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The AUD dips below the 0,94 against the USD
Wed, May 14 2008, 09:07 GMT
by Varengold Bank Research Team
Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG
Good morning from still sunny but cool Hamburg. Here I’ve got a nice plan for your day. After a hale breakfast and a workout you can take a look to the Euro zone Inflation. After that you can relax a bit before you monitor the US jobless claim. At least you only have to spy the US CPI and the hard day at work is over.
Markets review
The AUD dips below the 0,94 against the USD after lower than expected Q1 wages data and pushes back risks of a near term interest rate. The RBA has recently warned that it would have to consider tightening again if the wage growth begin to accelerate, but the latest data is likely to help soothe its concerns. As like the Aussi the NZD hits a 4-mth low versus USD at 0,7612 in the face of a firmer USD and as investors await Thursday’s Q1 retail sales data which let expect to offer fresh evidence of a slowing domestic economy.
The USD rose broadly on Tuesday after unexpected strong retail sales, excluding automobiles, in April supported views that the Fed would probably not cut interest rates again next month. News that retail sales excluding the hard pressed auto sector increased 0,5 percent after a 0,4 percent in march which pickup suggested that the US consumer remained resilient despite the housing market route.
Technical analysis
NZD/JPY
The NZD/JPY trade since the end of February in a horizontal trend channel with a resistance at 83,04 and a support at 78,13. In spite of several attempts the levels endures and hold the pair in this range. At the moment it trades close to the support and if it will not cross it there could be up potential up to the resistance.
USD/JPY
We could notice a positive trend channel since the middle of March. The USD/JPY rebounded from the resistance at 105,96 and dropped to the down line of the channel. The afterwards recovery could let expect a second try to cross the resistance. A break through could support the positive trend and would be a sign for an ongoing.
| Currency | Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivotpoint | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| EUR / USD | 1,5348 | 1,5403 | 1,5484 | 1,5539 | 1,5620 |
| USD / JPY | 102,81 | 103,79 | 104,36 | 105,34 | 105,91 |
| GBP / USD | 1,9309 | 1,9378 | 1,9486 | 1,9555 | 1,9663 |
| USD / CHF | 1,0363 | 1,0451 | 1,0503 | 1,0591 | 1,0643 |
| AUD / USD | 0,9317 | 0,9356 | 0,9420 | 0,9459 | 0,9523 |
| CAD / USD | 0,9927 | 0,9981 | 1,0038 | 1,0092 | 1,0149 |
| NZD / USD | 0,7578 | 0,7606 | 0,7660 | 0,7688 | 0,7742 |
| EUR / AUD | 1,6304 | 1,6377 | 1,6424 | 1,6497 | 1,6544 |
| EUR / CAD | 1,5326 | 1,5425 | 1,5545 | 1,5644 | 1,5764 |
| EUR / CHF | 1,6130 | 1,6210 | 1,6260 | 1,6340 | 1,6390 |
| EUR / GBP | 0,7883 | 0,7915 | 0,7945 | 0,7977 | 0,8007 |
| EUR / JPY | 159,23 | 160,63 | 161,48 | 162,88 | 163,73 |
| GBP / CHF | 2,0238 | 2,0363 | 2,0453 | 2,0578 | 2,0668 |
| GBP / JPY | 200,46 | 202,13 | 203,15 | 204,82 | 205,84 |
| Date | Time (GMT) | Economic Indicator | Last |
| 14.05.2008 | 08:30 | GB Claimant count unem chng | -1,20 |
| 14.05.2008 | 08:30 | GB ILO unemployment rate | 5,20 |
| 14.05.2008 | 09:00 | EZ Industrial production mm | 0,3 |
| 14.05.2008 | 11:00 | USMortgage refinance index | 2273,8 |
| 14.05.2008 | 11:00 | USMortgage market index | 655,4 |
| 14.05.2008 | 12:30 | US inflation mm,SA | 0,30 |
| 14.05.2008 | 12:30 | US CPI yy, NSA | 4,00 |
Published on Wed, May 14 2008, 09:22 GMT
Archive
- The JPY gained against a basket of major currencies
Published On Mon, Dec 1 2008, 11:44 GMT - The USD headed for its biggest weekly decline in almost three years against the EUR
Published On Fri, Nov 28 2008, 09:09 GMT - The EUR/USD was back again above the 1.29 level
Published On Thu, Nov 27 2008, 09:08 GMT - The JPY has gained against the EUR
Published On Wed, Nov 26 2008, 08:37 GMT - Yesterday the EUR/USD rose 2.8 %
Published On Tue, Nov 25 2008, 09:49 GMT
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