Daily Market Commentary

The dollar fell on Friday versus the yen and the franc

Mon, May 26 2008, 06:39 GMT
by Cornelius Luca

Global Forex Trading


The dollar fell on Friday versus the yen and the franc, but only consolidated against the euro and the pound. Given the long weekend, trading should remain nominal.


Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar closed virtually unchanged on Friday, and the positive outlook is in force. The interim inversed head-and-shoulders remains in place and my model remains long. Following some profit taking, the upmove should resume. Initial resistance is now seen at 1.5811. Above 1.5865, euro/dollar has distant resistance at 1.6020. Immediate support remains at 1.5726. The next level remains at 1.5685. This is followed by 1.5460.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish


Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen is alternating up and down days, and Friday was a down day. The pair was stuck in an inside range. My model remains short. Expect consolidation today. Key level is at 103.40 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90. A bid support is seen at 102.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80. Immediate resistance is now at 103.90. Strong resistance follows at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish


Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar consolidated in a tight range and closed flat on Friday. My model remains long and the interim inversed head-and-shoulders pattern is still in good shape. Initial resistance remains at 1.9850. Above it, there is further resistance at 1.9910. Distant resistance is at 2.0030. Immediate support is at 1.9760. This is followed by 1.9645. Only a break below 1.9545 would jeopardize the cable’s recovery.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed


Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss sank to a one-month low of Friday and this bodes well for my short model. The immediate outlook is bearish after forming a double top that targets 1.0130. Immediate support is now seen at 1.0200. This is followed by 1.0130 and 1.0105. Distant support is now pegged at .9877. Initial resistance now comes at 1.0295. The next level is perched at 1.0352. If 1.0390 gives way, expect a test of the distant resistance at .1.0623.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Published on  Mon, May 26 2008, 06:45 GMT

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