Vladimir Mihaylov
Independent Analyst
EUR continues free fall as the negative news is coming out one by one. First the ECB starts QE program and now in Greece will rule the pro-socialist government. Days of the european union are already counted, the countdown has started. EUR price goes to the downside incerasing its speed with every hour it is like a snowball falling downs the mountain slope and finally will crash into the rocks at the bottom. This morning the pair has recorded a fresh low at 1.1097 then corrected some 100 pips higher. Week has started again with a downside gap. Indicators on Weekly, Daily and H4 are extremely bearish with no signs of any significant correction. Any upside will be used to open fresh SHORT positions as next target will be breaking of the 1.1000. It is crazy but we have support at 1.013 where is the border of the major Monthly downside channel with the starting point in april 2008 and and downside point starting in november 2008. This channel is leading us to 1.013 this year. Will it happen it is quite difficult to say but we have a chance for the next 2-3 months. To restore the upside we need a monthy close above 1.2300 and this won't happen soon. For now we are bearish with the EUR/USD.
GOLD has broken above 1278 resistance and closed above which is a good sign however it faced the 1304-1307 which both are Weekly's Senkou Span A and Span B prices. breaking above 1307 will encourage bulls to continue to 1350. The metal is bullish above 1266 on Daily basis, below that you should exit and wait for another signal. Currently the Ichimoky Span A and B continue to press the price to the downside.
NZD drammatically has lost 400 pips last week and currently trades at the bottom close to 0.7400. I think we have a great chance of testing even prices below 0.7000, as the next support is the bottom of the monthly positive Ichimoku at 0.6866. This won't happen this month as this is the last week left. For now indicators on all time frames are bearish and downside will continue.
AUD is strongly bearish too and the situation here is quite similar to NZD. Upside recovery may start only on H1 close above 0.7900 and may extend only to 0.7950. The outlook here for this week is bearish below 0.7950. We have the Monthly SMA200 at 0.7780-90 and i expect this to stop the downside.
JPY consolidates inside the positive Daily Ichimoku cloud and is near to the top but lacks enough power to break above it again and to restore the upside. This will happen on breaking higher 118.80. Keep in mind that a Daily close below 117.20 will be a signal for restoring the downside move again. If we are not able to break above 118.80 till the end of this week it is quite possible the downside to continue with breaking the cloud to the downside next month.
GBP has reached the psychological 1.5000 price and if we have a strong push lower we may even reach 1.4800 but there we shall encounter with a strong support and i think that if we reach there the recovery back above 1.5000will be very quick. Daily upside target is 1.5110 followed by 1.5300. Only above that we shall have more chances to continue the upside. For now on all time frames we are bearish except H1.
RUB continues small range consolidation as everybody interests in EUR/USD and noone cares for the RUB. The upside will be restored above 64.50 on Daily frame and below that we have more chances to continue downside correction. As long as we are above 58.00 chances of a new upside wave are preserved. H4 and H1 indicators are mixed and give no information of further moves, better stay out of the market here.
For today:
SHORT EUR below 1.1250 SL 1.1265 TP 1.1160-1.1100-1.1080
LONG EUR above 1.1280 SL 1.1265 TP 1.1320-1.1380-1.1440
LONG GOLD above 1294 SL 1291 TP 1306-1320-1342-1350
SHORT GOLD below 1276 SL 1279 TP 1252-1236-1222
Good luck!
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