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Currency Technical Report

Fri, Aug 8 2008, 10:48 GMT
by George Antonakos

FXGreece


EUR/USD

Resistance : 1,5190-00/ 1,5230/ 1,5250/ 1,5285/ 1,5310/ 1,5350
Support : 1,5130/ 1,5100/ 1,5080/ 1,5030/ 1,5000/ 1,4950-80/ 1,4900

Comment: Euro breached important support levels at 1,5470-5530, which were the ranges for the uptrend, and continues its sharp decline. Trichets’ negative comments regarding the economic growth of Euro zone and the fact that he didn’t give any sign for the future monetary policy, combined with the appearance of euro bears in all retracements after the top of 1,6040 (an intervention in favor of dollar is possible during the decline), led euro below the important base of 1,5300, which set the sideways consolidation during the last five months.
The basic trend line that set the ranges for the upward move after the lows of last August, has been breached and the clear- according to current signs- break of the 1.5300 base, gives a negative technical outlook for the European currency.


If there is no sudden reversal or a quick pullback above 1,5350-00, our basic targets will be now at 1,4830-4930, (2007 tops), but the target regarding the double top formation and the long term trend line is found at 1,4450-4550 (daily and weekly chart). The area of 1,4450-4550 is the last support level for euro’s uptrend.
Lower targets will be valid as long as euro remains below 1,5300-50 at any reaction. This level is now a resistance, while the ranges for a false break will be set at 1,5430-50. We are looking for a similar reaction (at the opposite direction) to euro’s after the upward break of 1,4950-00 in the beginning of the year...




TRADING EUR/USD
SWING TRADING : The break of 1,5450 canceled the upward scenario and the downward break of important support will lead us to a bearish scenario. Sell positions will be tried in the retracements until 1,5350 area with stops above 1,5450. Our strategy will change in case of a clear reversal candle today and if the weekly close is not below 1,5250. Our first basic target will be at 1,4950-00. We keep our positions small due to the current low liquidity in the market.
INTRADAY TRADING : Euro’s pressure will give sell opportunities. We will use any reaction towards 1,5230-50 and 1,5280-00, with stops above 1,5335. Small buy orders will be set at 1,5130-50, with stops below 1,5100, "betting" on the support levels. In general, we will follow the market in such a sharp
decline until we see important reversal signs...


GBP/USD

Resistance: 1,9300/ 1,9330/ 1,9370/ 1,9400/ 1,9430
Support: 1,9250/ 1,9200/ 1,9170/ 1,9150/ 1,9130

Comment : Our target in the base of 1,9400-50 was breached. If the break of 1.9350-80 is clear, targets will be set lower towards 1.9000 or even 1,8500 area in the longer term.
Our first short term target is set at 1,9150-70, followed by 1,9000. Bulls should gain momentum from 1,9150-70 area, leading to an important downward reaction.
Resistance is found at 1,9350 and 1,9400. Our lower targets will be valid is retracements are limited below 1.9450...Above those levels and especially a weekly close will cancel lower targets, proving a false break...

TRADING GBP/USD : We will follow the trend trying sell positions in the retracements towards 1,9300-30 and 1,9370-90, setting our stops above 1,9440. Buy positions will be tried at 1,9150-80 with stops below 1,9130.



USD/JPY






Published on  Fri, Aug 8 2008, 10:51 GMT


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