Technical analysis will be away until Tuesday 1st September
EUR
Comment: Bouncing from Fibonacci retracement in the middle of the previous ‘triangle’ consolidation pattern and a weekly close above 1.4300 should turn momentum decidedly bullish. The Euro is no longer overbought and consensus opinion is very much in favour of the US dollar. We feel that price action from last week’s high is corrective and that the long term trend to US dollar weakness will resume shortly.
Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.4265/1.4200; stop below 1.4080. Short term target 1.4320, then 1.4400.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Yesterday’s ‘spike high’/’doji’ adds weight to our view that currencies are looking for direction (and that Yen crosses ought to form tops imminently). We shall continue to watch for signs of topping and reversing in the weekly charts.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 135.80 but only if prepared to add to 137.00; stop well above 138.00. Short term targets 134.00, maybe 133.00/132.50.
GBP
Comment: Bouncing from Fibonacci support, in the middle of the ‘triangle’ and above a large Ichimoku ‘cloud’. Now we hope prices will hold and closing above the top of the ‘triangle’ with a weekly close above 1.6800 adding considerably to bullish momentum.
Strategy: Strategy remains unchanged: attempt small longs at 1.6570; stop below 1.6390. First target 1.6600, then 1.7000.
JPY
Comment: Hovering above 95.00 after a big reversal from last week’s high at 97.79, undoing moves here and in many markets caused by US Non-Farm Payroll numbers. A weekly close below 94.75 would turn momentum bearish. Also watch Yen crosses for potential reversal weekly candles.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 95.30 but only if prepared to add to 96.00; stop above 96.80. Short term target 95.00, then 94.00/93.55.
