EUR
Comment: Looking for direction as we hold in a relatively narrow range above the 9-day moving average. Expect more of the same with chart levels less likely to hold the longer we stick to current levels.
Strategy: Buy at 1.2805; stop well below 1.2775. Short term target 1.2900, then 1.3000.
EUR/JPY
Comment: A small ‘double top’ at 150.45 suggests the cross will hold below here today and maybe all week. Allow for more consolidation between 150.50 and 151.50. Note the cross is no longer overbought and bullish momentum has eased.
Strategy: Strategy remains unchanged: attempt small longs at 150.80/150.50; stop below 150.20. Short term target 151.25/151.45
GBP
Comment: Pulling back sharply from important long term resistance at 1.9100/1.9145. Note that Cable is not overbought and that momentum is neutral. Open interest has eased from record levels. For this morning expect some sort of attempt at basing around the 1.8925 area with relatively small moves all day.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.8945; stop well below 1.8900. Short term target 1.9100/1.9145.
JPY
Comment: Increasingly sharp intra-day moves as this pair consolidates inside the Ichimoku ‘cloud’, below the 26-day average. Momentum is only just bearish and the US dollar is not oversold. For today allow for more consolidation between 117.00 and 118.00, noting that a close below 117.00 should increase downside momentum by enough to test weekly trendline support at 116.60 this week.
Strategy: Sell at 117.90/118.20; stop above 118.60. Short term target 117.20, then the more important 116.55 area.
