Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Market movers ahead
PMIs are on the calendar for next week. We expect the Chinese HSBC/market manufacturing PMI to decline to 49.4 in September and at the moment it looks like the manufacturing PMI will continue to edge lower in the coming months.
In the euro area, we expect the recent slight decline in the manufacturing PMIs to have continued in September, bringing it down to 50.1.
In Germany, the IFO expectations and current situation are expected to decline further as geopolitical risks continue to weigh on sentiment.
We expect the figures for existing home sales in the US to maintain their upward trend, though with lower momentum than we have seen over the past couple of months.
Global macro and market themes
The US is the preferred place of investment at the moment as the sole pillar of strength in a world of hot spots.
European stocks should be back in favour as the economy recovers towards yearend.
More USD strength ahead as the Fed hikes are drawing closer. The market is still pricing in too few rate hikes from the Fed.
Chinese weakness in housing and manufacturing raises the chance of a rate cut later this year.
Focus
- We have revised down our forecasts and expect Finnish GDP to shrink by 0.4% in 2014 and to grow by only 0.8% in 2015. Russian sanctions and related uncertainty are the main reasons behind the revision (see .Research Finland: Russiansanctions and fiscal austerity hit Finnish economy, 17 September 2014).
This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to gains above 1.0750 after US data
EUR/USD manages to hold in positive territory above 1.0750 despite retreating from the fresh multi-week high it set above 1.0800 earlier in the day. The US Dollar struggles to find demand following the weaker-than-expected NFP data.
GBP/USD declines below 1.2550 following NFP-inspired upsurge
GBP/USD struggles to preserve its bullish momentum and trades below 1.2550 in the American session. Earlier in the day, the disappointing April jobs report from the US triggered a USD selloff and allowed the pair to reach multi-week highs above 1.2600.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,300 despite falling US yields
Gold stays on the back foot below $2,300 in the American session on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in negative territory below 4.6% after weak US data but the improving risk mood doesn't allow XAU/USD to gain traction.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Should you buy BTC here? Premium
Bitcoin (BTC) price shows signs of a potential reversal but lacks confirmation, which has divided the investor community into two – those who are buying the dips and those who are expecting a further correction.
Week ahead – BoE and RBA decisions headline a calm week
Bank of England meets on Thursday, unlikely to signal rate cuts. Reserve Bank of Australia could maintain a higher-for-longer stance. Elsewhere, Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions.