Daily Market Commentary

A set of bad US data didn't hurt the dollar all that much

Wed, Jun 18 2008, 06:24 GMT
by Cornelius Luca

Global Forex Trading


A set of bad US data didn’t hurt the dollar all that much and the market looks confused. It ended slightly lower against the euro, the franc, and the yen but higher against the pound. Cable crashed on Tuesday after the open letter from the Governor to the Chancellor in response to UK rise in inflation to 3.3 percent in May was not as hawkish as expected. This eased concerns that the next move in UK interest rates will be up. With no data on tap on Wednesday, the US currency should consolidate.


Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar struggled higher on Tuesday, as expected, and my model went long. Sideways trading is likely on Wednesday. Immediate resistance now comes at 1.5540. Above 1.5570, euro/dollar has strong resistance at 1.5645. Immediate support is seen at 1.5460. The next level is 1.5417. Below 1.5340, support comes at 1.5287. Distant support remains at 1.5230.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish


Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen reduced losses on Tuesday and my model remains long. The pair is overbought, but take profit only on a confirmation. Above 108.60, resistance is still seen at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65. Above 109.93, distant resistance is perched at 110.35 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85. Initial support is still seen at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45. Next strong level is at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed


Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar fell sharply on Tuesday on the BoE letter, but reduced losses by the close and remained in an inside range. My model remains long. The short-term outlook is mixed. Initial resistance is at 1.9605. Above 1.9687, strong resistance is now seen at 1.9760. Further resistance is perched at 1.9850. Immediate support comes at 1.9500. Further support comes at 1.9410.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed


Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss ended marginally lower on Tuesday but made little progress. The model is (barely) long. Trading should be mixed today. Below 1.0400, support is still seen at 1.0375. This important level is followed by 1.0310. Distant support is at 1.0200. Initial resistance is 1.0460. The next cap remains at 1.0500. Key resistance is at 1.0548. This is followed by 1.0622.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Published on  Wed, Jun 18 2008, 06:27 GMT

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