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Daily FX Report

The USD rose sharp on Thursday after government data showed signs of resilience in the labor market

Fri, Apr 25 2008, 09:26 GMT
by Varengold Bank Research Team

Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG  |  View company's profile


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Good morning from Hamburg. Yesterday the dollar was pushed by the US labor data while the EUR came under pressure by bad German IFO Export data.

Markets review

The USD rose sharp on Thursday after government data showed signs of resilience in the labor market, while a key confidence measure in Germany plunged, weighing on the European currency. The EUR fold 1,3% to the low of 1,5639 which was the worst performance since nearly four years. However the USD rose 1,1% against the basket of six major currencies at 72,569.

The Japanese annual inflation as measured by core CPI hit a decade high of 1,2% in March, as expected, but the BOJ is expected to sit tight on interest rates for a while in the face of a soft economic outlook at home. The USD/JPY is up 0,1% at 104,35. Traders say Japanese exporters offer are lined up between 104,50 and 105 while hefty stops are looming around 105.

Canada’s primary securities dealers unanimously predict on the Bank of Canada will cut its key overnight interest rate in June, but after that most are calling for a pause in the easing cycle. The CAD lost 0,37% against the USD and closed the Thursday at 1,0133.

Technical analysis

EUR/USD

Three days after the EUR/USD hit the all time high at 1,6018 it dropped hard after positive US economy data. The break through the up trend line could be a sign for a cool down of the record highs in the recent months.

Chart 1

USD/CHF

Since the middle of March the USD/CHF traded in a horizontal trend channel. The fourth attempt to break through the resistance at 1,0217 was successful. Should it hold the level in the next trading day could there establish an up trend development.

Chart 2


Pivot Points - Daily FX Support and Resistance Levels
Currency Support 2 Support 1 Pivotpoint Resistance 1 Resistance 2
EUR / USD 1,5482 1,5581 1,5736 1,5835 1,5990
USD / JPY 102,78 103,51 104,02 104,75 105,26
GBP / USD 1,9616 1,9678 1,9747 1,9809 1,9878
USD / CHF 1,0055 1,0205 1,0295 1,0445 1,0535
AUD / USD 0,9307 0,9352 0,9418 0,9463 0,9529
CAD / USD 1,0065 1,0103 1,0157 1,0195 1,0249
NZD / USD 0,7800 0,7834 0,7893 0,7927 0,7986
EUR / AUD 1,6530 1,6603 1,6689 1,6762 1,6848
EUR / CAD 1,5654 1,5780 1,5972 1,6098 1,6290
EUR / CHF 1,6056 1,6150 1,6198 1,6292 1,6340
EUR / GBP 0,7876 0,7911 0,7969 0,8004 0,8062
EUR / JPY 161,99 162,79 163,65 164,45 165,31
GBP / CHF 1,9936 2,0191 2,0325 2,0580 2,0714
GBP / JPY 203,35 204,60 205,35 206,60 207,35

Daily Calendar & Key FX Events
Date Time (GMT) Economic Indicator Last
25.04.2008 06:00 De Import prices mm 1,10
25.04.2008 08:00 EZ Money – Private loans 10,9
25.04.2008 08:00 EZ Money-M3 annual grwth 11,3
25.04.2008 08:30 GB GDP prelim yy Q1 2,80
25.04.2008 13:55 USU.Mich sentiment final 69,5
25.04.2008 13:55 USU.Mich expectation final 60,1
25.04.2008 14:30 USECRI weekly annualized -10,2

Published on  Fri, Apr 25 2008, 09:39 GMT


Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG http://www.varengold.de/ | info@varengold.de

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