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Daily Market Commentary

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The market was not all that impressed

Tue, Jul 15 2008, 06:41 GMT
by Cornelius Luca

GFT

The market was not all that impressed about the Treasury and Federal Reserve’s plans to support Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the dollar’s early recovery was either trimmed or reversed. Expect some selling pressure to persist, and keep an eye on the shaky US indices. Also, there is a set of important US data, which includes retails sales and PPI.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar fell from a 2 ½-month but recovered some of its losses and there is no bearish reversal on the chart. My model remains long. The short-term outlook is now slightly bullish, but his can change in a jiffy if the ZEW report is weak. Below 1.5860, support remains at 1.5740. The next good level remains at 1.5685. Distant support is 1.5630. Immediate resistance is still seen at 1.5970. A pivot high follows at 1.6020. Above 1.6055, euro/dollar faces resistance at 1.6135.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen made little progress on the close despite choppy trading on Monday. Expect more of the same today. Initial support is at 105.90. Strong support remains at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Distant support is at 104.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00. Strong resistance is 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant resistance still comes at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

A mammoth UK PPI report, which rose the fastest pace in 22 years, prompted sterling/dollar to reverse early losses and close higher on Monday. My model went long, but cable tested the trendline declining since November, so it should first edge lower. Immediate support is now seen at 1.9905. The next level is 1.9875. Below 1.9785, support is now seen at 1.9745 and 1.9710. Initial resistance now comes at 1.9963. This is followed by 2.0005. The next level is 2.0085.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

It was quiet in the Middle East and dollar/Swiss closed flat on Monday. My model remains short, but the support from the trendline rising since March 17 held again. Thus, the upside should be probed first. Only a close below 1.0113 would signal a more sustainable decline. Immediate resistance remains at 1.0215. Above 1.0325, resistance remains at 1.0415 and 1.0450. This is followed by 1.0540. Initial support is at 1.0135. Below 1.0113, support is seen at 1.0065 and .9996.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Published on  Tue, Jul 15 2008, 06:49 GMT