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Daily Technical Analysis
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EUR: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.4635
Mon, Sep 1 2008, 06:56 GMT
by Nicole Elliott
EUR
Comment: Just holding above the recent low at 1.4570 after the biggest monthly price drop ever. Nevertheless we remain within normal retracement parameters and the long term trend to a weaker US dollar. Bearish momentum has almost vanished completely and the Euro is very oversold. We continue to watch warily for signs of basing this week.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.4635; stop below 1.4570. Short term target 1.4800, then 1.4900.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Having given up 61% of the previous rally it is just clinging to the weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’. The monthly close below 160.60 should add to current strong bearish momentum although the Euro is very oversold against the Yen (and other Yen crosses are similar, the KRW/JPY and NZD/JPY almost at March’s lows). For today expect cautious consolidation above 158.00 with rallies to 160.00 seen as selling opportunities for further big declines this month.
Strategy: Sell at 158.85, adding to 160.00; stop above 162.15. Short term target 157.25, then 156.00.
GBP
Comment: The biggest monthly collapse since 1992 and losing ground against all major currencies the only exception the South Korean won which has also been hammered. Cable is more oversold than it has been since September 2000 and on the Bank of England’s Trade Weighted basis weaker than it has been since November 1996. This is obviously unsustainable but with ‘helpful’ comments from UK authorities who only knows when enough is seen to be enough. Stand aside if possible and don’t believe everything you hear.
Strategy: Possibly attempt the tiniest of longs at 1.8045; stop below 1.7985. Short term target 1.8200, then 1.8400.
JPY
Comment: The ‘evening star’ candle on the monthly charts adds weight to our view that the move above 110.00 was an ‘extension’. The weekly close at 108.25, the lowest of the month, was slightly short of what we had hoped but a daily one this week should complete a small ‘head-and-shoulders’ top.
Strategy: Sell at 108.5 0, adding to 109.00; stop above 109.35. Short term target 108.25/108.00, then 107.25.
Download Full EUR Technical Analysis
Published on Mon, Sep 1 2008, 07:07 GMT
Archive
- EUR: Possibly attempt small longs at 1.2675; stop below 1.2500
Published On Mon, Dec 1 2008, 07:35 GMT - EUR: Strategy remains unchanged: attempt longs at 1.2925, adding to 1.2800; stop below 1.2650
Published On Fri, Nov 28 2008, 07:18 GMT - EUR: Attempt longs at 1.2925, adding to 1.2800; stop below 1.2650
Published On Thu, Nov 27 2008, 07:28 GMT - EUR: Attempt longs at 1.2975, adding to 1.2800; stop below 1.2650
Published On Wed, Nov 26 2008, 07:40 GMT - EUR: Attempt longs on a drop to 1.2700, adding to 1.2600; stop below 1.2400
Published On Tue, Nov 25 2008, 07:50 GMT
Mizuho Corporate Bank
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http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk | Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk
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