Daily FX Report
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The JPY gained against a basket of major currencies
Mon, Dec 1 2008, 11:44 GMT
by Varengold Bank Research Team
Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG
Good morning from wonderful Hamburg. The fight against the global economic recession will determine this trading week. Investors expect that many central banks will take interest rate measures. However we hope for successful trades and wish you a nice start in this week.
Market review
The JPY gained against a basket of major currencies on expectations of an interest rate cut by central banks in major economic zones this week. This step seems to be necessary to fight against the economic recession. Central banks including the ECB, the BoE, the RBA and the RBNZ review interest rates this week. On Friday the EUR lost around 1.6 % against the USD with a day-closing at 1.2695. The pair trades currently around 1.2670. Investors may refrain from building large positions ahead of these meetings in case of any central bank could surprise with bigger-than-expected rate cuts. Larger rate reductions would increase the risk in carry trades against the low-yielding JPY. The USD/JPY fell 0.2 % to 95.33, while the EUR/JPY lost 0.5 % to 120.70 from 121.22 on Friday. The EUR/JPY weakened for a fifth day, which is its longest period since October 6th on speculation the ECB will lower rates this week.
The interest rate meetings also influenced the AUD. On Friday the AUD/USD fell 1.2 % to 64.76 while the AUD/JPY lost 1.4 % to 61.72. It will be the fourth straight reduction of the RBA with a forecast of 75 bps to 4.5 % while a lot of traders believe a 150 bps rate slash by the RBNZ to 5 % on December 4th. The NZD/USD declined 1.2 % to 54.21 while the NZD/JPY lost around 1.43 % to 51.67.
USD/CHF
On a short-term view the USD/CHF has been trading in a bullish Fibonacci Fan and a support level at 1.21. After touching the lower Fibonacci Fan line, the market recovered very strong and trades now at the 1.21 and the upper Fibonacci support level. If the market doesn’t break these lines it could continue its short-term bullish phase.
EUR/CHF
Since August the EUR/CHF has been trading in Fibonacci retracement lines. After touching the lower retracement at 1.428 the market has shown a pull-back. Now the market seems to make a return after touching the 61.8 % line. If the pair breaks through the 50 % retracement level it could show further bearish movements.
Published on Mon, Dec 1 2008, 11:51 GMT
Archive
- The USD/CAD rose from 1.1496 to 1.1630 at its closing
Published On Fri, Jul 3 2009, 08:26 GMT - The deficit climbed from A$282mln in April to A$556mln in May
Published On Thu, Jul 2 2009, 10:45 GMT - The EUR/GBP has been trading close to a downward trend-line during the last quarter
Published On Wed, Jul 1 2009, 08:54 GMT - The currency pair traded in a bearish environment and triggered thereby its lowest monthly level
Published On Tue, Jun 30 2009, 09:00 GMT - In the middle of June, the currency pair slumped down and fell to 131.43
Published On Mon, Jun 29 2009, 08:54 GMT
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Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
This document is issued and approved by Varengold WPH Bank AG. The document is only intended for market counterparties and intermediate customers who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on the information set out within the document. It may not be reproduced or further distributed, in whole or in part, for any purpose. Due to international laws/regulations not all financial instruments/services may be available to all clients. You should have informed yourself about and observe any such restrictions when considering a potential investment decision. This electronic communication and its contents are intended for the recipient only and may contain confidential, non public and/or privileged information. If you have received this electronic communication in error, please advise the sender immediately, and delete it from your system (if permitted by law). Varengold does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Nothing herein shall be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial product. This communication is for informational purposes only. Any market or other views expressed herein are those of the sender only as of the date indicated and not of Varengold. Varengold reserves the right to consider any order sent electronically as not received unless it is confirmed verbally or through other means.Related reports
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