EUR
Comment: Very disappointing as we drop back through the thinnest point of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’. Expect several moves either side of 1.3100 this week.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.3015; stop below 1.2885. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3305 for 1.3400 short term and 1.3600 further out.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Not quite sure what to do next as we retrace half of this year’s rally. Plan A would involve dropping quickly to 122.00 where a an interim base will form. Plan B would be a week or two of random moves either side of 124.50.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny shorts at 124.85; stop above 126.25. Short term target 122.50.
GBP
Comment: Messy and disappointing but holding up a little better than some other currencies. Only a weekly close above 1.5000 will get a decent rally going, so until then expect random moves which are not contained by chart levels.
Strategy: Possibly attempt longs at 1.4545; stop below 1.4380. Short term target 1.4700, eventually 1.5000.
JPY
Comment: Dollar/Yen has retraced 38% of this year’s rally and carefully poised at the top of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’, and has dragged Yen crosses down by more than we had allowed for. Expect JPY to try and hold above the ‘cloud’ this morning, maybe all day. Later we continue to favour a test of the 93.50 area.
Strategy: Possibly attempt shorts at 96.00; stop above 98.15. Add to shorts on a break below 95.50 for 93.55.
