Brandon Wendell, CMT
Brandon Wendell
If you have been following the NASDAQ index, you know that prices have been making all-time market highs lately, even though the other indexes have been stuck in a range. There are a lot of stocks that are also at an all-time market high. As traders, we know that we should participate in the dominant trend but base our exits on supply and demand zones. The biggest question when a market high has been hit becomes: where are we supposed to exit when we do not have a supply zone to mark the top?
There are a couple of technical tools that we can use to identify probable targets for our trades, both intraday and on swing trades. It is important to note that none of these are as strong as actual supply zones but they do seem to offer higher probability targets when we are breaking out into the unknown territory of market highs.
Measure Momentum
The first method for determining where to exit a trade when a market high has been hit is one of the easiest. Before prices break to new highs, they often pull back to gain momentum. If you measure the depth of the pullback and then project that same length at the breakout, it will often mark the area of the first correction after the breakout.
I have previously used this method in my Futures class to identify targets that were extremely accurate in all types of futures contracts and in many different time frames. Think of price as a pendulum, it swings backwards just as much as it will swing forwards with similar momentum.
Fibonacci Extension Tool
The next method offers multiple targets and uses a tool that is available on most software platforms. The Fibonacci Extension tool measures the impulse prior to the breakout and then projects certain measurements of that impulse from the recent lows. An impulse is a strong move in the direction of the dominant trend. After the impulse has corrected, you can project where the new impulse will likely stall.
Moving Average
The last method for how to trade during an all-time market high is to simply wait for a signal that the trend has been broken. Moving averages offer a summary of the current trend and the mean price. In a bullish trend, prices should move away from an average and then snap back to it but not close below the moving average. This is called reversion to the mean. If price breaks the moving average by closing below it, then the trend has likely ended.
There are two problems with this technique. First, you will never exit at the top of the move since we wait for a pullback to trigger the exit. That is fine though as we can still participate and profit from the majority of the move.
The second problem is the choice of the period for the moving average. We need to select a period or length of the moving average that price will respect for the trend. Stocks and timeframes differ and one moving average may not work for all securities. There are some advanced techniques for finding the best length but I will save that for discussion in our trading courses.
So if the price of your security breaks to new highs, these methods might help you be better prepared to take your profits at the right time rather than trying to guess. Don’t forget, the best entries and exits for trades are always found at strong supply or demand zones. To learn more about how to trade and invest properly, contact your local Online Trading Academy center and enroll in the Professional Trader course today.
Neither Freedom Management Partners nor any of its personnel are registered broker-dealers or investment advisers. I will mention that I consider certain securities or positions to be good candidates for the types of strategies we are discussing or illustrating. Because I consider the securities or positions appropriate to the discussion or for illustration purposes does not mean that I am telling you to trade the strategies or securities. Keep in mind that we are not providing you with recommendations or personalized advice about your trading activities. The information we are providing is not tailored to any individual. Any mention of a particular security is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security or a suggestion that it is suitable for any specific person. Keep in mind that all trading involves a risk of loss, and this will always be the situation, regardless of whether we are discussing strategies that are intended to limit risk. Also, Freedom Management Partners’ personnel are not subject to trading restrictions. I and others at Freedom Management Partners could have a position in a security or initiate a position in a security at any time.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD appears supported by the 200-day SMA, for now
Following an early pullback to multi-week lows near 1.1670, EUR/USD now manages to reclaim the 1.1700 region as the NA session draws to a close on Monday. The steep retracement in spot follows the equally strong move higher in the US Dollar, as investors continue to assess the geopolitical landscape in the wake of the US and Israel attacks on Iran.
GBP/USD hits new yearly lows near 1.3300
GBP/USD adds to the recent bearish tone, approaching to the key 1.3300 support to reach fresh YTD troughs against the backdrop of the robust performance of the US Dollar. Indeed, Cable’s decline comes amid the firm demand for the safe-haven space in the wake of the US and Israel attacks to Iran.
USD/JPY: Japanese Yen remains depressed vs. USD amid Middle East tensions; lacks follow-through
The USD/JPY pair catches fresh bids at the start of a new week and climbs back closer to last week's swing high, though it lacks follow-through and remains below the 157.00 mark through the Asian session. A coordinated US-Israel military strike on Iran marks a dramatic escalation of geopolitical tensions and unsettles global markets.
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD trims losses, targets 0.7100
AUD/USD manages to regain composure and trim a big chunk of the earlier drop, re-shifting its attention to the 0.7100 hurdle ahead of the opening bell in Asia. The pair’s decline follows the marked improvement in the Greenback, which is in turn propped up by safe haven demand on the back of the deteriorating geopolitical scenario in the Middle East.
EUR/USD appears supported by the 200-day SMA, for now
Following an early pullback to multi-week lows near 1.1670, EUR/USD now manages to reclaim the 1.1700 region as the NA session draws to a close on Monday. The steep retracement in spot follows the equally strong move higher in the US Dollar, as investors continue to assess the geopolitical landscape in the wake of the US and Israel attacks on Iran.
Gold eases some ground, approaches $5,300
Gold now surrenders part of the earlier advance, reshifting its attenton to the $5,300 zone per troy ounce at the beginning of the week. Indeed, the yellow metal’s firm performance appears propped up by incresing geopolitical jitters in the Middle East, which at the same time fuels the demand for the safe-haven space.
Ethereum Price Forecast: BitMine lifts ETH holdings to 4.47M, Lee predicts geopolitical impact on markets
Ethereum (ETH) treasury firm BitMine Immersion (BMNR) bought another 50,928 ETH last week, sending its stash of the top altcoin to 4.47 million ETH worth about $8.9 billion at the time of publication.
The Fed is finally talking about AI – Here's why it matters for the US Dollar Premium
AI is moving from earnings calls into the heart of monetary policy discussions, forcing Federal Reserve officials to confront a new question: How to act if AI reshapes inflation, employment and interest rates at the same time?
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