Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
USD/TRY 1H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: A downward correction from the mid-March seems to have ended at 2.54, and the currency pair is now advancing towards the key level at 2.6450. By breaching this level USD/TRY will confirm its long-term bullish intentions. At the same time, immediate support is at 2.61, represented by the lower trend-line of the cannel. If violated, this will imply a sell-off through the weekly PP at 2.5949 and down to 2.5850. However, a deeper decline is unlikely, considering this demand area is created by the 200-hour SMA, daily S1, and some of the recent lows. Meanwhile, the SWFX traders’ sentiment is distinctly bearish: three out of four open positions are currently short.
EUR/AUD 1H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: The Euro appears to be in a good position to appreciate relative to the Australian Dollar. From below the currency pair is well-supported at 1.3917 by the 200-hour SMA and weekly PP and at 1.3900 by the two-week trend-line. The nearest resistance level is at 1.3957 (daily PP), followed by the daily R1 at 1.4018, but the bullish momentum is expected to persist at least until 1.4061, while the base case scenario is a rally towards the upper boundary of the channel at 1.41, which is reinforced by the weekly R1. As for the SWFX sentiment, the market participants are largely short the Euro: 58% of positions are to profit from currency’s underperformance.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds below 1.0750 ahead of key US data
EUR/USD trades in a tight range below 1.0750 in the European session on Friday. The US Dollar struggles to gather strength ahead of key PCE Price Index data, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, and helps the pair hold its ground.
USD/JPY stays firm above 156.00 after BoJ Governor Ueda's comments
USD/JPY stays firm above 156.00 after surging above this level on the Bank of Japan's decision to leave the policy settings unchanged. BoJ Governor said weak Yen was not impacting prices but added that they will watch FX developments closely.
Gold price oscillates in a range as the focus remains glued to the US PCE Price Index
Gold price struggles to attract any meaningful buyers amid the emergence of fresh USD buying. Bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer amid sticky inflation help revive the USD demand.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
US core PCE inflation set to signal firm price pressures as markets delay Federal Reserve rate cut bets
The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen as the more influential measure of inflation in terms of Fed positioning. The index is forecast to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in March, matching February’s increase.