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It was a strange day of trading on Friday for the dollar
Mon, Aug 18 2008, 06:44 GMT
by Cornelius Luca
It was a strange day of trading on Friday for the dollar, as the crosses had the upper hand. The yen crosses fell further as expected, and EUR/CHF collapsed in view of the weekend risk from Russia. But things apparently cooled off now. The dollar climbed to new highs for the uptrend versus the majors, but held its gains only against the euro and yen. And the commodity currencies faired well to relatively well despite sliding commodity prices. Following a pullback today, the dollar should attempt to pad its gains.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar fell for the fifth straight week and closed below its rising trendline. The pair remains on track of a double top targeting the 1.4600 area. My model remains short since July 22. The immediate risk is higher. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4755. This is followed by 1.4832 and 1.4950. Initial support is seen at 1.4640. Below the target at 1.4600, support now comes at 1.4505 and 1.4440.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen surged on Friday to a new high for the year and my model remains long. The Gann pivot at 110.35 will give direction, but the initial risk is down. Immediate resistance is now at 110.35 from my 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85. The next key level remains 111.60 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10. Strong support is now pegged at109.85. Further strong support is at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar consolidated after sliding to a new low for the downtrend. The selling pressure should pause today. In the medium term, cable remains on track for the target of a long-term head-and-shoulders pattern that targets the 1.7550 area. The immediate risk is higher. Initial resistance now comes at 1.8700. Above 1.8786, further resistance comes at 1.8867. Below the immediate support at 1.8624, there is a pivot low at 1.8514. Further supports are seen at 1.8480 and 1.8405.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc rallied to a new high for the uptrend on Friday before surrendering most of the losses. My model remains long but the immediate risk is down. Initial support is pegged at 1.0890. Below 1.0855, support is now seen at 1.0725. Immediate resistance is at 1.1008. Above 1.1055, key resistance comes at 1.1185.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Published on Mon, Aug 18 2008, 06:47 GMT
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