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Daily FX Report

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German retail sales fall 1,7% in April

Fri, May 30 2008, 08:17 GMT
by Varengold Bank Research Team

Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG


Good morning from wonderful Hamburg. It is Friday and all traders are looking for the weekend. The time is running fast and with the next month the first half of 2008 is over. In Hamburg should be nice weather at the weekend so we have good conditions to have a fine barbecue. We wish all readers of the Varengoldbank´s Daily FX Report a nice weekend.

Markets review

The freshest news from this morning is, that the German retail sales fall 1,7% in April. This loss is much more than experts expectations for a 0,6 % increase. On the yearly base the retail sales data fall 1,0 % against forecasts for a 1,9 % pace of decline. Euro is knocked lower on this messages and EUR/USD is falling about 40 pips to 1,5487.

During the week USD/JPY was jumped as much as 2,4 % to its 3-mth high of 105,88. The USD slips vs. JPY in the last night Asia trading session. Some traders said these moves came from Japanese exporters and their active USD sells. USD/JPY edges down 0,2 % on the session to 104,34.

British consumer confidence fell to -29 in May. This is the lowest level since 1990. Also separate data from pay consultant IDS shows that median UK pay deals eased about 3,2 % in 3 months to April. GBP/USD slips to a day´s low of 1,9740 down, from around 1,9760 before the data.

EUR/JPY

In EUR/JPY was a strong bullish trend from the middle of March till the middle of April. With its abortive try to break the 165 mark the market recovered after his up rally. Since the middle of May the market moves slowly in the direction of 165 again. If it would break through this mark it could come up a new strong support at this level with more bullish potential.

Chart 1

GBP/CHF

With the beginning of February GBP/CHF started a bearish trend with its lowest level in the middle of April. With a following recovery the market gave hope to the traders for bullish markets. A side move period started in May, which ended with the break of its upper channel line. When this break is effective the market could come back to bullish moves.

Chart 2


Pivot Points - Daily FX Support and Resistance Levels
Currency Support 2 Support 1 Pivotpoint Resistance 1 Resistance 2
EUR / USD 1,5375 1,5445 1,5554 1,5624 1,5733
USD / JPY 104,03 104,76 105,32 106,05 106,61
GBP / USD 1,9605 1,9686 1,9752 1,9833 1,9899
USD / CHF 1,0296 1,0392 1,0457 1,0553 1,0618
AUD / USD 0,9468 0,9510 0,9577 0,9619 0,9686
CAD / USD 0,9776 0,9828 0,9875 0,9927 0,9974
NZD / USD 1,6120 1,6178 1,6238 1,6296 1,6356
EUR / CAD 1,5147 1,5244 1,5371 1,5468 1,5595
EUR / CHF 1,6192 1,6236 1,6269 1,6313 1,6346
EUR / GBP 0,7793 0,7820 0,7869 0,7896 0,7945
EUR / JPY 162,82 163,29 163,76 164,23 164,70
GBP / CHF 2,0428 2,0581 2,0673 2,0826 2,0918
GBP / JPY 205,92 207,29 208,12 209,49 210,32

Daily Calendar & Key FX Events
Date Time (GMT) Economic Indicator Last
30.05.2008 09:00 EZ Unemployment rate 7,1
30.05.2008 09:00 EZ Inflation, flash yy 3,3
30.05.2008 12:30 CAGDP qq Q1 0,2
30.05.2008 12:30 USPersonal income 0,3
30.05.2008 12:30 USPCE price index mm 0,30
30.05.2008 12:30 USConsumption, adjusted 0,40
30.05.2008 14:30 USECRI weekly annualized -6,6

Published on  Fri, May 30 2008, 08:36 GMT


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Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG  | Große Elbstraße 27, 22767 Hamburg
http://www.varengold.de/ | info@varengold.de

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