I also think that keeping track of your forex performance and emotions when you’re winning is just as important. You wouldn’t want to lose your mojo while you’re on a winning streak, would you?
If you answered “No,” you better keep yourself from becoming overconfident. After all, there’s nothing like a string of winners to make a trader feel like he or she can’t make mistakes.
Overconfidence is usually characterized by an exaggerated belief in one’s own trading skills. Now, don’t get me wrong. Confidence is critical in becoming a successful trader. However, it’s one thing to believe that your trades can reel you in a handful of pips and it’s another to think that you know everything about the markets and that there’s no way for you to lose.
Overconfident traders usually get in trouble by trading larger position sizes than they’re used to, jumping in again in the same direction after getting stopped out, or overtrading.
If that just hit a nerve, don’t worry. You’re not the only one guilty of being overconfident. So how do you keep yourself from doing so? Here are a few of my suggestions:
The first step is awareness. You should ask yourself, “What factors can invalidate my trade idea?” or “What will I do when my trade goes against me?” From there, consider a few contingency plans. Through this exercise of making yourself aware that your seemingly-fail-proof trade setups can still end up as losers, you become more careful in managing your trade.
My second advice is to avoid being too eager in entering trades. As I mentioned, overtrading is one of the signs of overconfidence. Check your trading plan before you enter a trade. Does price action meet your entry criteria? If not, don’t just jump in because you have this “gut feeling” that that setup is gonna end up as a winner like your previous trades.
It doesn’t stop at entry criteria though. Just like how you would set a maximum drawdown stop whenever you’re in a losing streak, setting a cap for your losses is also as important as when you’re on a roll.
When you start losing after winning a few trades in a row, there’s a tendency for you to tell yourself that it’s okay because you still have a lot of money anyway. Although this might be true, the danger is that you may become lenient with your execution performance.
If you’re not careful, you might end up giving yourself a free pass on one loss after another. And before you know it, bam! You’ve already lost all your gains!
So be sure to determine how much of your winnings you are willing to lose. Let’s say you have already lost half of your most recent 3% gain, you may already want to take a little time off trading, re-consider your approach, and examine what you’ve been doing differently.
Ultimately, it all goes back to your trading plan. The best way to keep yourself from being overconfident is to establish a detailed trading plan and STICK TO IT!
Winning feels good, I know. Most of the time, it makes us feel like we’re invincible; that we can get away with a win on every trade. However, once you start to have this kind of thinking, that’s when you become most vulnerable to careless trading and your profits could evaporate in an instant.
Keep in mind that your goal as a trader is to become consistently profitable. So build on your wins by keeping your ego in check!
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD trims losses, back to 1.1830
EUR/USD manages to regain some composure, leaving behind part of the earlier losses and reclaim the 1.1830 region on Tuesday. In the meantime, the US Dollar’s upside impulse loses some momentum while investors remain cautious ahead of upcoming US data releases, including the FOMC Minutes.
GBP/USD bounces off lows, retargets 1.3550
After bottoming out just below the 1.3500 yardstick, GBP/USD now gathers some fresh bids and advances to the 1.3530-1.3540 band in the latter part of Tuesday’s session. Cable’s recovery comes as the Greenback surrenders part of its advance, although it keeps the bullish bias well in place for the day.
Gold remains offered below $5,000
Gold stays on the defensive on Tuesday, receding to the sub-$5,000 region per troy ounce on the back of the persistent move higher in the Greenback. The precious metal’s decline is also underpinned by the modest uptick in US Treasury yields across the spectrum.
Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP upside looks limited amid deteriorating retail demand
The cryptocurrency market extends weakness with major coins including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) trading in sideways price action at the time of writing on Tuesday.
UK jobs market weakens, bolstering rate cut hopes
In the UK, the latest jobs report made for difficult reading. Nonetheless, this represents yet another reminder for the Bank of England that they need to act swiftly given the collapse in inflation expected over the coming months.
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