Daily FX Report

Good morning from beautiful Hamburg and welcome to our Daily FX Report. Today, various important figures will be released in the US and Europe in conjunction with the announcement of the latest key interest benchmarks.

However, we wish you a great day and much success in trading.

Market Review – Fundamental Perspective

After the resumed negotiations concerning further reductions in pension benefits between the Greek Prime Minister Papademos, the representatives of European Union and the International Monetary Fund, the EUR was able to keep its two-day advance versus the JPY. In an e-mail statement announced Papademos that an agreement with the other political parties concerning the required reforms could be reached except of one point. This news supported the capital markets with positive momentum, although the investor sentiments are still critical. But further gains were limited by the scheduled meeting of the European finance ministers and the officials of the ECB for discussing the further monetary policy of the ECB. Today, the ECB and the Bank of England will announce the latest interest rate decisions. According to Bloomberg, the key benchmark will not be lowered by the ECB and remained at 1 percent. But in contrast to the EUR, the GBP was weakened through the growing speculations regarding an expansion of the current bond purchasing program of 50 billion GBP and the today’s monetary policy meeting of the BOE.

Therefore, the EUR was at 1.3259 USD among touching the highest price since the 12th of December. Versus the JPY, the EUR benefited 0.1 percent to 102.29 after a two-day increase of 1.6 percent. Also the USD gained 0.2 percent against the JPY and was at 77.16, while the GBP rose versus the USD to 1.5814 from 1.5818 the day before, after a 0.5 percent drop yesterday.

After the unexpected announcement of the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep its key interest rate at 4.25 percent, the AUD strengthened further. In the last six months, the AUD advanced 5.9 percent against the USD and was the best performer among the 31 currency peers tracked by Bloomberg. But the strong AUD eased the gains from exports. The AUD climbed to 1.0845 USD, the highest since the 2nd of August, before closing at 1.0793 USD.

Daily Technical Analysis - Our Focus Currencies for Today

EUR/GBP (Daily)

As we can see on the chart, since its high on the 4th of January, the EUR has been depreciating against the GBP below a bearish Fibonacci fan to the support level around 0.82243. There the pair experienced demand and climbed to the resistance level around 0.84193, before a consolidation along this level started. After having reentered its bearish Fibonacci fan, the bulls still took control over the pair, while the RSI is providing us with a bullish signal. If the rate can break through its hurdle, further gains up to the middle fan line seem likely.

Intraday Support & Resistance (4 Hours)

NZD/JPY (4 Hours)

Backed by its strong former resistance level around 59.796 on the 5th of January, the NZD/JPY currency pair has established a vital bullish trend inside an Andrew’s Pitchfork channel. Currently, the rate is trading inside the lower channel of the pitchfork among approaching the resistance level around 64.690, where a first attempt of crossing failed. Momentum and OsMA are providing us with bearish signals; therefore we might see a rebound at the middle channel line and the next hurdle.

Intraday Support & Resistance (4 Hours)

•  Read the Varengold analysis on majors, crosses and exotic pairs