EURUSD
The Euro remains at the back foot and eventually closed below daily Ichimoku cloud top that served as good support for over one week. Yesterday’s fresh acceleration lower, boosted by stronger dollar, penetrated into cloud and approached next support at 1.1045, daily 100SMA, which was cracked on today’s extension to 1.1030 low. Recovery attempts were limited for now and remain below cloud top at 1.1103, now acting as pivotal resistance. Bearish setup of daily studies favors further downside, following yesterday’s repeated strong bearish close. Renewed attempts below 100SMA open psychological 1.10 support and more daily Ichimoku cloud base, which was dented on Monday’s extension to fresh weekly low at 1.0952, after week’s gap lower opening. All eyes are now on today’s US NFP data, with another solid release, expected to keep Euro pressured. Alternative scenario requires sustained return above cloud top to sideline immediate downside risk.
Res: 1.1103; 1.1150; 1.1191; 1.1232
Sup: 1.1045; 1.1030, 1.0992; 1.0952
GBPUSD
Near-term tone softened, following yesterday’s close in red and below former base at 1.5660. Consolidation is under way, above yesterday’s fresh low at 1.5587, with negative near-term studies, keeping downside in focus. Resumption of fresh bears would look for next target at 1.5547, 50% retracement of 1.5168/1.5927 rally that guards more significant 1.5458, 200SMA and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, also daily Ichimoku cloud base. Daily studies are mixed, with mixed setup of SMA’s, signaling no clear direction. However, downside remains vulnerable and violation of 1.5547 handle, to confirm resumption of near-term bears. Penetration below 1.5458 breakpoint, to bring larger bears fully in play on the larger picture. Daily 20SMA at 1.5640 and former base at 1.5660, offer initial resistances and should ideally cap. Conversely, fresh rallies need to return above daily 10SMA at 1.5726, also yesterday’s high, to neutralize.
Res: 1.5619; 1.5640; 1.5660; 1.5726
Sup: 1.5587; 1.5547; 1.5500; 1.5458
USDJPY
The pair stabilizes above 123 handle, following yesterday’s dollar rally on supportive US data. Reversal pattern is forming on daily chart, as the price extends gains above daily 10SMA that capped yesterday’s action at 123.23 and now looking for daily 20SMA at 123.47, to spark fresh rally for covering Monday’s gap. Daily studies are turning into full bullish mode, with daily close above 20SMA, required to confirm and return above 123.87, last Friday’s close / daily Kijun-sen line, to shift focus higher. Corrective dips should be ideally contained by 122.90 zone, 38.2% retracement of 121.96/123.45 upleg and hourly higher base.
Res: 123.47; 122.87; 124.00; 124.36
Sup: 123.28; 122.90; 122.70; 122.53
AUDUSD
The pair came under pressure and reversed nearly 76.2% of Mon/Wed 0.7584/0.7736 rally, following yesterday’s recovery stall at 0.7736 and subsequent acceleration lower that confirmed a false break above daily 10/20SMA’s bear cross. With bears prevailing on all timeframes, downside remains under pressure, as the price action is holding in the lower side of short-term range, threatening retest of key supports at 0.7600, former base and 0.7584, 29 June low. Corrective rallies should be capped under falling daily 10SMA at 0.7696.
Res: 0.7655; 0.7696; 0.7715; 0.7736
Sup: 0.7620; 0.7600; 0.7584; 0.7531
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