levels. Remember that a rate hike is every day closer but Yen bulls need to hear some positive news from bank officials so that USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY begin falling.
Technical analysis will be important this week. Graphs for EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/JPY are showing some interesting signals. Most of them are showing a turning point for the Yen. All we need is some hawkish arguments by the BoJ later on the week. If this happens we would be able to see a fall in prices for all of these pairs and get the Yen into normal levels before the market begins to move normally. Right now, market players are ignoring some great releases, such as housing numbers for UK, because they believe its better to wait for the readjustment of the Yen and then all pairs can continue in their anti-dollar movements. Overbought positions, double tops, and strong resistances are just some of the reasons technical analysis is becoming so important this week. However if you’re thinking about trading the GBP this week, I would recommend at least waiting until Thursday so you can dip buy after the BOE doesn’t hike the rate.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
E-mail us at: info@nexumcapital.com
Published on Wed, Feb 7 2007, 16:22 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Wed, Jan 31 2007, 17:55 GMT
“USD is recovering strength”
(The Dollar seems to be getting pretty strong as data is favoring a decline in EUR/USD)
--- When everything is expected to go great we need to be extra careful—
The US Dollar is expected to have a great week. Great data, hawkish comments by the FED on the upcoming rate decision and Treasury Yields and Stock Market rising seem to be the perfect condition for the USD to take action and pull the Euro down. But we need to be extra careful in this type of situations because when everything is expected to come out great, any sudden change to the downside could create a momentum shift and take EUR/USD higher. Also remember that most of these highly anticipated releases are already in the price action so we need keep an eye for any unexpected change in the releases during the week.
Fundamentals will determine the tone of the week and we expect it to be all positive for the greenback. We’ll begin on Monday with releases for the Yen such as jobless rate and Personal Income. Tuesday will show numbers for the US Consumer Confidence. Wednesday will be the most important day of the week due to the high importance of releases. First we have Annualized GDP as well as Personal Consumption, then we will see Ben Bernanke talking about the rate decision and how the FED sees the future for the USD. We expect to hear the same as always, looking close at inflation, which will have a positive reaction on USD and JPY, or looking close at housing slowdown, which will be negative for USD and JPY, so let’s pay close attention to this release. Thursday will show numbers for Personal Consumption and ISM for the US. Finally on Friday we have Non-Farm Payrolls, which have had an important impact on price action on the past few months.
Technical analysis will be hard to use this week due to the lack of volatility of the past few days. Any sudden spike due to strong fundamentals will make indicators fall out of place so try not to focus on them. However use supports and resistances to look for turning points for EUR/USD.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
E-mail us at: info@nexumcapital.com
These are our Daily Predictions. For any question or suggestion don’t doubt and contact me at nexumlive@nexumcapital.com
Published on Wed, Jan 31 2007, 17:55 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Wed, Jan 24 2007, 13:51 GMT
“EUR/USD will have a calm week”
(The lack of stunning releases might make technicals more important)
--- The market is still waiting for JPY to catch up—
Last week we saw the BoJ stating that interest rates will remain unchanged for the month. The problem was that the market saw that as a lack of independence from the actual government of Japan. This will need to change during this week in order to make the Yen recover from the last few months of depreciation. BoJ has the opportunity to show they are really in charge of monetary policy and that the future of the Yen is better than what the market is speculating, this opportunity comes with the release of the minutes of last weeks meeting and the appearance of the governor of the BoJ on Tuesday. As for the other pairs, they seem to be waiting for the Yen to catch up. We can see how GBP received great housing numbers and still didn’t rally against other mayors. Euro and USD also seem to be extra calm waiting for something to happen with the Yen.
For EUR/USD we will need to focus on the following releases: Monday will show the minutes of the BoJ and the appearance of the governor of the same bank. Here we need to pay close attention to what is said because they will try to recover the market’s trust in order to bring the Yen to higher prices. Wednesday will also be important on the Yen; we have releases such as Trade Balance, which will come out much better than last month’s. Thursday will bring us the existing home sales for the US and a load of releases for the Yen. Finally on Friday we will see the Euro zone M3 reports.
Technical analysis will be important this week. Graphs for EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/JPY are showing some interesting signals. Most of them are showing a turning point for the Yen. All we need is some hawkish arguments by the BoJ later on the week. If this happens we would be able to see a fall in prices for all of these pairs and get the Yen into normal levels before the market begins to move normally. Right now, market players are ignoring some great releases, such as housing numbers for UK, because they believe its better to wait for the readjustment of the Yen and then all pairs can continue in their anti-dollar movements. Overbought positions, double tops, and strong resistances are just some of the reasons technical analysis is becoming so important this week.
