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Yesterday the crude oil decreased 11$

Wed, Sep 3 2008, 08:17 GMT
by Varengold Bank Research Team

Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG


Good morning from wonderful Hamburg and welcome to the Varengold Daily FX Report. Yesterday the crude oil decreased 11$ and reached the 105$ level for the first time since the beginning of April. This development ensured that the Equity markets escaleted.

Market review

The USD is trading close to a 10.5-month high against a basket of major currencies due to a negative development in other major economies and a sharp drop in oil prices. According to a dealer at an European bank, the low oil prices will continue to support the USD. The market will probably be also drew support from weakness in high-yielding currencies triggered by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest-rate cut.

Today big offers in GBP and NZD come through the market. It also drive the EUR/USD to a fresh 7-mth low. No news seen behind the big flows and it is not fastened to commodities so much since gold and oil are relatively calm compared to Tuesday. The EUR/USD drops 0.7% to 1,4415 and is geting closer to the 1.4400 support level. The NZD/USD plunges nearly 2% at one point to a 1-year low of 0.6735 and the GBP/USD falls also down 0.7% to 1.7707.

The economy of Australia has reached its lowest development in over 3 years last quarter. The weaknes in consumption and housing overshadowes the economic outlook and reinforces the assessment for further rate cuts. The AUD/USD is down about 30 pips to a low of 0.8295. That is still close to a 1-year low of 0.8270 hit the previous day. The AUD/JPY is also down to 90.20 from around 90.24, close to a 5-month low of 89.80.

GBP/CAD

Since the end of last year the GBP/CAD has been trading in a horizontal large trend channel with a resistance at 2.0545 and a support level at 1.9303. At the end of August the market broke trough the support and touched its 10-month low at 1.9. If the market doesn’t break trough this new support level we will assume a recovery phase.

chart 1

EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY has shown a bullish trend development from the middle of march to the beginning of August with a resistance level at 169.77. Since the beginning of last month the market has shown a strong bearish face and broke trough the 165.21 and the 158.56 support level. This could indicate a further continuation of the downward trend with a support level at 151.84.

chart 2


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