Range bound trade continues in slow start to the week

Australian Dollar:

The Australian dollar began the week with no local data to provide direction during Asian markets and as expected struggled to move from the open of 92.74US cents. Lacklustre trade continued overnight as the Aussie edged lower to open this morning at 0.9261 against the Greenback with geopolitical events once again in the spotlight. Today will be the highlight of the economic calendar week locally for the Australian dollar with NAB Business confidence being released early on along with the Housing price index simultaneously. Investors are hoping the announcements will give the Aussie a jump start to what is predicted to be a fairly slow week.

• We expect a range today of 0.9220 – 0.9300

New Zealand Dollar:

The NZ dollar started Monday moderately slow labouring to move to far from the 84.59US cent handle. With no domestic figures released the Kiwi waited for overnight markets to hopefully get the higher yielding currency moving. US and European trade disappointed investors as they were unable to provide a spark to the currencies with the NZ dollar continuing to remain range bound, opening this morning at similar levels to yesterday at 84.59 against the US dollar. Today is once again light on the economic calendar as investors will have to wait on overnight markets to breathe life into currently dull trade.

• We expect a range today of 0.8420 – 0.8500

Great British Pound:

Market sentiment was slightly improved on Monday morning as geopolitical tensions which have taken the spotlight over the past week eased. The Sterling managed to rise off its 8 week low against the US dollar to open this morning stronger at 1.6788. The gain was underpinned by the geopolitical situations in the Ukraine and the Middle East appearing to be making positive strides overnight. The GBP correspondingly climbed by just over a quarter of a per cent against the Euro overnight and similarly strengthened versus the higher yielding AUD and NZ dollar to 1.8118 and 1.9841 respectively. Today will continue the trend of limited market data for the Sterling as the UK will look offshore to Europe and the US for guidance. 

• We expect a range today of 1.8060 – 1.8160

Majors:

As in line with most Mondays the Euro and US dollar remained dormant in trade for most of the Asian session. The two major currencies predominately wait for the European and US markets to open on Monday and once economic data is released watch as market direction takes shape. Unfortunately last night’s start to the week was driven purely on sentiment alone as no economic figures were announced. The market returned to being dictated by geopolitical concerns in the UK and the Middle East however this time tensions appeared to be subsiding and the US dollar gained however marginal. A ceasefire between Israel and Gaza along with reports Russia ended military exercises near the Ukraine border were positive news in the eyes of the market. Today investors will welcome economic data in the form of German sentiment and US jobs numbers as they hope to see a fresh breath of life into a slow start to the week.

Data releases:

• AUD: NAB business confidence, HPI q/q
• NZD: REINZ HPI m/m
• JPY: PPI y/y, 30-y Bond Auction, Revised Industrial Production m/m
• GBP: BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
• EUR: German ZEQ Economic Sentiment, ZEW Economic Sentiment
• USD: NFIB Small Business Index, JOLTS Job Openings, Federal Budget Balance