Be patient and wait for important releases to jump in the market and get great profits. Have a clear plan and use your technical analysis to set entry and exit points. Good luck and have a great week earning great profits.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD is getting ready to change the trend and begin going the other way. Although this will be a calm week, we expect to see a change in tendencies after the BoJ releases the minutes of the last meeting. Euro will need a strong release on IFO because weak releases will make ECB pause longer than just a month for the next rate hike. If IFO shows big numbers, the move will begin this week but if it is weak we will see EUR/USD fall a bit further before they change direction and begin going to the north of our graphs.
Published on Wed, Jan 24 2007, 13:51 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Wed, Dec 13 2006, 15:49 GMT
“Strong fundamentals will run the week”
(Data for GBP and JPY will strongly influence EUR/USD)
--- BoJ might be forced to hike rates this week—
We’ve seen, for a while now, how the JPY has lost territory against all mayors. This might change during the week as the BoJ meets to decide on the rate hike, creating a move by the EUR against the USD. We will have to keep an eye on releases regarding the Pound and Yen as they could set the tone as where the EUR/USD is going for the next few weeks. We should also remember that strong data for the USD and conservative statements by ECB officials gave greenback bulls a chance to get back into play and take back some of the lost territory during last week. This week we should focus on fundamentals as the week is full of them.
Well begin the week with the release of the Import Price Index for Japan on Monday. Tuesday will bring us the Empire manufacturing report for the US as well as the Trade Balance and Consumer Confidence for Japan, these releases will begin to set the tone on how volatile the week will be. We expect to see an increment of volatility as the rate decision begins to be anticipated. Wednesday will be very important for the USD as it receives reports for PPI, Tics, Industrial Production, and the Beige Book throughout the day. The BoJ will also meet on Wednesday and the release of the rate decision has no specific time but it will surely be a market mover. Right now the rate hike possibility is at a 50/50 but we believe that the BoJ will raise the rates and we will se prices fall on USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. Thursday will be also interesting as we see CPI and Oil Stocks. Finally on Friday the Michigan consumer sentiment will be released and we might end the week with mayors breathing a little bit after the big moves expected to happen on Thursday.
There are several interesting things on the technical analysis, for example the channel penetration on the weekly graph for EUR/USD, but remember that when we have strong fundamentals we have to ignore technicals until the releases move the market and indicators get significance back.
Patience will be a key factor to help us win this week. Volatility will give us the possibility of taking great profits for our clients. Let’s focus on important releases and wait until the market calms down after Thursday to begin using technical analysis.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD might be getting reedy to turn around and head back up. Strong data and conservative comments by ECB sent the pair lower last week, but it can change direction this week. Strong data for the GBP and JPY could boost the Euro and send it back over 1.3200. The critical days will be Wednesday and Thursday, on Wednesday we receive data for the US and on Thursday the BoJ will decide on the rate hike. Be patient and don’t use technical analysis due to the high importance of fundamentals this week
Published on Wed, Dec 13 2006, 15:49 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Tue, Dec 5 2006, 18:13 GMT
“CENTRAL BANKERS TAKE THE STAGE”
(High prices in EUR/USD will begin to have a negative effect on trade balance)
--- Will/Could ECB drag EUR/USD lower to help exports?—
Last week we saw what seems to be the prolongation of the upward move by anti-dollar currencies. The EUR and GBP moved widely (again) against the USD making dollar-bears very happy; this might be over in the short term, as we expect to see a retrace back to levels below 1.3200 before it can fight to get over 1.3500 and then begin to think about 1.4000 well into 2007.
Dollar weakness will not help a lot but we think that central bankers in both ECB and BoE will try and ease the upward trend that could end up ‘hammering’ their export numbers. Remember that 1.3500 is well in reach for the EUR/USD in 2006 but a fall back below 1.3200 is needed in order to regroup forces and fight the dollar bulls in 2007 and find new heights. This week is going to show us if euro officials believe EUR/USD is too high or if they are going to continue being hawkish and pushing the pair higher. Fundamentals are going to play a key role on the short term so let’s focus on what will happen throughout the week; on Monday we have Euro Zone PPI, on Tuesday the ISM Non-Manufacturing for the US and PMI for both Germany and EZ be the most important releases of the day. Wednesday will depend on what the market believes that ECB and BoE will do on the following day. Thursday will have all eyes on Trichet as he speaks on interest rate issues (rising their rate another quarter point) and gives us a peak of what the central bank thinks of the pair being well over 1.3000 and looking to quickly attain 1.3500. Thursday will also read positive jobless claims numbers for the US, however this number could be ignored if we have strong data by the ECB. Friday looks positive for the USD as the euro receives poor data and the US presumes to get better in the employment sector.
