EUR/USD Forecast: poised to break below 1.1100


The EUR/USD pair fell down to 1.1114, a few pips above the key 1.1097 multi-year low posted last January. The pair fell below 1.1150, triggering stops even before European Services PMI were out. The figures were overall better than January ones, exception made by Italian one, but missed expectations of a steadier recovery in the area. The EZ also released its Retail Sales figures, up 1.1% in January, halting the bearish run.

Nevertheless, the bearish tone accelerated with the pair poised to break below the 1.1100 figure. In the 4 hours chart, the price was unable to overcome a strongly bearish 20 SMA, currently around 1.1180, whilst the technical indicators turned lower, with Momentum retreating from its midline and the RSI indicator heading south around 33.  Additional stops are likely standing below 1.1090, with a break below it fueling the slide down to 1.1050 in the short term, although further declines are unlikely ahead of ECB economic policy decision tomorrow. TO the upside, the mentioned 1.1150 level comes as the immediate resistance, followed by the 1.1180/1.1200 region.

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