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Daily Market Commentary
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The dollar should remain under pressure today
Mon, Jun 30 2008, 06:10 GMT
by Cornelius Luca
The US currency accelerated its decline versus the majors, particularly against the yen, as some of the carry trade was liquidated. The dollar should remain under pressure today as well.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar surged further on Friday. The upside is still favored. Immediate resistance is at 1.5842. Above 1.5930, euro/dollar sees additional resistance at 1.6020. Initial support is at 1.5720. The next good level is at 1.5685. Below 1.5630, further support remains at 1.5575.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen sank aggressively, closing on Friday below the trendline rising since March 17. My model remains short, which is good, as a double top targeting 105.75 unfolded. Initial support is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Distant support is at 104.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00. Immediate resistance is seen at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant resistance now comes at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied to a two-month high on Friday. My model remains long, which is good as the pair triggered a double bottom, which targets 2.0375. Initial resistance now comes at 2.0010. Above 2.0040, further resistance comes at 2.0145. Immediate support is now seen at 1.9885. The next level is 1.9800. This is followed by 1.9710.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell for the fourth consecutive day on Friday, and more weakness may be in store. The close below the trending line rising since March 17 encourages further sales, but only a weekly close below 1.0149 would give me bear comfort. Below 1.0149, support is now seen at .9996. Initial resistance now comes at 1.0230. Above 1.0295, resistance is at 1.0345 and 1.0390. This is followed by 1.0540.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Published on Mon, Jun 30 2008, 06:23 GMT
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