Technical analysis remains the same as last week; CCI and MACD are shouting long EUR/USD while Stockastics are in overbought territory. This is the result of wide movements in a short period of time. We recommend sticking to the fundamental analysis and try to use the technical side to set the limits and decide when to get in and out of the game. Lets be patient and PAY ATTENTION to what happens at the press conference after the ECB meeting because this will show us if the market will be looking down to 1.3100 or up to 1.3500 and then 1.4000 on 2007.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
E-mail us at: info@nexumcapital.com
Published on Tue, Dec 5 2006, 18:13 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Tue, Nov 28 2006, 17:51 GMT
“Finally our prediction of EUR/USD over 1.3100 is done”
(Will EUR/USD continue going up or retrace below 1.3000?)
--- EUR/USD might be looking up to 1.3500—
Last week was supposed to be pretty calm but we saw the market move widely. EUR/USD broke over the yearly high and is now trying to maintain the move over 1.3100. Data throughout the week will help us determine if well see the pair heading higher or if it will need a to get back before it can get to 1.3500.
Fundamentals will begin until Tuesday when we receive the German consumer Confidence along with the Durable Goods for the US. Bernanke will speak about Economic Outlook at New York; this will be his first statement since the 1.3000 mark was crossed. On Wednesday we will have to pay attention to the GDP annualized and the Core PCE as well as the Beige Book for the last FOMC meeting. On Thursday we have a flood of releases for the Euro which in general seem to be positive for the currency. On the side of the USD we will receive the jobless claims report. We expect Friday to be pretty calm, the movements this day will be the result of what happens during the week. Lets look for the EUR/USD to get back to levels around 1.3000 before it begins to get higher, however don’t discard the possibility of the pair reaching higher without a prior retrace. Other important fundamental releases will be regarding the JPY, which moved widely against the USD but failed to get profits against EUR and GBP. This week we have BoJ officials appearing almost every day and we expect them to confirm what was said on the last few weeks, that the rate hike is close and that Yen strength will be assured.
Technical analysis is showing us the great possibility of having EUR/USD get over 1.3500; even 1.4000 seems to be in the range. But before, we need to look for a setback so that indicators can be back in place for another step up, well you can now mark our words (again) as we say EUR/USD will be well over 1.3500 sooner rather than later.
Lets be patient and stay focused to look if EUR/USD will continue going up without a retrace or if we will see a setback to 1.3000 before we can reach higher. Lets continue getting profits on this last week of the month.
Published on Tue, Nov 28 2006, 17:51 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Tue, Nov 14 2006, 17:13 GMT
“Euro bulls will continue pushing the pair higher”
(The market is beginning to gaze at 1.3000 yet again)
--- Weak US data could boost the Euro—
Last week was a great one indeed, we got as close to 1.2900 as we’ve been in a long time. Now its time to break this number and get over our VERY STRONG resistance located at 1.2930. To break this one we’ll need all the help we can get, coming from weak data for the US or rate hike by the BoJ (highly unlikely, but remains possible) or help by an anti-dollar move by other mayors. Right now we have the EUR/USD back testing supports at 1.2800, we are pretty confident that this is just a short term adjustment and that by Tuesday or Wednesday we’ll be back trying to get over 1.2900.
Monday will be pretty quiet with only one important release, the monthly budget statement. Tuesday, however, will give us a load of information regarding both economies. We’ll begin with Europe; Germany receives the ZEW surveys and the PPI, as well as the GDP for Euro Zone. For the US we will see the Retail Sales, which have proven to be important in the last few months. Wednesday’s important release will be the publication of the minutes by the FOMC; which we expect will harm the USD and could take the EUR/USD finally over 1.2900. Also on Wednesday we recommend you pay close attention to the rate decision by the BoJ because if they raise the rate we may see a sudden and wide move by anti-dollar currencies such as the euro. On Thursday we expect to receive a bad number in the Initial Jobless Claims and an incredibly poor one on the Net Foreign Security Purchases, these will further confirm the upward trend for this pair. Friday will bring us an improved number in the European trade balance as well as a fall in the Housing indicator for the US, Friday also marks the beginning of the G20 meeting so lets pay close attention to see if we break above 1.2930, because if we do, 1.3000 will come in a whisper.
With the fall we had on Monday, technical indicators are back ready to push the EUR/USD over 1.2900. They’re in position to give confidence to euro bulls and market players so that their long positions help the pair get enough strength to fight the strong resistances it will encounter. Let’s begin with the strong psychological barrier located at 1.2900, we’ve seen profit taking and short positions being placed there and pushing the pair right back just as it gets close. Then if we manage to get over this barrier we will encounter the strongest of all resistances, we have the roof of our monthly channel and a strong trend resistance that goes back for a long time located at 1.2930. This will be the real test for the EUR, if it breaks it we are going to get to 1.3000 or higher in the short term. Remember we’ve been talking about 1.3000 as our goal for 2006 since December 2005 so lets remain positive and get profits along the way.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
E-mail us at: info@nexumcapital.com
Published on Tue, Nov 14 2006, 17:13 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Tue, Nov 7 2006, 16:56 GMT
“EUR/USD will continue getting higher”
(EUR/USD is looking to maintain the upward trend)
--- Mid Term Elections may have an impact on the market—
Last week we saw the EUR/USD fighting to maintain the gains of previous sessions. It did great until Friday when a revision of Septembers Non-Farm Payrolls and positive ones for October sent the EUR/USD back to the week’s low. This week we expect to se euro bulls get back in the game and fight to regain the lost territory and position the euro over 1.2800.
This week we have the mid term election in the US, we expect it to have a negative effect on the Dollar. The reason we expect this is because the recent poles show an increasing advantage by the Democrats, this means that the US will have a divided congress, on the other hand if the result is a majority party ruling congress we will see the USD strengthen against all mayors. Elections are on Tuesday so pay close attention to any release on the results because the market will react immediately. Some other important releases will come on Thursday, we have Trade Balance for the US and we have the expected rate hike by the BoE. This decision by the BoE may be a market mover because it will have a direct impact on the USD. We expect euro and other mayors such as the Yen to benefit from an increase in the British interest rate. Finally on Friday we have a bunch of information for the euro, most of it looks positive so were looking to a great ending of the week with EUR/USD probably over 1.2800. Lets stay positive and remain focused in order to take advantage of the opportunities this week is giving us.
This week we should base our analysis on the fundamental side, however it is always important to look at the technical indicators to find the possible turning points in the week. We begin the week with the EUR/USD getting in the channel of our 4 hour graph, this could help the daily candle close over the channel and with this the EUR/USD will resume its upward movements. Stochastic, RSI and CCI are starting to look very positive on the 4 hour graph; this could boost the pair and help other graphs begin to look as bullish as this one. Remember to be patient and wait for the best entry price the market is willing to give you, take advantage of opportunities and lets get great profits during the week.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
E-mail us at: info@nexumcapital.com
Published on Tue, Nov 7 2006, 16:56 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Wed, Nov 1 2006, 15:57 GMT
“Euro might be able to keep last week’s gains”
(EUR/USD is beginning to look more volatile but still not excessively much)
--- Keep an eye at ECB and Non Farm Payrolls for US—
Last week we finally saw the USD losing some of its strength. This came from the weak comments by the FED as well as the expected poor number reported for GDP. On the other side we saw Euro receiving some better than expected info, so that accounted for the EUR/USD getting over 1.2730. Let’s remain positive and wait for a further confirmation of the upward trend looking for 1.2800 and higher. This last move certainly helped us improve our results for October and gets us going with a winning attitude to make November another profitable month.
This week we’ll se rate decision by ECB; witch will probably remain unchanged. The problem is that with last week’s strong numbers the market got the idea that a hike is not that far away so if we don’t see an increment or at least some aggressive comments on the future of the interest rate, EUR/USD could be pulled down. The week will begin to look interesting as of Tuesday when we get the German Retail Sales followed by Consumer Confidence for both Euro Zone and the US. On Wednesday we’ll receive the number for ISM manufacturing. Thursday will bring ECB’s decision on interest rate and it will be very important to pay close attention to what Trichet says in the press conference, as well to what happens to Non-Farm Productivity and unemployment numbers for the US. On Friday we will see Non-Farm Payrolls which are expected to read better than last month but still look pretty bad. We will have to be patient and wait to see how the market reacts to this number. Also remember that we’ve seen disappointing numbers for the US during the last few weeks, including GDP, Richmond Fed, etc. So it is possible to see a worse than expected number in Non Farm Payrolls as well. Let’s keep an eye on key releases and use them to get profits along this last/first week of the month.
