UK markets
Alex Salmond's moment in the sun has finally come. The Scottish are voting on the future of their country as we speak, but seeing as stocks with large exposure to Scotland are rallying it would suggest the support for the ‘Yes’ campaign is fading. Our binary bet on the outcome of the Scottish referendum is now showing an 18% chance of a ‘Yes’ vote. Traders were given a shock by the YouGov poll that put the ‘Yes’ campaign ahead nearly two weeks ago, but the sentiment has shifted to the ‘No’ side and traders have used the Salmond shake up as an opportunity to pick up cheap banking stocks.US markets
In the US, the Dow Jones is up 80 points at 17,237. US equities have extended their gains as traders prepare themselves for an interest rate rise in early 2015. The QE scheme is in its final stretch, and now traders are coming around to the idea that rates will not remain at rock bottom forever. Our clients are indicating a market capitalisation of $224 billion, the highest level since March, for Alibaba's IPO; a 37% premium over the company’s guidance ahead of its potentially record-setting float tomorrow.Commodities
Gold hit an eight-month low after the Fed hinted at a sooner -than-expected interest rate rise. Copper has also been hit bit by the strong US dollar as the cash injection by the PBoC did little to stem the fear that the world’s second largest economy is slowing down.FX
The euro is slowly crawling back the ground lost to the US dollar in the wake of FOMC meeting. It has made gains following the beginning of the TLTRO program, combined with some euphoria (however misplaced) over the ECB's voting rotation scheme. Sterling is having a stellar session on the day as the Scottish go to the polls for the referendum on independence, and the jump in the pound suggests that traders are pricing in a ‘No’ vote.
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EUR/USD holds below 1.0750 ahead of key US data
EUR/USD trades in a tight range below 1.0750 in the European session on Friday. The US Dollar struggles to gather strength ahead of key PCE Price Index data, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, and helps the pair hold its ground.
USD/JPY stays firm above 156.00 after BoJ Governor Ueda's comments
USD/JPY stays firm above 156.00 after surging above this level on the Bank of Japan's decision to leave the policy settings unchanged. BoJ Governor said weak Yen was not impacting prices but added that they will watch FX developments closely.
Gold clings to modest daily gains at around $2,350
Gold stays in positive territory at around $2,350 after closing in positive territory on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield edges lower ahead of US PCE Price Index data, allowing XAU/USD to stretch higher.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
US core PCE inflation set to signal firm price pressures as markets delay Federal Reserve rate cut bets
The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen as the more influential measure of inflation in terms of Fed positioning. The index is forecast to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in March, matching February’s increase.