Daily Market Commentary

The dollar was all over the place on Thursday

Fri, Jul 11 2008, 06:19 GMT
by Cornelius Luca

GFT (Global Forex Trading)


The dollar was all over the place on Thursday, down versus the euro and the commodity currencies, but up against the yen and pound. The US currency should attempt another decline today and the US trade deficit should not be a market mover.


Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar rallied on Thursday to a one-week high. My model remains long and I expect a choppy upmove. Immediate resistance is at 1.5820. Above the pivot high at 1.5908, euro/dollar had distant resistance at 1.6020. Initial support is at 1.5665. Below 1.5630, support now comes at 1.5575. Distant support follows at 1.5460.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish


Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen made a half-hearted upmove on Thursday but got stuck in an inside range. Expect further choppy trading today as well, but the upside remains limited. Initial resistance remains at 107.25. Strong resistance is at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45. Good support is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed


Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar fell sharply early Thursday but reduced its losses by the close. My model went short, but I expected sideways trading today. Below 1.9775, support is still seen at 1.9730. Distant support is now seen at 1.9650. Initial resistance is seen at 1.9840. Above 1.9908, cable now faces distant resistance at 2.0004.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed


Dollar/Swiss franc

Despite the brouhaha in Iran, dollar/Swiss closed unchanged on Thursday. Thus, the bearish reversal formation from Wednesday remains incipient. Expect further choppy trading, and my model remains short. Initial support is still seen at 1.0250. The next level is 1.0215. Distant support is seen at 1.0166. Above 1.0320, resistance remains at 1.0415 and 1.0450. Distant resistance comes at 1.0540.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Published on  Fri, Jul 11 2008, 06:25 GMT

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