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Daily Market Commentary

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The dollar should remain under pressure today

Fri, Jun 27 2008, 06:03 GMT
by Cornelius Luca

GFT

With the promise of higher rates later this year off the table, one of the few supports for the dollar was brusquely removed and the US currency tumbled against the majors. But the commodity currencies fell on the day as the appetite for risk dissipated. Take some of your cues from the spending/income and the University of Michigan reports, but with oil up and the stock markets down, the dollar should remain under pressure today.

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar surged to its highest level since June 9 after closing down only two of the past nine days. The upside is favored, but significant resistance looms at 1.5785. If 1.5785 gives way, look for a further rally to the initial pivot high at 1.5842. Of course, the big prize remains at 1.6042. Initial support is at 1.5745. Below 1.5660, EUR/USD has support at 1.5615. Further floors are at 1.5540, 1.5510 and 1.5470.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Long liquidation of yen crosses finally removed USD/JPY from the ubiquitous 107.95 pivot, and the pair collapsed to an over two-week low on Thursday. The selling pressure should persist, but look for support from a rising trendline at 106.50. Key level is 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. If this trendline buckles, then look for support at 106.33 and 105.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 105. 00 and 106.00 Resistance is initially seen at 107.00. Above 107.40, key resistance is at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar surged to an over 1 ½-month high on Thursday following hawkish comments by Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee which kept open the possibility that interest rates may rise this year. It recovered about half of the losses registered between March and May, and more strength is liklely. Initial resistace looms at 1.9908 from a long-term Fibonacci level. Above 1.9965, cable has resistance at 2.0005. Distant resistance looms at 2.0085. Immediate support is seen at 1.9850. Below 1.9800, there is further support at 1.9760 and 1.9715. Distant support is now seen at 1.9585.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss fell for the third consecutive day and Thursday’s slide was aggressive. More weaknkess is in store. Immediate support is at 1.0200. Below the pivot low at 1.0149, the pair has support at 1.0100. Distant support comes at 1.0017. Above 1.0250, the dollar has resistance at 1.0295. Further resistance is stacked at 1.0337. Distant resistance looms at 1.0390.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Published on  Fri, Jun 27 2008, 06:05 GMT