Weekly Forex Risk Calendar. Week 11, 2016

We highly recommend saving the below events into your google calendar as a part of weekly routine. Please see further analysis below. It includes Tuesday to Friday trading sessions.

It looks like the third week of March will be a busy one. The next four sessions will focus mainly on Central Banks’ events. We have Monetary Policy Statement from Bank of Japan tomorrow. Then, long awaited FOMC Statement on Wednesday and Monetary Policy Summary from Bank of England on Thursday. Volatility is expected, especially after few recent surprises and panic market's reaction.
Markets expects chunk of good news for US Dollar. Inflation and retail sales are expected better than prior. If FED performs well during FOMC, we can see USD rally.

Tuesday, March 15th @ 12:30am - AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Tuesday, March 15th @ Tentative: - JPY - Monetary Policy Statement
Tuesday, March 15th @ Tentative: - JPY - BOJ Press Conference
Tuesday, March 15th @ 12:30pm - USD - Core Retail Sales m/m
Tuesday, March 15th @ 12:30pm - USD - PPI m/m
Tuesday, March 15th @ 12:30pm - USD - Retail Sales m/m
Tuesday, March 15th @ Tentative: - NZD - GDT Price Index
 
Wednesday, March 16th @ 9:30am - GBP - Average Earnings Index 3m/y
Wednesday, March 16th @ 12:30pm - USD - CPI m/m
Wednesday, March 16th @ 12:30pm - USD - Core CPI m/m
Wednesday, March 16th @ 6:0pm - USD - FOMC Statement
Wednesday, March 16th @ 6:0pm - USD - Federal Funds Rate
Wednesday, March 16th @ 6:0pm - USD - FOMC Press Conference
Wednesday, March 16th @ 9:45pm - NZD - GDP q/q
 
Thursday, March 17th @ 12:30am - AUD - Employment Change
Thursday, March 17th @ 12:30am - AUD - Employment Change
Thursday, March 17th @ 12:0pm - GBP - MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
Thursday, March 17th @ 12:0pm - GBP - Monetary Policy Summary
Thursday, March 17th @ 12:0pm - GBP - Official Bank Rate
Thursday, March 17th @ 12:30pm - USD - Unemployment Claims
 
Friday, March 18th @ 12:30pm - CAD - Core CPI m/m
Friday, March 18th @ 12:30pm - CAD - Core Retail Sales m/m  

Tuesday, March 15th @ Tentative: - JPY - Monetary Policy Statement
Tuesday, March 15th @ Tentative: - JPY - BOJ Press Conference
The market still expects BOJ to add to the existing QE program in the long term. Analysts don’t expect any changes in BOJ monetary policy for now. Inflation in Japan recently printed lower than expected number. This would add to the probability of BOJ increase in QE tomorrow. It’s debatable if adding more QE would have a negative impact on JPY at this stage. Even after Kuroda’s talk of negative interest rates, JPY rallied anyway. This could also be treated as “Nothing new” event by the market.
 
Tuesday, March 15th @ 12:30pm - USD - Core Retail Sales m/m
Tuesday, March 15th @ 12:30pm - USD - PPI m/m
Tuesday, March 15th @ 12:30pm - USD - Retail Sales m/m
A number of important reports are out at the same time. This could be a potential Dollar mover if the prints are far from expectations. All three reports are expected to be worse than prior. Core Retail Sales are expected to come out at a negative 0.2 vs 0.1 prior. This is usually not a big market mover but:
PPI m/m also is expected at a negative 0.2% vs 0.1% prior. It has a potential to move the Green Buck if the released figure is much different from expected.
Retail Sales m/m is likely to be overshadowed by the previous reports. The number is expected to be in line with others ( worse than prior)
These events must be looked at in line with the FOMC meeting the day after. Analysts expect FED to confirm more rate hikes this year. If PPI and Retail Sales will show deviation to the upside, Dollar could be a good buy before FOMC.
 
Tuesday, March 15th @ Tentative: - NZD - GDT Price Index
Fairly important report form NZD. Daily is a big part of the economy and the index price is highly correlated with the movements in NZD. Market expects 1.4%. GDT was printing slightly higher numbers over the last two months. As index is highly volatile, this could go either way. I advise to watch analysis on the day and the price at https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/

Wednesday, March 16th @ 9:30am - GBP - Average Earnings Index 3m/y
Earnings report will be released together with employment figures. Those two are closely watched by the Central Bank and the markets. They always have a potential to move GBP. Earnings are expected to tick up to 2% from 1.9% prior but the bias is to the downside. Unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 5.1%. Given the recent rally in Cable, this would be a good sell if the numbers print negative.

Wednesday, March 16th @ 12:30pm - USD - CPI m/m
Wednesday, March 16th @ 12:30pm - USD - Core CPI m/m
CPI is still an important measure for FED although they would rather look at the inflation measured by PCI. Normally, this would have a meaning in the market, but with FOMC the next day it will have a minimum impact. Inflation is expected to print 0.2% m/m but y/y stat is expected to show 2.1%, way in line with FED’s targets.
 
Wednesday, March 16th @ 6:0pm - USD - FOMC Statement
Wednesday, March 16th @ 6:0pm - USD - Federal Funds Rate
Wednesday, March 16th @ 6:0pm - USD - FOMC Press Conference
Long awaited FOMC. Rates are expected to stay put. There is no reason to believe that Janet Yellen would surprise by raising it. Fed watch shows almost no probabilities of the hike this week. All eyes will be pointing to the press conference and the Yellen’s outlook for the economy and the path of interest rates for the rest of 2016.
The picture is looking very good for US Dollar. Inflation and employment data showed signs of improvement since the last FOMC. The only disappointment was – Earnings report few week ago. Wage inflation contracted in US. This is the only negative piece in whole equation.
 
Wednesday, March 16th @ 9:45pm - NZD - GDP q/q
After RBNZ cut rate last week, GDP is expected to print a lower than prior number (0.7% vs 0.9%). The bias remains to the downside. Lower than expected number would spark sell NZD sell off in the markets. If we have hawkish statement from Yellen, short NZDUSD would be ideal play.

Thursday, March 17th @ 12:30am - AUD - Employment Change
Thursday, March 17th @ 12:30am - AUD - Employment Change
This report is always important for Aussie. It is expected to print 11.6K vs a negative 7.6K. Markets expect a massive improvement here. Given the recent good GDP numbers and long bias in Aussie, I would be expecting this number to keep up.
 
Thursday, March 17th @ 12:0pm - GBP - MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
Thursday, March 17th @ 12:0pm - GBP - Monetary Policy Summary
Thursday, March 17th @ 12:0pm - GBP - Official Bank Rate
 There are no changes expected to the BOE monetary policy. Look out for any votes for the cut. Otherwise – non-event.

Friday, March 18th @ 12:30pm - CAD - Core CPI m/m
Friday, March 18th @ 12:30pm - CAD - Core Retail Sales m/m
Market expects Core CPI at 0.5%, up from 0.3% prior.
Retail sales are also expected to improve (0.6 vs a negative 1.6%).