On the Technical side we see EUR/USD with the possibility of getting much higher. The pair is well over the 4 hour channel and Monday’s candle opened over the daily channel. This could mean a further move to the upside in the short term. Stochastic will be hard to read because it moved widely with last week’s sudden move. However MACD is looking very positive and CCI also supports the idea of a sustained upward trend during the next week or even longer.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
E-mail us at: info@nexumcapital.com
Published on Wed, Nov 1 2006, 15:57 GMT
0
0
EUR/USD Briefing
Tue, Oct 17 2006, 16:31 GMT
“EUR/USD continues to trade in short range”
(The mixture of releases gives us small space for volatility)
--- Lets move fast to get our profits—
The USD has strengthened during the last few weeks due to the surprisingly improving economic releases. Now, with oil going down, consumer confidence going up, and rate hikes stable, euro has to fight harder than ever to get as high as we’ve seen it during 2006. This will only be a matter of time, remember the US is growing at a slower pace every day and that Euro zone is trying to consolidate its economic strength. Let’s stay positive and wait for the market to move our way and give us great profits.
This week is packed with fundamentals; Monday has central bankers Trichet and Bernanke speaking during the day. Tuesday will be important due to the release of the ZEW surveys as well as PPI and Net Foreign Securities Purchase for the US (giving us a peak at inflation in the US). The euro will see Trade Balance on Wednesday and the dollar will receive CPI and Housing indicators. The minutes of the BoE meeting will also be published on Wednesday and this can have an upward effect on EUR/USD. On Thursday we will se the BoJ governor speaking, as well as the jobless indicators for the US.
We continue to see EUR/USD below our channels. However indicators are starting to change direction. We have stochastics, on our daily and 4 hour graph, ready to boost the EUR/USD upward. The pair is fighting to get in the channel one more time and if it does we will se the price go up substantially during this or next week. We’re still waiting for the break after the low volatility. Stay focused and try to get in and out of the market very fast in order to get profits during the week in this low volatility period.
Problems with North Korea seem to be getting solved in a peaceful manner. This is great for us because the currency market will step back to normality and stop speculating about a nuclear war. Yen seems to be getting back on its feet and with this, other mayors will begin to regain confidence and start to battle the recently strengthened USD. Trading these days will require full attention due to the amount of releases as well as the speeches given throughout the week by central bank officials.
Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.
Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?
E-mail us at: info@nexumcapital.com
Published on Tue, Oct 17 2006, 16:31 GMT
Archive
- Fundamentals continue to be the main determinant on trend setting
Published On Tue, Aug 26 2008, 07:36 GMT - Euro to Raise Interest Rates?
Published On Tue, Jul 1 2008, 08:57 GMT - Will USD rally come to an end?
Published On Tue, Jun 3 2008, 12:31 GMT - Euro climbs on dovish FED
Published On Wed, May 28 2008, 10:39 GMT - EUR/USD continues in range
Published On Tue, Apr 29 2008, 07:21 GMT
Nexum Capital Markets
| Rio Missouri Col Valle, Monterrey, Nuevo León 01800-00
http://www.nexumcapital.com/ | info@nexumcapital.com
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
Nexum Capital Markets, nor any of its representatives, accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information here in contained nor for any forecasts or recommendations. Nexum Capital Markets shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Nexum Capital Markets that you will profit from the strategies herein or that your losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. This electronic communication and any files transmitted with it, or attached to it, are confidential and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to who it is addressed and may contain information that is confidential, legally privileged, protected by privacy laws, or otherwise restricted from disclosure to anyone else. If you are not the intended recipient or the person responsible for delivering the e-mail to the intended recipient, be advised that you have received this e-mail in error, and that any use, dissemination, forwarding, printing, or copying of this e-mail is strictly prohibited. If you received this e-mail in error, please return the e-mail to the sender, delete it from your computer and destroy any printed copy of it. Although our company attempts to sweep e-mail and attachments for viruses, it does not guarantee that either are virus-free and accepts no liability for any damage sustained as a result of viruses. Some comments have been translated by us and some comments have been aquired from other sources, which are stated at the end of each chapter. All comments and opinions are solely those of the writer and are not in any way comments or opinions of Nexum Capital or its affiliates. Additional information is available upon request. Information in this publication has been obtained from sources believed by the writer to be reliable, but the accuracy, completeness and interpretation are not guaranteed and have not been independently verified. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and, due to the rapidly changing nature of currency markets, may quickly become outdated. The opinions and information presented do not constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities or options on securities.Interested in forex trading? forex brokerage firms!
GET CASH BACK FOR YOUR TRADES! Learn more about the Pip Rebate Program
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. FXstreet.com has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXstreet.com, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXstreet.com will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
©2009 "FXstreet.com. The Forex Market" All Rights Reserved.