EUR
Comment: A small ‘hammer’ on the weekly chart at the bottom of the interminable downward-sloping ‘wedge’ formation. Let’s see if the Euro can rally through the moving averages up to daily trendline resistance around 1.2775.
Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.2635; stop below 1.2450. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.2775 for 1.2900 and then 1.3000.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Consolidating last week above the mid-point of the wide trading band that has been holding since October. We continue to favour a squeeze back up towards 126.00 and probably, eventually, the 130.00 area.
Strategy: Buy at 124.00; stop below 121.50. Add to longs on a sustained break above 126.35 for 128.45 and probably 130.00.
GBP
Comment: Little to add as we continue trading rather heavily within the downward-sloping ‘wedge’ formation. Quantative Easing and dodgy banks are really not helping either.
Strategy: Attempt tiny longs at 1.4100; stop below 1.3950. Short term target 1.4300, eventually 1.4600.
JPY
Comment: Last week’s ‘doji’ candle adds weight to our view that the direction for the Yen is very uncertain indeed and that the rally since late January is probably over. This is because the move was 1.6 times the size of December’s rally and at the 50% Fibonacci retracement area of the previous decline.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 98.25; stop above 99.75. Add to shorts on a sustained break below 97.00 for 96.00 and probably 95.00.
