Saxo Team of Analysts - HK
Saxo Capital Market HK Ltd
USD on the defensive ahead of key data
More weakness needed to establish EURUSD rally
USDCHF reversal disappointing for dollar bulls
Key developments in FX today
Most pairs are trading within their recent ranges, but the important development today was the USD getting thrown on the defensive again ahead of the key economic data on tap through the end of the week and after a soft ISM manufacturing survey today.
EURUSD above 1.0900, for example, makes it highly uncomfortable for the bears, though a proper breakout above recent multiple tests of the 1.0975 area needs to unfold to get a sense that a new upside trend is developing in EURUSD after two months of range trading.
Likewise, the USDCHF reversal is highly disappointing for the bullish outlook if we close below 1.0150 or so today, though the final local support area looks like 1.0120.
Note that spot gold is challenging the 200-day moving average near 1130-plus.
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