EUR
Comment: Closing above the thinnest point of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and the 9-day moving average (struggling with the 26-day one), with a ‘bullish engulfing’ candle on the weekly candle. Momentum has yet to turn bullish but should do when we break above the top of the large ‘flag’.
Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.3145; stop below 1.3000. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3305 for 1.3400 short term and 1.3600 further out.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Consolidating at current levels and hopefully the thickening Ichimoku ‘cloud’ will keep on nudging it up. Momentum is nowhere near bullish and the long term outlook is for broadly sideways work this year.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 127.15; stop well below 126.00. Add to long above 129.30 for 130.00 short term and maybe 134.00 further out.
GBP
Comment: Consolidating above the top of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’, closing above the 26-day moving average, in what can be seen as a ‘bullish engulfing’ candle. Bullish momentum might increase if we hold above 1.4600 today though really a weekly close above 1.5000 is essential for a decent rally to really get going.
Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.4555; stop below 1.4380. Short term target 1.4700, eventually 1.5000.
JPY
Comment: Re-testing Friday’s low, the 61% Fibonacci retracement and the 9 and 26-day moving averages have crossed to a sell. We have adjusted our view and now see April’s high at 101.45 as an interim top so that prices are likely to hold below here for another couple of months or so. The next step should be a bout of generalised US dollar weakness so that dollar/Yen drops towards 93.50.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 96.65, adding to 98.00; stop well above 98.50. Add to shorts on a break below 96.50 for 95.75 short term, probably 93.50 further out.
