EUR
Comment: Retreating from the top of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’, holding above the 26-day moving average. A sustained break above 1.3400 might turn momentum bullish, keeping in mind that the Euro is not at all overbought, and one-month at-the-money implied volatility looks set to base against the 14.00% area.
Strategy: Buy at 1.3250; stop below 1.3100. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3400 for 1.3600 and then more.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Retreating by more than expected, here and in a whole array of Yen crosses. Channel support and the 26-day moving average might stem the tide today. If they do not, and a weekly close below 130.00, would force us to review our medium term outlook.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 130.45; stop below 129.00. Short term target 132.00 then 133.50.
GBP
Comment: Hovering cautiously under the psychological level at 1.5000 and could do with a bit of help from other major currencies to trade through here.
Strategy: Buy at 1.4865; stop below 1.4550. Short term target 1.4960/1.5000, then more.
JPY
Comment: Retreating by a bit more than we had allowed for, but nevertheless we continue to feel prices ought to form an interim low point imminently. Bullish momentum has evaporated completely and the US dollar is no longer overbought.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 98.45; stop below 97.50. First target 99.15/99.50, then 100.00.
