Most foreign currencies consolidated in the Far East after the embarrassingly weak US non-farm payrolls report vaulted most of them on Friday. The data more than ensured that the quantitative easing will continue in the medium term, despite the nominal decrease in amount. The Aussie was lifted by good local data. Yen advanced as well. The Canadian dollar remains under pressure after collapsing further to a near four-year low on additional weak local data – this time rising local unemployment. Most Asia-Pacific stock markets slipped.
The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!
Overnight
- Australia: Home loans rose 1.1% in November following an increase of 1.0% in October.
Today's economic calendar
- Italy: Industrial output for November
EUR – March
The LGR Model: Long since January 10
The March euro consolidated in the Far East after surging to a 1 1/2-week high on Friday. It tested three times the support from the trend line rising since July 9. Euro peaked at an over two-year high in thin volume on December 27. It trades around the 21-day exponential moving average. Euro formed a medium-term low on November 7 and a long-term bottom in July 2012.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and the LGR model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3715. Further resistance is at 1.3755. A long-term peak is at 1.3893.
Initial support is at 1.3620. Further support is at 1.3547 and 1.3470.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – March
The LGR Model: Long since January 10
The March Japanese yen advanced further to a 2 ½-week high above the 21-day exponential moving average after reversing on Friday from a one-week low. It marked an over five-year low on January 2. The yen has been falling since November 8, when it broke the bottom of a symmetrical triangle. The yen formed a long-term peak on June 13, 2012.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bearish but the LGR model is long.
Immediate resistance is at .9690. Further resistance is at .9793.
Initial support is at .9605. The next floor is .9565. The low of the downtrend is .9486.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – March
The LGR Model: Long since January 8
The March pound remains firm after marching up to an eight-day high on Friday. It trades above the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound ended 2013 at a 2 ½-year high. It formed a short-term bottom at a three-week low on December 17. The pound had formed a medium-term bottom on November 12 and a long-term bottom at a three-year low on July 9.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and the LGR model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.6490. The current peak is 1.6572.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.6405. The next supports are 1.6329 and 1.6215.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
CHF – March
The LGR Model: Short since January 2
The March Swiss franc was little changed in the Far East after advancing to a one-week high on Friday and marking a 1 ½-month low on Wednesday. The rally on Wednesday formed a piercing line bullish reversal. It had peaked at an over two-year high on December 27. The franc seems to have formed a double top pattern. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc bottomed at a 1 ½-month low on November 7. The franc formed a medium-term bottom on July 10 and a long-term bottom on May 22.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and the LGR model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.1115. Further resistance is at 1.1165.
Initial support is at 1.1035. Further support is at 1.0935.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
CAD – March
The LGR Model: Short since November 18
The March Canadian dollar remains under pressure after extending losses to a new 3 2/3-year low on Friday. It could see some mild recovery for a couple of days the next move down. It is trading well below the 21-day exponential moving average and is oversold. It had been free falling since November 19. The loonie peaked at a one-month high on October 22. A medium-term peak was formed on July 31.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and the LGR model is short.
Initial resistance is at .9220. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at a distant .9319.
Immediate support is at .9120. The next support is .9090 and .9035.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
AUD – March
The LGR Model: Long since January 10
The March Australian dollar extended its recovery to a one-month high after surging on Friday. It trades above the declining 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on December 18. It essentially reached the target of a head-and-shoulder formation before reversing. The Aussie formed a medium-term high on April 11 and a long-term top on January 10. It bottomed at a three-year low on August 5.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is bearish but the LGR model is long.
Immediate resistance is at .9035. Further resistance is at .9065 and .9110.
Initial support is at .8940. The next floors are .8890 and .8800. A long-term bottom is at .8765.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
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