Low Risk High Reward Breakouts

I have been in the trading business for nearly 20 years as a trader, fund manager, and educator, beginning on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. If I had to list the top three mistakes I see most traders make, one that would for sure be on the list is when people enter the market. Most traders today still buy and sell “breakouts.” Trading breakouts can be high risk, high stress, low reward and low probability, or this strategy can be low risk, low stress, high reward and high probability. The difference lies in when you enter into this type of position. I will use a trade I took last week in the DAX Futures market (FDAX) to illustrate the proper way to enter the position and explain the wrong way to do it.

Before getting into the details of the mistake and correcting it, it’s important to understand two key components of markets.

1. Why do prices move in any market? Price in any market turns at price levels where demand and supply are out of balance. The consistently profitable trader is able to identify a demand and supply imbalance which means knowing where banks and institutions are buying and selling in a market. By quantifying institutional demand and supply areas on a price chart, you can identify market turns and market moves in advance with a very high degree of accuracy.

2. Who is on the other side of your trade? Trading is simply a transfer of accounts from those who don’t know what they are doing into the accounts of those who do. The consistently profitable trader knows that a novice trader is on the other side of their trades by where they are entering and exiting trades.

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  The Mistake

Notice area “A.” Area “A” is the origin of a decline in price. Most breakout traders will look to sell short as price breaks out to the downside (A) from the supply level. This type of breakout entry is typically the “sucker bet.” Traders see price moving lower from supply and they give in to emotion and short into that initial decline while price is falling. The problem is that by the time you short the breakout from supply, price has moved so far that it becomes a high risk and low reward trade. Instead, I choose to sit back and let the breakout happen because that breakout tells me that there is a demand and supply imbalance at the origin of that breakout. This is exactly where banks and institutions are selling. Next, I wait for price to return to the supply area. When it does, at “B,” I am a very interested seller as I am confident I am selling to a novice buyer. I know this because the buyer at “B” is making the two mistakes that every consistent losing (novice) trader makes. First, they are buying after a period of buying and second, they are buying at a price level where supply exceeds demand.

The Setup

For shorts, many identify a market in a downtrend by using a 20 period moving average (I don’t). Next, identify the origin of a strong move and place two lines around the price action to create a supply zone (yellow shaded area). Make sure the supply level has the pattern that represents where banks and institutions are selling as that is key. Then, make sure there is a significant profit zone below.

The Action

Sell short at “B” when price touches the bottom black line of the level and place your protective buy stop just above the upper black line. Adjust your position size so that you are not risking more than you are willing to lose. This is the proper way to enter the position, not on the initial breakout.

What happens when people enter the market on a breakout is they end up placing their protective stop right where they should be entering in the first place. This can be very frustrating because they stop out for losses often, yet are typically correct on ultimate direction. The proper entry I am speaking of in this piece works in any market and any time frame. A key component to making these work that is beyond the scope of this article is this: When taking any buy or sell entries in markets, make sure you know exactly where price is with regard to the larger time frame supply/demand curve. Whether you trade Stocks, Futures, Forex or Options, understand that behind all the candles on your screen in all these markets are people and their emotional decisions to buy and sell. Most will fall for the emotional breakout trading traps allowing others to get paid from them. In short, instead of entering the market on the initial move higher or lower from a level, enter on the first pullback into the fresh supply or demand level. This is one of the most common mistakes I see traders make.

Hope this was helpful. Have a great day.

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